Most A-level and GCSE results will be decided by computer modelling, not teachers, in major U-turn

Most A-level and GCSE results will be decided by statistical modelling rather than teachers' predicted grades in a major about-turn by the Government.

Teachers' predicted grades will serve "little or no purpose" in the modelling that determines the majority of pupils' results, sources said.

Concerns over the reliability of teachers' predictions – in particular their tendency to inflate pupils' grades – led to a decision by Ofqual, the exam regulator, not to rely on them.

Hundreds of thousands of students will receive their A-level and GCSE results next month, despite all exams being axed this year.

Ofqual has promised that "no child will be penalised" by this year's system and that all exam grades will be as fair and valid as those in previous years.

But headteachers warned that this will be a year in which some pupils are "bound to feel victims in a process which is not of their own making".

Geoff Barton, the general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL), said Ofqual have done the best it could but added: "This was always going to be a problematic year. There will be people who think the system isn't fair this year, but the reality is that Covid isn't fair."

In March, the Department for Education (DfE) said teachers who "know their students well" will be asked to send exam boards the grade they believe the student would have received if exams had gone ahead.

Teachers were told to take into account pupils' marks in mock exams as well as the quality of their work throughout the course when coming up with the grade. Ministers said exam boards would combine this information with other data to produce grade for each student, but this will no longer be the main factor for most students.

"If Ofqual are able to use statistical standardisation to produce grades, then in effect the teachers' predicted grades serve little or no purpose," a source told The Telegraph.

"Teachers by nature are optimists – they want the best for their students. I don't think anyone has ever thought they would be sufficiently accurate that they could be implemented as results."

Study finds teachers inflated marks

An analysis by Ofqual, published earlier this week, found that teachers bumped up predicted A-level marks by 12 per cent on average and GCSE marks by nine per cent.

The watchdog said it was "not surprising" that grades predicted by teachers were optimistic since teachers "naturally want to do their best for their students".

Ofqual said their researchers tested out 12 different statistical models and chose one which drew on a number of factors, including data on pupils' previous education attainment as well as previous results of students at the same school.

Under the model, the "rank order" which teachers drew up for this year's students will also play an important role in determining grades.

Mr Barton said it was "inevitable" that teachers' predicted grades are optimistic, adding the model was "the fairest thing they could do".

Ofqual insist that teachers' predicted grades are an "important component" as they helped teachers to draw up the rank order. The predicted grades were also useful for testing out different statistical models and for "quality assurance" of the end results, the watchdog said.

For new schools, which do not have historic data, as well as small schools or those in which low numbers of students are taking particular subjects, teachers' predictions will be the "primary source" of evidence for grades.

"From the data that we have reviewed, we expect the majority of grades students receive will be the same as their centre assessment grades, reflecting the skills, professionalism and integrity of those involved," Ofqual said.

A DfE spokesman said: "The vast majority of students will receive a calculated grade this summer that enables them to move on to the next stage of their education or training.

"Ofqual has developed a robust process that will take into account a range of evidence, including grades submitted by schools and colleges, with the primary aim of ensuring grades are as fair as possible for all students."