How much storm surge will Hurricane Idalia bring to Florida? See the risk by area

Most of Florida’s Gulf Coast is under a storm surge warning, with some parts of the coast under a storm surge watch as strengthening Hurricane Idalia nears the state.

Storm surge is rising water pushed onto land by a storm’s wind, and above or beyond the regular tide levels an area experiences, according to the National Hurricane Center. Flooding from storm surge depends on several factors, including a storm’s track, strength, speed and size.

It’s a storm’s most dangerous threat.

So, which part of the state will see the most storm surge?

READ MORE: King Tide timing raises Hurricane Idalia’s flood threat for Florida Gulf Coast

Here’s what forecasters say:

Which part of Florida will see the most storm surge?

The National Hurricane Center in its Tuesday advisory said it expects “catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere between the Wakulla/Jefferson County line and Yankeetown, Florida.”

“Life-threatening storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials,” the hurricane center said.

A storm surge warning is in effect from Englewood north to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay. A storm surge watch is in effect for Bonita Beach north to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbor. A watch also remains for the mouth of St. Mary’s River to South Santee River in South Carolina; the Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet in North Carolina; and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers in North Carolina.

What about other parts of Florida?

See the map below for the hurricane center’s peak storm surge prediction.

The hurricane center is now predicting even more storm surge for the Apalachee Bay region of Florida at up to 16 feet.
The hurricane center is now predicting even more storm surge for the Apalachee Bay region of Florida at up to 16 feet.

Florida’s Gulf Coast is vulnerable to storm surge. Idalia is pushing up to 15 feet of it

Which part of Florida will see the ‘dirty side’ of Idalia and face the worst weather?