Myanmar’s ragtag rebels fire dynamite from catapults – and they’re winning
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A band of young Myanmar resistance fighters hide in a muddy ditch and hook up a stick of dynamite to a slingshot. “Hide, hide. Ignite it. Provide wind protection. Son of a bitch, it’s exploded,” they shout in nervous excitement as it launches.
For the disparate and often ragtag forces, the lack of outside help for their cause has necessitated some creative thinking and jimmied-together weapons.
But in many clashes they are leaving the regime forces outmanned, outflanked and outgunned.
The rapid disintegration of the junta’s grip on the strife-torn country since a coordinated mass counter-offensive began in October is laid bare by an audio recording of a young officer’s final moments in his besieged base in Rezua, Matupi Township.
The desperation in 2nd Lieut Ye Myint Zaw’s voice rises as he pleads with a junta commander in central Myanmar to urgently send air power and save his isolated outpost from a fierce assault by resistance fighters.
“They’re already in our base and they’re going to shoot us. Send reinforcements and a fighter jet quickly, Aba,” he says, using the word for father to address his superior, Lt Gen Ko Ko Oo.
Bursts of gunfire become louder throughout their half-hour call as rebels from the Chinland Defence Force and Chin National Front draw closer to conquering the base, in western Chin State, even as Lt Gen Ko Ko Oo repeatedly promises that a helicopter gunship is on its way.
But after 37 torturous minutes, 2nd Lieut Ye Myint Zaw lets out an agonised dying moan. Then there is a triumphal shout over his radio. “Your base is now under our control. Your lieutenant is dead.”
Another video shows a rebel gunner firing a burst of ammunition at military fighter jets that have rained down so much misery and terror on civilians.
A direct hit would be a long shot and the jets seems untroubled, but he lets out a defiant whoop and sticks up his middle finger at the sky. Morale is high.
Myanmar’s tipping point
Operation 1027, which started in northern Shan State with an insurgent coalition called the Three Brotherhood Alliance, has now snowballed across the country.
Overstretched by multiple battlefronts and unprecedented cooperation between armed ethnic resistance groups, Myanmar’s military, which launched a coup in 2021 and violently suppressed dissent, is now running out of cash, resources and manpower – leaving it vulnerable even to ragtag rebels armed with slingshots and dynamite.
While analysts do not predict the regime’s imminent demise, many say Myanmar has hit a pivotal moment that could be a pathway to restoring democracy after power was snatched from elected rulers by junta leader General Min Aung Hlaing.
“We have reached a tipping point in the history of the country. The military never felt threatened like this before. They never thought they will be defeated,” said Dr Sasa, the international co-operation minister in the National Unity Government (NUG) – a shadow government, many of whose members are in exile.
The operation, which has now overrun more than 250 military bases and captured strategic border crossings with China and India, had been planned for more than 12 months, he told The Telegraph.
Hungry and deprived of basic necessities, government soldiers were starting to question their masters, Dr Sasa added. By NUG calculations, which are difficult to independently verify, some 15,000 to 16,000 personnel have defected from the military since the coup – a phenomenon that has intensified since October.
Defectors welcomed with open arms
Sergeant Htin Aung, 39, laid down his arms with the survivors of the junta army’s Light Infantry Brigade 143, in Kunlong Township, Shan State, on Oct 28.
It was only a day after Operation 1027 began but their base in the village of Kan Mong – isolated, like many of the military’s outposts – had been quickly overwhelmed by the insurgent Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA).
“By the morning of Oct 28, we faced significant casualties among our ranks. Despite our pleas for reinforcements due to numerous injured soldiers, support didn’t arrive until evening,” said the sergeant.
“It became evident that the opposing forces possessed superior technology and manpower. While we had weaponry, our numbers were insufficient. Continuing the fight would have meant certain death.”
Htin Aung, from Maubin Township, had reluctantly joined the military because of financial destitution eight years earlier, when he was offered 700,000 Burmese kyat (£263) by the village chief.
“My mother was very ill and I desperately needed money for her treatment, so I joined despite feeling unhappy about it due to bullying and inhumane treatment there,” he said.
His eventual surrender under heavy fire was spurred by the thought of his 13-year-old daughter. “I want to live to see her grow up,” he said.
His relief that the MNDAA spared his life turned to surprise when they offered travel expenses and help with relocation.
The narrative that defectors will be well treated is one that the NUG and insurgent groups are keen to promote through their social media channels.
In one choreographed video circulated by the NUG, U Maung Maung Swe, the shadow deputy defence minister, pledges to protect prisoners under the Geneva Convention and appeals to soldiers to save themselves and abandon the army.
The footage includes statements from soldiers who abandoned the Chaung Hnakhwa outpost in south-west Mon State.
Standing in a jungle clearing, the men are wearing clean civilian clothes and do not appear to be injured or under duress as they speak about their capture.
Sergeant Thein Zaw describes how soldiers became increasingly depressed, hungry and thirsty as they fought for three days without back-up. “We fell in battle one after another,” he said.
