How much snow will we get this winter? Here's what the Old Farmer's Almanac predicts

Victoria E. Freile, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
Updated ·5 min read
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Fall is almost over and will soon be followed by what the Old Farmer's Almanac describes as a frigid and snowy winter for much of the nation, including New York.

The 2024 Old Farmer's Almanac predicts snowfall above normal in the Northeast and seasonably cold weather.

The Old Farmer's Almanac website map outlines a “cold and snowy” winter for much of New York state, describing this season as a "winter wonderland" with above-normal snow, and "normal to colder-than-normal temperatures" in areas that typically receive snow.

The almanac predicts snowstorms, showers and flurries to begin as early as mid-November in parts of the Northeast and Midwest and last through the start of spring, ensuring a prolonged season of chilly nights. It also predicts that the southern and southwestern United States will see cooler weather and drought-relieving rain. The Pacific Northwest is expected to remain relatively dry and cold through the winter, with occasional storms that could bring some rain, according to the almanac.

According to the almanac, the lower lakes region (which includes Rochester, Buffalo and Syracuse), will see "above normal" snowfall, with the snowiest times from late December through most of January and in mid-February. The almanac also predicts a "colder than average" winter, with the season's coldest temperatures expected in early and late December and from January through mid-February.

Old Farmer's Almanac winter outlook for New York

According to the almanac, here's the prediction for other parts of New York:

  • In Utica and Albany, both within the Northeast region, snowfall and temperatures are both expected to be "above normal" this winter. The snowiest stretches are expected to occur in mid-to late November, mid-December and early to mid-January. The coldest periods are predicted to occur in mid- to late November, early to mid-January and early to mid-February.

  • In Elmira, Binghamton and Ithaca, all part of the Appalachian region, winter will be colder than normal with "above normal" snowfall. The snowiest spells will occur in late December, mid- to late-January and early to mid-February and the coldest stretch is expected to run from early January through mid-February.

  • In the New York City area, which is part of the Atlantic corridor region, where both snowfall and temperatures are predicted to be "above normal," with the snowiest periods expected at the end of December, in late January and mid-February. The coldest days are expected to run from late-January to mid-February.

According to its website, the almanac makes long-range forecasts using solar science, the study of sunspots and other solar activity; climatology, the study of prevailing weather patterns; and meteorology, the study of the atmosphere.

“We predict weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity,” the website states. “Our forecasts emphasize temperature and precipitation deviations from averages, or normals. These are based on 30-year statistical averages prepared by government meteorological agencies.”

This year's forecast prediction is influenced by the El Nino, a natural climate phenomenon marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. When this happens, it increases the chances for warmer-than average temperatures across the northern portion of the country.

Last winter, 50.4 inches of snow fell in Rochester, with the snowiest month of March tallying 20.5 inches at the Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester International Airport, according to the National Weather Service in Buffalo. The normal seasonal snowfall average is around 102 inches.

Rochester's snowiest season in the last two decades was in 2002-03, when 135.2 inches fell. The least snowy season in the last 20 years was this past winter, according to the Weather Service. The least snowy winter on record was in 1932-33, when only 29.2 inches fell.

Rochester's weird winter: See the surprising 2022-23 snowfall total, temperatures

While flurries often fly in Rochester as early as October, the first measurable snowfall of the season typically lands in November. Snow can fall here as late as May, though it is uncommon.

How accurate is the Old Farmer's Almanac?

How accurate was the almanac's forecast last winter?

The 2022-23 winter season was one of extremes – two record-breaking snowstorms in Buffalo, including a late December blizzard that brought more than 4 feet of snow and in which more than 40 people died, was one such example.

March is weather wildcard in Rochester: Look back at some of the most memorable storms

Much of the mid-Atlantic region "underperformed" on what was predicted as an above-normal snowfall season. Rochester, tallied roughly half of its annual snowfall for the season, while Buffalo was well above normal with a historic 133.6 inches of snow

The Almanac considers its accuracy in predicting the precipitation departure from normal to be spot on. It considers its temperature prediction for the Northeast a miss, which was "a reflection of how abnormal weather patterns have been."

According to the Weather Service, the monthly temperature averages in Rochester last winter were between 2 and 4 degrees above normal for most of last winter.

The almanac reported its overall accuracy rate for the U.S. last winter was lower than most years. Last winter's accuracy rate was 70%, below the almanac's traditional average of 80%.

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Snow prediction 2024: What the Old Farmer's Almanac says