Mother Nature turning the heat up on Maine, NH, all of New England this weekend

I don't think we're in Maine any more, Toto.

Mother Nature could have some residents of the region making a remark like that this weekend, as weather systems off the mid-Atlantic coast and occurring in the western U.S. cause Maine, New Hampshire — and other parts of New England — to feel more like Florida at this time of year.

Starting Thursday and heading into the weekend, temperatures in the high 70s and up to the mid-80s were giving people a small taste of summer from Maine into southern New England, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service.

"Really the driver for everything along the East Coast is an area of low pressure that's off the mid-Atlantic coastline. To the west warm air is able to surge north," said Howard Silverman of NOAA's Eastern Region Regional Operations Center, speaking by phone on Wednesday. "The bottom line is, a warm line is coming up from the Gulf coast."

In meteorological circles, this pattern of weather is called "ridging," where there is "an elongated area of relatively high atmospheric pressure," according to NOAA. This air is compressed and becomes more dense, warming as it descends and resulting in sunny, cloudless skies.

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With stormy weather also shaping up in the western U.S., "you have warmer air that's being squeezed" between the western storm systems and the conditions off the mid-Atlantic coast.

The warm air will come through the center of the country from the Gulf coast, sweeping up into the Great Lakes and up through New England, he said.

In Maine, some temperature records are forecast "at least to be approached, if not met," Silverman said.

"There are a couple of forecast highs we're going to be looking out for in Maine on Thursday, also a couple on Friday," he said, specifically citing Caribou, Bangor, and Millinocket, Maine.

Higher-than-usual temps are expected to be more widespread on Saturday.

Possible record-setting temperatures forecasted for Maine

On Thursday, NOAA predicts the potential for records to be met or exceeded in Caribou, Maine and Bangor, Maine. For Caribou, the forecast is for 77 degrees Fahrenheit, nearing the record of 78 degrees set in 1992. For Bangor the forecast is for 82, nearing the record of 83 set in 1991.

Friday's forecast for Caribou is a high of 83, exceeding the record of 78 set in 1992; and for Millinocket the forecast is for 83, just above the record of 82 set in 1911.

On Saturday, temperatures in Caribou, Bangor and Millinocket are looking to reach, or topple, records set in 1961.

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Caribou's Saturday forecast is 83 -- the record in 1961 was 81.

Millinocket's Saturday forecast is 87, the same as the 1961 record.

Bangor's Saturday forecast is 86, close to the record of 87 set on the same day in 1961.

Possible record-setting temperatures also predicted for other parts of New England

Temperatures at or exceeding records are also predicted for Manchester, New Hampshire and Westfield, Massachusetts. Manchester is looking to reach 84, just higher than the record of 81 set in 2018, while Westfield could reach 81, just below the record of 82 set in 1930.

In the Portsmouth, New Hampshire, area, temperatures in the mid-70s are expected during the weekend.

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Additionally, Montpelier, Vermont could see temperatures in the mid-80s for the next few days.

Temperature maps for the weekend are showing reds, yellows and oranges through the middle of the country, from Texas to Maine.

According to the National Weather Service, temps will soar to nearly 100 in Texas and the low 90s in the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, Florida will see temps in the high 70s to mid-80s.

It'll be summer-like, but it's not time to dive into the waters of New England

People are cautioned against taking a running leap into their local lakes or rushing head-long into the surf along the coast locally, despite the warm weather. This is something local residents know well.

"The water is still significantly cold," warned Silverman, noting the water in Maine and other parts of New England can still cause hypothermia if you submerge for too long.

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The National Weather Service's weather center in Gray, Maine has also issued a warning on its Twitter feed, cautioning, "Cold Water Safety Reminder... With high temperatures expected to reach into the 80s over the next few days, don't forget the water is still in the 40s! There have been multiple drownings in NH & ME this spring already."

The service notes the current low water temperatures can cause cold shock in one minute, incapacitation within 10 minutes and hypothermia within an hour.

Silverman also cautions that the warmer temperatures can cause issues as well.

"After the winter, the body being exposed to conditions like that does create a little bit of heat stress," he said.

Is this all a sign of climate change?

Are the predicted higher-than-usual temperatures a sign of climate change?

Not by themselves, Silverman said. Unseasonably high temperatures can and do come and go, depending on weather patterns.

"In May, temperatures may potentially be reaching the mid-70s to lower 80s. That can happen at times. It's not frequent, but it's certainly possible," he said. "When it comes to weather you don't have a steady state of the atmosphere every day. You have spots that are warmer, other areas that are colder."

Climate change is something that is seen over a much longer period of time.

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"One would need to take the observations for a given month, and a given site and compile that over 10, 15, 20 years, average that out and see where the trends are," Silverman explained.

There are certainly warmer conditions out there, he said, "but as I said, significant warmth does happen in May. It's just not something that happens every single week or every year."

As the weekend comes to a close, the area of low pressure lurking off the coast of Carolina, he said, is expected to move north, "then a cold front will gradually make its way down to New England."

"Sunday it'll become cloudier, with greater chance for showers," he said, and temperatures will fall to a more seasonable level.

This article originally appeared on Portsmouth Herald: Maine, NH weather forecast to heat up over the weekend