How much storm surge will Hurricane Ian bring to Florida? See the risk by area

Michelle Marchante, Devoun Cetoute
·3 min read
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All of Florida’s Gulf Coast is under a storm surge warning as monstrous Hurricane Ian made landfall Wednesday afternoon.

Ian is battering Florida with powerful gusty winds, heavy rain and a life-threatening storm surge that could reach up to 18 feet in some parts of the state.

Storm surge is rising water pushed onto land by a storm’s wind and above or beyond the regular tide levels an area experiences, according to the National Hurricane Center. Flooding from storm surge depends on several factors including a storm’s track, strength, speed and size.

READ MORE: Hurricane Ian makes landfall in southwest Florida with ‘catastrophic’ winds and surge

And Ian is a powerful storm.

The dangerous Category 4 hurricane was on the cusp of a Cat 5, but weakened to maximum sustained winds at 140 mph with higher gusts. It made landfall at Cayo Costa on Florida’s western coast near Fort Myers.

READ MORE: Hurricane Ian makes landfall at Cayo Costa. What to know about the Florida location

Which part of the state will see the most storm surge?

Here’s what forecasters say:

How much storm surge will Ian bring to Florida and where?

The National Hurricane Center in a 5 p.m. update said it expects the most storm surge, 12 to 18 feet, will be along Southwest Florida’s coast from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor.

Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach could see 8 to 12 feet of storm surge. And from east Cape Sable to Chokoloskee, 5 to 8 feet of storm surge.

“No one alive has seen 12 feet of storm surge in that area, and many areas could take years to recover. Please be safe!” tweeted Eric Blake, a senior meteorologist for the hurricane center.

In South Florida, Key West broke a storm surge record overnight with more than two feet of storm surge, the third-highest water level on record behind 2005’s Wilma and 2017’s Irma, tweeted Jeff Masters, a meteorologist and former Hurricane Hunter.

The Keys saw three to five feet of storm surge on the Atlantic side of the island chain late Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service in Key West. Forecasters expect a similar amount of storm surge will occur on the island chain’s Gulf coast from Key West through Big Pine Key.

READ MORE: How long will South Florida feel effects of Hurricane Ian, and when will tornadoes stop?

“Note that for several islands, this will allow the storm surge to pass over from Gulfside to oceanside,” the weather service said. “Many streets will become impassable with water into ground floor homes and businesses, especially those in lower elevation areas.”

As of the 5 p.m. update, storm watches and warning for the Keys were lifted, a sign that the worst of the winds and storm surge were over.

What about other parts of Florida? See the map below for the hurricane center’s peak storm surge prediction.

Hurricane Ian is forecast to bring life-threatening storm surge to Florida’s west coast.
Hurricane Ian is forecast to bring life-threatening storm surge to Florida’s west coast.

Miami Herald staff writer Alex Harris contributed to this report.