Musical chairs, a possibly huge turnout — politics in Vanderburgh could be bananas in 2024

Thomas B. Langhorne, Evansville Courier & Press
·5 min read

EVANSVILLE — The campaign for mayor of Evansville ended less than two months ago — and more local politics is just around the corner. No, seriously, just around the corner.

Candidacy filings in Indiana begin Jan. 10 and end Feb. 9.

Vanderburgh County residents will have a presidential campaign to consider, of course, but also a potpourri of U.S. Senate, congressional, gubernatorial, statewide, local and legislative campaigns.

Some experts say the advertising dollars spent on elections and advocacy issues in America next year will amount to about $16 billion, up 31% compared to the 2020 presidential election year.

So the runup to election day on Nov. 5, 2024 could be hectic in Vanderburgh County and everywhere else.

Vanderburgh County's total voter roll skyrocketed from 115,553 in 2018 to 131,012 for the 2020 general election, a wild affair marked by a polarizing presidential contest and record numbers of in-person early votes and mail-in absentee ballots due to COVID-19 concerns. The end results brushed up against history. Total turnout in 2020 — 78,718 people, 60% of registered voters — missed being the highest in Vanderburgh County in modern times by just a few hundred votes.

But while most political observers anticipate high turnout for a 2024 presidential contest potentially featuring Republican former President Donald Trump and Democratic President Joe Biden, Vanderburgh County voters who are paying attention to local politics will witness a game of musical chairs.

  • Republican Dottie Thomas, Vanderburgh County's elected treasurer, will run instead for county clerk. Current Clerk Carla Hayden, limited by law to two four-year terms, confirmed she will not seek any office next year. The clerk is Vanderburgh County's chief elections officer.

  • Republican County Auditor Brian Gerth confirmed he will run for treasurer.

  • If Gerth is elected treasurer, the GOP will hold a caucus to select a new auditor. The county auditor position will not appear on a general election ballot until 2026.

  • County Recorder Debbie Stucki also is term-limited, so she will not seek re-election. Thomas said the GOP doesn't have candidates to replace Stucki "beyond rumors."

Democrats have candidates for many county-level positions — they think, said party chair Cheryl Schultz.

"We’re working on it," Schultz said Friday. "We started on it a couple of months ago. We’ve talked with some people who are interested and are planning to file, but until they actually do, I don’t release names because that can change."

Many of the county-level jobs on next year's ballot are full-time jobs, Schultz noted. It's not a matter of showing up at meetings and fielding phone calls.

"You’ve got to find somebody first of all who hopefully has the skill set to perform the position and then is willing to," the Democratic chair said. "It's almost a career change. Those are bigger decisions."

The two biggest Vanderburgh County election races

Two of the three seats on the Vanderburgh County Board of Commissioners, county government's executive governing body, are on next year's ballot.

  • Democrat Ben Shoulders has not made clear whether he will seek re-election, although most political observers expect him to do so. Shoulders did not return a phone message from the Courier & Press. "He hasn’t told me officially yes or no, so I’m assuming he will (run)," Democratic Party Chair Schultz said. GOP Vice Chair Thomas said Shoulders should have a Republican opponent. "I’ve heard a couple of people that want to do that," Thomas said. "It’s like hearsay. They’ve not come directly to me and said, ‘What do you think?’ Just rumors. They should be jumping out after the new year, I’m sure."

  • Republican Cheryl Musgrave says she intends to seek re-election. Democrat Hope Fussner has said she will run. No other candidates have emerged.

Who will win Vanderburgh County's 2024 elections?

Local Republicans hope for better results next year in countywide elections than they saw in 2023's Evansville city elections, when they lost their hold on the mayor's office and lost every contested City Council campaign in a top-to-bottom drubbing.

"When you expand the voting base and get out into the county, I don’t think there’s any secret that the majority of our townships and areas in the county in the past have voted Republican," said GOP Chairman Mikle Duckworth. "Now, we’re not going to take that for granted by any means. We’re going to put the best slate of candidates we can together and go out and work."

Republicans dominated countywide elections and won national, state and congressional majorities in Vanderburgh County in 2020 and 2022 — with a few exceptions.

Shoulders defeated Republican Zac Rascher by a 52-48% margin in 2020. Democrat Jonathan Weinzapfel, a former Evansville mayor running for Indiana attorney general, defeated Republican Todd Rokita in Vanderburgh County by the same margin — but Rokita won statewide.

In 2022, Democrat Noah Robinson was elected sheriff, bucking a countywide Republican tide.

It can be done, Democratic chair Schultz said.

"(Robinson and Shoulders) showed us we could win in the county," she said. "We’re hoping to take a lot of the momentum and energy that we had from our (2023) municipal election and carry that forward."

One big, possible difference

One big thing may be different about elections locally next year.

Schools have been open on election day regardless of whether they were used as polling places. But Evansville Vanderburgh School Corp. proposes to close all schools on that day.

"We know that some, about a half-dozen of our school facilities, are used as polling places and, with this many people in the community coming in and out of those voting centers, we just want to make sure we have a safe environment," EVSC spokesman Jason Woebkenberg said on a recent corporation Facebook video.

The EVSC school board will make a final decision on the proposed election day closings when it approves a new 2024-25 calendar during its Jan. 8 meeting.

This article originally appeared on Evansville Courier & Press: Musical chairs, a possibly huge turnout — politics in Vanderburgh could be bananas in 2024