When they finally gave up, he claimed that the People’s Defence Force (PDF) attacking the base thanked and welcomed them.
Sergeant Moe Kyaw Aung said that 25 out of 53 soldiers died and 18 were injured when they were surrounded by the PDF. He was hiding in bushes when he heard them offer the chance to surrender – he ripped out a page from a book he was carrying and waved it as a makeshift white flag.
After having their weapons seized, the injured were assisted to vehicles, he said.
Why the rebel tactics are suceeding
Lucas Myers, a senior associate for south-east Asia at the US-based Wilson Center, said that low morale in the military and serious battlefield attrition was a major reason for Operation 1027’s success so far.
“They have not been able to replace their lost manpower, their financial situation is reportedly quite dire,” he said. “I do think that this has shifted the balance towards the resistance now. The resistance appears to have momentum … to be able to take the strategic initiative.”
Social media is awash with snippets from the battlefield that appear to suggest a new equilibrium – insurgents overrunning military bases and celebrating with beers.
Many hope that it’s a long-awaited breakthrough almost three years after the military seized power from a democratically elected government, jailed its leader Aung San Suu Kyi and stunned the nation with a ruthless crackdown that saw protesters mowed down in city streets.
Before the coup, Maui Phoe Thaike, 30, loved agriculture and wanted to be an organic farmer in eastern Karenni State. He is now the deputy commander of the Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF).
“Because of Min Aung Hlaing, I had to switch from holding a hoe to holding a gun,” he said.
“The reason why I decided to carry a gun is because I know that as long as there is injustice, I will not be able to do what I want in peace.”
He longed to return to his former peaceful life and family, but first had to play his part in overthrowing the military dictatorship to liberate the country, he explained: “I chose the armed path because I don’t want to feel guilty about my history and future.”
With no military training, forming his own battalion had been mentally and physically tough. He compared taking on the powerful, well-armed military to “pulling a tiger by the tail” but described a band of brothers who helped each other survive.
“When comrades who fought together fall, and when they step on a landmine, the heartbreak is indescribable. But we can overcome it by supporting each other,” he said.
“If you ask about missing home, there is no longer a home to miss. The Myanmar military burned it down.
“There were times when I remembered my home and family, and I was filled with hatred and resentment towards the Myanmar military. But these houses are only material. We have to get our land back so we can rebuild the house.”
Analysts say that the waves of consolidated resistance throughout Myanmar have shattered the deep-rooted belief that the junta is the only force capable of holding together the divided country.
Last week, growing pressure on the military appeared to push it towards nascent peace talks in the north, which has seen some of the fiercest fighting.
On Thursday, the Chinese foreign ministry said that it had facilitated dialogue in China between the military and the brotherhood alliance of the MNDAA, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army that had led to an agreement on a temporary ceasefire.
However, insurgent groups this week have stressed their goal to end the dictatorship has not altered. “Calling the next generation to defend captured territories. Who among them would be the first to join,” the MNDAA said after China’s revelation.
Li Kyar Win, the MNDAA’s spokesman, told The Telegraph that it was “evident that the military’s internal cohesion is deteriorating”.
He added: “We are dedicated to eradicating the oppressive military dictatorship, a shared inspiration of the entire Myanmar populace.”
‘We need help – and the world needs us’
Dr Sasa has urged the international community to better support the “fight for freedom” in a country at a critical juncture between China and India. Russia, North Korea and Iran were already militarily assisting the junta, he warned.
Democracy and a healthy economy in Myanmar were “in the interest of the free and democratic world strategically”, he said. “Not only do we need the [international community], they need us.”
He also appealed for help from Britain and the United States to rebuild.
On Tuesday, the World Bank said that Myanmar’s economy was forecast to grow only 1 per cent this year, which will leave it 10 per cent smaller in 2024 than it was five years ago.
Some 500,000 people have fled their homes since fighting escalated in October, bringing the total displaced to 2.5 million.
Dave Eubank, the leader of the Free Burma Rangers (FBR) – a humanitarian relief organisation that operates mainly in eastern Karenni and Karen states on the Thai border – said that the military was “killing civilians at a higher rate [than] in more than 30 years”.
The FBR conservatively estimates that 700 died in November – many killed by heavy mortars and air strikes using new, possibly Russian, precision munitions.
The displaced are desperate for food, medicine and shelter. Children use chalk on rocks at makeshift schools.
“Anything they see, they are going to bomb,” Mr Eubank said of the military, describing how a children’s camp organised by the FBR was attacked.
“Everyone was hiding, we were holding onto kids trying to keep them quiet, [saying]: ‘Don’t move so they don’t see you through the trees,’” he said. One of the bombs killed four of the children’s fathers.
But despite immense suffering, public support remained strong for the resistance movement and the army was losing territory, said Mr Eubank.
“I don’t think Burma can stay the same. Whether it is a negotiated settlement with a new crop of army officers or Naypyidaw collapses. We’re looking at a new Burma already forming,” he said.
“I don’t know how long it’s going to take but I’m optimistic that in the middle of all this pain and tragedy, positive change will come.”
