Mother Nature will provide motorists a break, but don't expect it to last too long

Ed Semmler, South Bend Tribune
·3 min read

Mother Nature will give Thanksgiving travelers a break at the start of the upcoming holiday, but don’t count her good will to last indefinitely.

The National Weather Service is predicting that temperatures will reach the low- to mid-40s through Thursday, likely sufficient to clear the roads from leftover ice and snow.

That’s good news for the estimated 54.6 million motorists that AAA predicts will travel 50 miles or more from home for the holiday. Though that number is slightly below pre-pandemic levels, the auto club predicted travel in Indiana and Illinois will be the busiest since 2005.

According to the AAA forecast, about 2.8 million people from Illinois and another 1.3 million Hoosiers will travel by car, air or other modes of transportation to Thanksgiving destinations.

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About 89% of those traveling for the holiday will drive, though gas prices are still about 30 cents higher than a year ago, according to GasBuddy, which provides real-time pump prices in the United States and Canada.

“Higher gas prices don’t seem to be enough to stop people from traveling to be with family and friends,” Molly Hart, a spokeswoman for AAA ― The Auto Group, said in a release.

“We found that when gas prices are high, travelers look to offset the added cost by spending less on a hotel, shopping or dining out,” she added.

AAA said travelers can expect the greatest traffic congestion Monday through Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Traffic will be a bit lighter during the morning and late evening hours and on Thanksgiving Day.

Similarly, return travel will be lightest in the mornings and in the evenings, according to AAA, though GasBuddy is predicting the roads will be busiest between 8 a.m. and 11 a.m. on Friday.

Higher prices for gasoline and airline tickets aren't stopping people from traveling for the Thanksgiving holiday.
Higher prices for gasoline and airline tickets aren't stopping people from traveling for the Thanksgiving holiday.

AAA said travelers also should expect congestion at airports as volumes will reach 99% percent of what they were in 2019, prior to the near shutdown in travel caused by the pandemic.

Beyond the possibility of congestion, motorists from the Michiana area also should pay attention to the forecast when planning their return trips or outings over the weekend.

A new system could roll into the area Thursday night, increasing the chances for rain and an outside chance for some snow through the weekend.

“While some uncertainty still exists with a potential system on Thanksgiving, there's always a chance for some wintery precipitation this time of year,” said Chris Roller, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in North Webster, adding that the forecast is currently calling for highs of around 40 through the weekend..

“But if you’re traveling, it’s always good to see what you’re getting into,” he added.

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Though November came in like a lamb, it quickly transformed into a lion by delivering below average temperatures and above average snowfall over the past week or so.

As of the weekend, South Bend already reached 25.2 inches of snow for the month, surpassing 1951 as the snowiest November when 23.4 inches of snow had fallen by the same date.

But it’s hard to say whether the cold and frosty conditions will continue.

Those leaving the greater South Bend area will be given a break through Thanksgiving, but the possibility of a wintery mix returns to the area starting Thursday late afternoon or early evening.
Those leaving the greater South Bend area will be given a break through Thanksgiving, but the possibility of a wintery mix returns to the area starting Thursday late afternoon or early evening.

The Climate Prediction Center says there are equal chances of both below and above average temperatures for the area while it’s also calling for higher than usual precipitation because of the influence of La Nina, Roller said.

If the scale tips toward colder-than-normal temperatures, there’s a chance the South Bend region could be in for a good amount of snow this season.

That’s why AAA suggests motorists should have their tires, wiper blades, oil and batteries checked before hitting the road, while also considering the possibility of adding some emergency supplies in the event of a breakdown or delay.

The certainty of clear roads is no longer in the forecast.

Email Tribune staff writer Ed Semmler at esemmler@sbtinfo.com.

This article originally appeared on South Bend Tribune: Thanksgiving travel rebounds despite higher prices and chance for snow