N.Y. redistricting could shift odds of Rep. Jamaal Bowman’s Democratic primary with George Latimer

NEW YORK — The looming New York congressional redistricting effort could shift the odds of Rep. Jamaal Bowman fending off a Democratic primary challenge from Westchester County Executive George Latimer as Democrats seek to flip several Republican-held seats in 2024.

Bowman’s NY-16 district is sure to remain deep blue after the state’s 26 congressional districts are rejiggered before the 2024 elections as the state’s highest court recently ordered.

But the outspoken progressive’s district, which is now almost entirely comprised of southern Westchester County, could be reshaped, creating ripples that either help — or dramatically hurt — the two-term lawmaker.

That’s because Democratic strategists hope to use the redistricting effort to help flip two nearby Republican-held swing districts and to bolster one Democratic-held one.

One way might be to stretch NY-16 far up into suburban northern Westchester, Putnam and even Dutchess counties.

Such a new district could include some Republican areas that would make the neighboring NY-17 district, now held by Rep. Mike Lawler, much more Democratic. It could also boost incumbent Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan and potentially even hurt Republican Rep. Marc Moliaro, whose Catskills district is a perennial swing seat.

“If you can take a plus 30 Democratic district and keep it solidly Democratic while reelecting one Democrat and making it nearly impossible for Lawler, why wouldn’t you do that?” asked one Democratic insider, who asked to remain anonymous to discusss the strategy.

But stretching NY-16 north would also make it dramatically less politically hospitable for Bowman, a former Bronx middle school principal who originally won the seat when it included a big chunk of the Bronx. It now includes lower Westchester cities of Mt. Vernon, New Rochelle and his home town of Yonkers. Bowman, who is Black, defeated longtime predecessor Eliot Engel for the seat.

“If Democrats want to win back the House we should be putting more of our resources into defeating Republicans, not taking on fellow Democrats like [what] George Latimer is doing,” said Bill Neidhardt, a spokesman for Bowman.

If map-makers do add far northern suburbs in the district, it would include far fewer people of color than the current district, which was drawn by a special master after conservative justices rejected a Democratic-drawn state map as an unconstitutional gerrymander.

A reshaped district might also be more receptive to Latimer’s attacks on Bowman over the incumbent congressman’s harsh criticism of Israel.

Bowman is demanding that Israel end the fighting and launch negotiations with the Palestinians for a two-state solution.

Latimer launched his primary challenge by framing himself as a strong supporter of Israel’s war in Gaza and journeyed to the Jewish state on a solidarity trip after Thanksgiving.

He has longtime strong support in Westchester’s large Jewish community and has raked in support from pro-Israel groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and Democratic Majority for Israel.

Bowman would likely prefer to keep his district more or less the same.

He and his progressive allies, including the powerful left-leaning Working Families Party, even want it to include a bigger slice of the Bronx, like it did before 2022.

Jasmine Gripper, co-director of the New York Working Families Party, called that strategy the best way to give a stronger voice to Black voters in the Bronx and Westchester.

She pleaded for unity as the best way for Democrats to flip at least five GOP seats in New York, including those held by Lawler and Molinaro.

“We can draw fair maps that will help Democrats win back these seats and move forward with democracy at the same time,” Gripper said.

Basil Smikle, a Democratic strategist and Hunter College professor, said there might be a conflict between two worthy goals for Democrats: maintaining a person of color as the representative of the district and retaking the House.

“The voters in those communities may be asked to make a sacrifice for the greater good,” Smikle said.

The New York State Court of Appeals set off the wave of the redistricting political parlor games when it ruled that the state must redraw its congressional districts before the primary and general elections next year.

The bipartisan Independent Redistricting Commission will seek to come up with a map that both parties can accept. One of the three Democratic members of the commission, Kenneth Jenkins, is an appointee of Latimer, prompting some calls for him to step aside.

If the commission cannot agree, the Democratic-dominated state legislature will draw the map.

Republicans would probably challenge any aggressive map drawn by the Democratic legislature in court, especially since the New York seats could wind up determining control of the entire House of Representatives. But the state’s top court now tilts towards liberal justices who might back Democrats this time.