Most UMC disaffiliations in the South: New report outlines latest in ongoing split

Liam Adams, Nashville Tennessean
·3 min read
Traditionalist Methodists gathered in May 2022 to celebrate the launch of the Global Methodist Church, a more conservative breakaway denomination. About a quarter of all UMC churches disaffiliated by the end of 2023, many of which to join the Global Methodist Church.
Traditionalist Methodists gathered in May 2022 to celebrate the launch of the Global Methodist Church, a more conservative breakaway denomination. About a quarter of all UMC churches disaffiliated by the end of 2023, many of which to join the Global Methodist Church.

Twenty United Methodist Church regional conferences saw at least 30% of their churches leave the denomination in the past five years.

Chief among those regional authorities was the Northwest Texas Conference at 81% of churches disaffiliated, or a process through which churches leave the UMC, according to the Lewis Center for Church Leadership, a research center out of the UMC-affiliated Wesley Theological Seminary in Washington D.C.

A UMC policy allowing for disaffiliation expired at the end of 2023, effectively ending the wave of disaffiliations beginning in 2019 amid a splintering in the largely Nashville-based UMC. The Lewis Center published its third and final report on disaffiliations, which includes similar data to earlier reports but offers a more definitive analysis of the past and predictions for the future.

“If past divisions are predictive, there will be a host of partisan narratives,” lead research Lovett Weems, emeritus distinguished professor at Wesley, said in an online post that accompanied the recent report. “What will be most needed are objective scholars who can go beyond statistical data to representative surveys and qualitative research to answer some of the questions.”

The Lewis Center’s ongoing disaffiliation study has been a credible resource for disaffiliation data, while it’s also cut through competing narratives about the drivers and consequences of disaffiliation. Below are some highlights from the latest report.

Prior disaffiliation report: United Methodist Church disaffiliation movement in US largely white, Southern & male-led: New report shows

Demographics

The UMC, the largest mainline Protestant denomination in the U.S., lost about a quarter of its total churches between 2019-2023 due to disaffiliations, said the new Lewis Center report. All in the U.S. — due to policy restrictions for non-U.S.-based UMC churches — the disaffiliated churches tracked with UMC-wide statistics. The median church size for the UMC and specifically for disaffiliated churches was 38 members. Congregation size at 63% of disaffiliating churches was 50 members or fewer.

A minority of all disaffiliating churches are led by full-time pastors, called active elders, or women pastors. Ninety-seven percent of the disaffiliating churches are predominantly white.

Regional differences

Disaffiliations in the UMC’s jurisdictions encompassing the South accounted for 71% of all disaffiliations.

The Lewis Center said the geographic landscape of disaffiliation clearly parallels the last schism of a similar scale when the Methodist Episcopal Church, South, formed in 1844 due to a division over slavery.

Key stats for the future

Annual conferences are already adjusting budgets and staff structures in response to a sudden loss of churches. But the latest Lewis Center report more clearly illustrates the extent of that impact.

According to the Lewis Center report, the following regional conferences (known as “annual conferences”) lost the greatest proportion of churches:

  • Northwest Texas (81%)

  • North Alabama (52%)

  • Texas (50%)

  • South Georgia (50%)

  • Kentucky (49%)

  • Central Texas (44%)

  • Alabama-West Florida (43%)

  • North Carolina (41%)

  • North Georgia (41%)

  • Mississippi (38%)

  • Western Pennsylvania (38%)

  • Tennessee-Western Kentucky (38%)

  • East Ohio (36%)

  • Louisiana (36%)

  • West Ohio (35%)

  • Florida (34%)

  • Western North Carolina (33%)

  • Holston (32%)

  • New Mexico (31%)

  • Indiana (30%)

Independence vs the Global Methodist Church

On the other side, the Lewis Center said many disaffiliating churches are choosing to remain independent instead of joining new groups that emerged out of the UMC’s splintering, chief among them is the Global Methodist Church. The more conservative breakaway denomination admitted 4,605 churches as of Jan. 1, according to Global Methodist Church chief executive Rev. Keith Boyette.

The future journey for disaffiliated, yet independent churches will speak to which grievances — theological positions on LGBTQ rights versus disillusionment with UMC bureaucracy — have most influenced the UMC’s splintering.

Liam Adams covers religion for The Tennessean. Reach him at ladams@tennessean.com or on social media @liamsadams.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: United Methodist Church: Most disaffiliations from UMC in the South