MTSU football vs. Western Kentucky: Scouting report, score prediction for homecoming game
Middle Tennessee State's football team will celebrate homecoming against archrival Western Kentucky in a Conference USA battle Saturday (2:30 p.m. kickoff, ESPN+).
The Blue Raiders (3-3, 0-2 C-USA) have lost two in a row since a stunning 45-31 win over No. 25 Miami three weeks ago. MTSU dropped a 41-14 decision at Alabama-Birmingham last week.
Western Kentucky (3-3, 1-1) has also dropped two in a row, including a 31-28 loss to Texas-San Antonio last week.
Here is a scouting report on the game, including a score prediction by The Daily News Journal's Cecil Joyce:
More:How UAB racked up almost 600 yards of offense in win over MTSU
Hilltopper philosophy hasn't changed
Western Kentucky graduated QB Bailey Zappe and most of his top receivers and lost offensive coordinator Zach Kittley, who moved on to Texas Tech, but the offensive philosophy that led to one of the nation's most high-powered offenses last year remains.
The Hilltoppers like to sling the ball with a transfer quarterback. Graduate student Austin Reed, a West Florida transfer, has completed 178-of-248 for 2,036 yards and 19 touchdowns with just four interceptions. He led West Florida to a Division II national title in 2019, throwing for more than 4,000 yards and 40 TDs. He threw for 3,418 yards and 38 TDs his senior season in 2021.
WKU is averaging 40 points a game, largely due to a 73-point outburst in the team's 73-0 C-USA win over Florida International. The Hilltoppers are averaging 141 yards a game on the ground (4.8 per carry).
MTSU defense needs turnaround
A high-powered offense isn't the ideal opponent when your defense has struggled, but MTSU's defense will have to find a way to slow down the Hilltoppers in order to get back on track.
The Blue Raiders have allowed 1,171 total yards in the past two games (590 to UTSA and 581 to UAB). Western Kentucky enters the game averaging just under 500 yards a game in total offense.
A big key to the Blue Raiders getting the defense untracked is taking advantage of a stout defensive front that combined for 16 sacks over the first four games but had just three against UTSA and none against UAB.
MTSU also caused nine turnovers in its first five games but none against the Blazers last week.
Hilltoppers tough against the run
Western Kentucky hasn't been easy to run on this season. The Hilltoppers are allowing 130 yards a game on the ground, but just a 3.3 average per carry. They are allowing 244 yards passing per contest.
MTSU has found more of a running attack behind Frank Peasant. The junior has 76 carries for 361 yards and six TDs.
The Blue Raiders rushed for 140 yards in the loss to UAB, averaging 3.6 per carry. MTSU is averaging 112 yards a game on the ground (a number skewed by gaining just 12 in an opening-game loss to James Madison), and just 3.2 per carry.
Cunningham gets first start vs. 'Toppers
Chase Cunningham will get his first taste as a starter in the MTSU-WKU rivalry.
Cunningham took over the starting job last season, but suffered a season-ending knee injury the game before the Blue Raiders played the Hilltoppers.
Cunningham, who is on the watch list for the College Sports Communicators Comeback Player of the Year award, is 145-of-219 for 1,564 yards and nine touchodwns this season.
Score prediction
WKU 38, MTSU 31: The Hilltoppers are another in a list of explosive offenses the Blue Raiders have had to face in the first seven games, and that should create a shootout between the teams.
Reach Cecil Joyce at cjoyce@dnj.com and on Twitter @Cecil_Joyce.
This article originally appeared on Murfreesboro Daily News Journal: MTSU football: Scouting report for C-USA game vs. Western Kentucky
