Most Thais Expect Political Chaos to Persist This Year: Survey

Pathom Sangwongwanich
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(Bloomberg) -- Most Thais expect domestic political turmoil to persist in 2024, a survey showed, though the majority foresee Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin remaining in office.

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About 45.7% of survey participants expect the discord to be at the same level, with 28.4% projecting heightened turbulence, according to a survey by the National Institute of Development Administration. The poll was conducted via telephone between Dec. 12 and 20 among 1,310 Thai nationals aged 18 and above.

About 14.3% of respondents predict the situation will ease in 2024, while 7% anticipate no disarray in Thai political developments, the Nida poll showed. Around 4.7% are either indifferent and uninterested, or didn’t respond.

Political twists and turns dominated Thai politics in 2023 as the May general election ended nearly a decade of military-backed rule, and former premier Thaksin Shinawatra returned from exile after 15 years. Srettha was sworn into office in September after months of political stalemate and wrangling that caused a partial policy paralysis and an exodus of foreign funds.

About 39.2% in the Nida poll expect Srettha to remain in office this year, and 20.5% project a Cabinet reshuffle.

Two verdicts are set to be delivered later this month by the Constitutional Court. It will rule on a case on Jan. 24 against Pita Limjaroenrat — then-leader of the Move Forward Party when it won the most parliamentary seats in the election — about his shareholding in a media company.

The court will also issue a ruling on Jan. 31 on whether Move Forward and Pita violated the charter by campaigning to amend the country’s lese majeste law.

The 250-member Senate will also face changes in May that will present a crucial turning point in Thai politics. The senators will no longer have the power to elect a prime ministerial candidate, an authority given to them by a military-drafted constitution in 2017. New senators will also be chosen this year.

READ: What to Watch For as Thai Politics Promises More Drama in 2024

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