What the MS Coast needs to know about Hurricane Agatha: Strength, forecast, more

Justin Mitchell
·2 min read

Hurricane Agatha likely will be on the cusp of Category 3 strength when the storm makes landfall in Mexico on Monday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said in its 10 a.m. update.

The storm has maximum winds of 110 mph and is expected to maintain those wind speeds as it moves inland. The core of the storm is expected to move over the state of Oaxaca, Mexico, the National Weather Service said.

“The satellite presentation of the system has been (in a) relatively steady state for the past several hours, with hints of an eye occasionally appearing within the central dense overcast,” the NWS said in its 10 a.m. discussion. “Convection remains quite deep and symmetric around the center.”

Bands of rain are already falling across southern Mexico, and the country should prepare for “life-threatening winds” and “destructive waves” on the east side of the system. Flash flooding and mudslides are also possible, the NWS said.

Agatha is expected to quickly weaken once it makes landfall, but there is a chance for redevelopment in the Gulf of Mexico. Here’s what you need to know from the National Hurricane Center:

  • As of 10 a.m. Monday, there’s a 40% chance the remnants of Agatha could develop into a tropical system in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, near the Yucatan Peninsula, later in the week.

  • “Some gradual development is possible within this system in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico around mid-week or in the northwest Caribbean by the latter part of this week as it drifts eastward or northeastward,” the NWS said.

  • The area of low pressure will dump heavy rain on southern Mexico, Guatemala and Belize later in the week.

  • If the system strengthens into a tropical storm or hurricane once it hits the Gulf, it would be Alex, the first named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

  • The system is not expected to be felt on the Mississippi Coast, but weather forecasters in Florida are keeping a close eye on Agatha and the potential Gulf redevelopment.

You can check the National Weather Service website for the latest updates from the tropics.