Most Iowa voters view control of Congress as a critical issue this election, Iowa Poll says
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With the midterm election a day away, the question of which party controls Congress is the issue most commonly rated as critical for Iowa voters, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll has found.
Given a choice of six issues, 68% of likely Iowa voters pick party control of the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives as a critical issue, the poll found.
Inflation (63%) and education policies (58%) were rated as critical by the next largest majorities of voters.
The poll of 801 Iowans who say they will definitely vote or who have already voted was conducted Oct. 31 through Nov. 3 by Selzer & Co., with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Fifty-three percent of likely Iowa voters rank abortion and health care as critical issues, followed closely by crime (52%).
For each of the six issues listed, respondents could choose whether the issue is “critical,” “important but not critical,” or “not that important.” Respondents could designate as many issues as critical as they wished.
More:Who's on my ballot in the Iowa 2022 midterm election?
Democrats, Republicans both view control of Congress as a critical issue
The new Iowa Poll found 76% of Democrats deem partisan control of Congress as critical, making it the issue selected most frequently by those voters.
It is the second most frequently selected issue for Republicans at 73%. And among independent likely voters, 58% view it as critical.
The three groups all select education policies as a critical issue at similar rates ― reaching 59% among Democrats and 58% among both Republicans and independents.
But on other issues, the poll found views vary dramatically among the three groups.
Republican voters are most likely to rate inflation a critical issue (84%). Inflation is also selected most often by independents (60%).
However, among Democrats, only 36% rate inflation as a critical issue. The only issue Democrats rate less frequently as critical is crime (31%).
After party control of Congress, Democrats most frequently choose abortion and health care as critical issues, at 72% and 70% respectively.
Following inflation and party control, Republicans most often choose crime as a critical issue (71%). Republicans least often rank as critical health care (43%) and abortion (42%).
Among independent voters, 50% view health care as a critical issue. That’s followed closely by abortion (49%) and crime (48%).
Why is party control an important issue among Iowa voters?
More than 70% of Republican and Democratic voters say the question of party control in Congress matters to them personally as a critical issue.
Debrah Maschke, a Democrat and poll respondent, said she had voted for Republican candidates in past elections. However, the 70-year-old retired Waverly resident said she does not support the shift the Republican Party has taken since Donald Trump was elected president.
In particular, she said she was disappointed that more Republicans didn’t denounce the former president’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen.
"I feel like we’ve lost the Republican Party,” she said. “The Republican Party we knew of seven years ago is the minority Republican Party.”
But Bill Van Lent, a 62-year-old business owner in West Des Moines and poll respondent, said it’s important that Republicans gain control of Congress to counterbalance President Joe Biden.
Van Lent said he wants a new approach to dealing with the economy and he believes the Biden administration’s policies the past two years likely contributed to inflation, particularly the pandemic-related relief subsidies.
"I understand both the Trump and Biden administrations’ thinking early on that it’s necessary, but it was extended far too long,” he said.
He said he believes the Republican Party would be more likely to be more fiscally conservative in how they manage taxpayers’ money.
Inflation is the top issue for Republicans ahead of midterms
Among Republican voters, more see inflation as a critical issue (84%) than which party controls the U.S. Senate or House (73%).
Recently, the Federal Reserve boosted interest rates by 0.75 percentage point, the fourth straight historically large rate hike. The move was part of the Fed’s efforts to tamp down soaring inflation in the U.S., which has increased 8.2% in October from a year earlier.
Inflation has fallen since June, when it hit a 40-year high of 9.1%. The cost for groceries, gas and other goods has begun to moderate, according to economists, but many are still feeling the pinch.
Poll participant Bill Swift is a 74-year-old in Cedar Rapids who works part-time as a bus attendant for the Cedar Rapids Community School District. He plans to vote for Republican candidates in congressional races.
Swift said he worries about the cost of heating his home this winter as well as other expenses, and believes Republicans are better suited to address the country's aching economy.
“I don’t think the Democrats will change anything to make anything better,” Swift said. “I think with a rush of Republicans in the Senate and House, they can somehow help these issues, even if (Biden) is still in office.”
More:See where Iowa candidates stand on key issues in the 2022 midterm elections
Abortion remains a critical issue for Democrats
At 72%, abortion has remained as one of the most important issues for Democratic voters leading up to the 2022 election.
In July, just weeks after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the Iowa Poll found 70% of Iowa adults who identified as Democrats viewed abortion as critical, making it their top issue among 12 issues tested.
Constance Romanowski, a 61-year-old Perry resident who works in the tech industry, said the issue of which party controls the House and Senate ties closely to the issue of abortion.
The federal court’s decision placed “a new lens on things,” she said. She plans to vote for Democratic candidates across the board.
“My biggest concern with that is that we’re going to start seeing other rights trimmed away,” she said. “That scares me.”
An October Iowa Poll found Iowa adults overwhelmingly supported making abortion legal in cases of rape or incest (85%) or to save the life of the pregnant person (89%). Overall, 61% believed abortion should be legal in most or all cases.
More:Iowa early voting is lower than in past midterm elections; impact on final turnout unclear
What polling over the years says about Iowans’ views on party control of Congress
The Iowa Poll has not asked respondents before whether they view party control of the U.S. House or Senate as a critical issue.
However, in October 2020, survey respondents were asked whether their support of Joni Ernst for the U.S. Senate was more about their enthusiasm for her as a candidate or more out of a desire to keep Republican control of the Senate.
Fifty-four percent said it was desire for Republican control of the Senate, while 35% said it came from enthusiasm for the candidate.
The same question was asked about Theresa Greenfield, the Democrat challenging Ernst. Forty-eight percent said their support was driven by the desire to help Democrats gain control of the Senate; 41% said it was enthusiasm for the candidate.
In a September 2006 poll, just 15% of respondents in four of Iowa’s then-five congressional districts said the decision on whom to vote for in Congress was mostly about which party they wanted to have control of the House. Sixty-three percent said it was about the candidate’s stance on issues.
In that same poll, 19% of respondents in what was then Iowa’s 1st Congressional District said their vote was about party control of the House, while 62% said it was mostly about a candidate’s stance on issues.
Michaela Ramm covers health care for the Des Moines Register. She can be reached at mramm@registermedia.com, at (319) 339-7354 or on Twitter at @Michaela_Ramm.
About the Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted October 31-November 3, 2022, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 801 Iowans ages 18 or older who say they will definitely vote or have already voted in the 2022 general election for governor, U.S. Senate, and other offices.
Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 1,118 Iowa adults with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data.
Questions based on the sample of 801 Iowa likely voters have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.
Iowa Poll methodology
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa Poll: How do voters view inflation, abortion in this election
