A must-win in November? Heat faces important In-Season Tournament game vs. Bucks on Tuesday

Welcome to the NBA’s inaugural In-Season Tournament that was established to help raise the stakes of early-season games.

It’s working, as the Miami Heat faces what’s essentially a must-win game just one month into the regular season to stay alive in the In-Season Tournament.

With the tournament’s four-game group stage coming to an end, the Heat needs to win its final game of group play on Tuesday against the Milwaukee Bucks at Kaseya Center (7:30 p.m., TNT) to have a realistic chance of advancing to the knockout quarterfinal round.

A loss to the Bucks on Tuesday wouldn’t technically eliminate the Heat from the In-Season Tournament, but there’s only one unlikely scenario that would get Miami to the quarterfinals if it does not defeat Milwaukee.

“We wanted to be open to it,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said of the new tournament, with the Heat returning home for Tuesday’s important contest after playing nine of the last 10 games on the road. “I think we thought early on that this was good for the league and you don’t know what to expect until you’re actually in it. ... It’s definitely peaking everybody’s interest.”

Here’s where things stand and what to know entering the final day of group play Tuesday:

The winner of each of the six five-team groups and two wild cards (the team from each conference with the best record in group play that finished second in its group) will advance to the quarterfinals of the tourney.

The Heat was randomly drawn into a five-team group that also includes the Bucks, New York Knicks, Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards for the In-Season Tournament.

The current standings: 1. Bucks (3-0), 2. Knicks (2-1), 3. Heat (2-1), 4. Charlotte Hornets (1-2), 5. Washington Wizards (0-4).

The Wizards are the only team in the group that has already been eliminated from the race to make the quarterfinals and the Hornets are a long shot to advance. The Heat’s only loss through the first three group games came against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Friday, which is why Miami is behind New York in the group standings despite holding the same record.

For the Heat to qualify for the quarterfinals as either the group winner or the Eastern Conference wildcard, it very likely needs to defeat Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and the Bucks on Tuesday. But that alone isn’t enough to get Miami past the group stage.

In order for the Heat to get to the quarterfinals as the group winner, according to the NBA’s list of scenarios, one of the following must happen on Tuesday:

▪ A home win over the Bucks and a Knicks home loss to the Hornets

▪ If the Knicks defeat the Hornets, a home win over the Bucks and the Heat also needs to win the three-way tiebreaker over the Bucks and Knicks

In order for the Heat to reach the quarterfinals as the East wildcard, one of the following must occur on Tuesday:

▪ A home win over the Bucks, a Cleveland Cavaliers home loss to the Atlanta Hawks, a Boston Celtics home loss to the Chicago Bulls, a Brooklyn Nets home loss to the Toronto Raptors and the Heat must also finish second in its group through a tiebreaker

▪ A home win over the Bucks and the Heat must also finish second in its group and win the tiebreaker over any other second-place East team from another group with a 3-1 record

▪ The only way the Heat can advance to the quarterfinals after losing to the Bucks on Tuesday is with a Cavaliers home loss to the Hawks, a Knicks home loss to the Hornets, a Celtics home loss to the Bulls, a Nets home loss to the Raptors and the Heat must also finish second in its group and win the tiebreaker over any second-place East team from another group

But the fact is the cleanest way for the Heat to advance to the quarterfinals is as the group winner by defeating the Bucks and also having the Knicks lose to the Hornets on Tuesday.

Why?

Because that would leave the Heat and Bucks as the only two teams in the group with a 3-1 record, and the Heat would win that two-team tie based on head-to-head record in group play after defeating the Bucks on Tuesday in this scenario.

Winning the tiebreaker in other scenarios could be problematic for the Heat because it would likely come down to point differential in group play.

If two or more teams are tied within a group, the tie among the teams will be broken according to the following tiebreakers (in sequential order): head-to-head record in group play, point differential in group play, total points scored in group play, regular-season record from last regular season and random drawing.

If two or more teams are tied for the wild card in a conference, the tie among the teams will be broken following the same tiebreaker protocol, with the exception of the head-to-head record in group play. Ties within groups will be broken before the calculation of wild card tiebreakers.

The Heat enters the final day of the group stage with a point differential of plus-11, which ranks third-best in its group behind the first-place Bucks (plus-39) and second-place Knicks (plus-18).

In addition to a spot in the quarterfinals, money will also be on the line for the Heat on Tuesday. That’s because advancing to the quarterfinals would mean at least $50,000 for each player on Miami’s roster.

Players on the In-Season Tournament’s championship team will get $500,000 each, players on the team that loses in the championship will get $200,000 each, players on the teams that lose in the semifinals will get $100,000 each and players on the teams that lose in the quarterfinals will get $50,000 each. The champion will also get the new NBA Cup.

The knockout rounds will consist of single-elimination games for the eight teams that advance from group play, starting with the quarterfinals on Dec. 4-5 played in NBA markets. The four teams that win quarterfinal games advance to the neutral-site semifinals on Dec. 7 and then two teams will play in the championship game on Dec. 9.

The semifinals and championship game of the event will be played at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

The 22 teams not advancing to the quarterfinals will play two regular-season games on Dec. 6 and 8 against opponents still to be determined to fill the missing two games in its standard 82-game schedule. The two missing games for those 22 teams will be announced this week following the conclusion of group play.

The four teams that lose in the quarterfinals will play a regular-season game against an opponent still to be determined on Dec. 8 to complete its 82-game schedule.

Every game in the NBA’s In-Season Tournament will count toward regular-season stats and standings, except the championship game in Las Vegas on Dec. 9. The two teams that advance to the championship game will play 83 games during the regular season, which is why the In-Season Tournament final does not count toward the regular season.

“I think it’s good for the league, I think it’s good for the players, teams, staff,” Spoelstra said. “This thing [the tournament championship] is coming up in two weeks. We’re going to be playing a couple games anyway. It would be a whole lot more fun to go to Vegas and play these games and try to win an early chip or title or cup or whatever you want to call it. Anything that sparks competition, I think is good for the league.”