Nagy: How a coup in Niger matters to folks in West Texas

Another day another coup in West Africa - this time in Niger, a country few Americans have ever heard of. On July 26, General Tchiani, head of the Presidential Guard, deposed and arrested his boss, President Bazoum, and after a few days of drama declared himself the new head of state. Does it matter a whit for folks in Lubbock?

We’ve all heard Benjamin Franklin’s saying: “For want of a nail, the shoe was lost. For want of a shoe, the horse was lost. For want of a horse, the rider was lost. For want of a rider, the battle was lost.” The proverb’s cascading losses leading to ever greater harm is very much at play with Niger’s coup, and the US – along with the international community – should beware.

Niger, a country about twice the size of Texas, is a landlocked nation of 27 million plus people in Africa’s Sahel zone – a region of ten countries between the Sahara Desert and the wetter savanna stretching from the Atlantic to the Red Sea. The region is about the size of Australia, with over 135 million people who are among the world’s poorest (living on less than $2 per day). In Niger, the poverty rate is 43% and the nation’s birth rate is also highest in the world with women averaging 8 children. While the people are poor, the nations are rich – with a variety of mineral resources ideally suited for the 21st century economy. For example, Niger has Africa’s highest-grade uranium and produces about 5% of global output.

In recent years the Sahel has become ground zero for global terrorism with 43% of all terrorism- related deaths in the world in 2022. This is more than the combined total from South Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. So why the Sahel? The reasons are many and complex and would require a book-long analysis. The short version: terrorism is thriving in the Sahel because of the region’s history with French colonialism, autocratic and corrupt governments which don’t provide services, low levels of education – especially for women, and the peoples’ lack of economic opportunities and basic freedoms. Niger itself is threatened by at least five terror groups – some allied with ISIS, some with al-Qaeda, and some unaffiliated. The rapid growth of terrorism has also been aided by Sahelian governments’ instability -- with six coups in the region since 2020.

Trying to stem the tide of extremism have been the nations themselves, with significant help from ex-colonial power France and United Nations Peacekeepers (in Mali) and limited support from a handful of European nations. The US has also been a major supporter of counter-terrorism efforts and currently has about 1,000 military personnel in Niger along with two bases, one of which conducts drone missions throughout the region. (Some may recall the deaths of four US soldiers in Niger in 2017.) But it’s been a losing effort, and extremist influence, presence and violence is spreading through the region like a virus, because terrorism cannot be defeated by military means alone. If you eliminate one set of bad guys but leave a vacuum without filling it with effective government, another set of bad guys will arise, worse than the previous. This has led to popular frustration – taken out on local governments and the French because of their colonial baggage – and led to the coups. And after the coups, two of the

countries – Mali and Burkina Faso - have kicked out the French forces and turned to Wagner, Russia’s brutal mercenaries, to try and defeat the terrorists.

Niger was the last country in the region standing with a democratically elected government, and it had recently undergone the first civilian to civilian presidential transfer in its history. The nation was also better governed than other Sahelian nations and was starting to make some headway against the extremists. While the reasons why General Tchiani launched the coup remain uncertain – with some claiming it was a personal grudge because he was set to lose his job, while others say it was a wider discontent within the military – the ramifications for the region and the global order are dire.

I hope I’m wrong, but the coup could well succeed – as have the others. These events have almost become like Kabuki theater: a president is overthrown and arrested; a group of uniformed military appear on national TV calling themselves the Committee to Save the Nation (or some such); the regional body ECOWAS (the Economic Community of West African States) issues an ultimatum to return to “constitutional order” or face military action; the African Union, the UN, the US, the EU, etc., all condemn the coup; the new military government charges the former president with corruption or treason but eventually finds a way to exile him; and the international community changes its focus to negotiate a “democratic transition schedule” and learns to live with the new regime. While ECOWAS claims that this time its response will be more robust, I wouldn’t bet the ranch.

America is especially caught in a dilemma when such coups occur. Simply officially calling it a “coup” invokes US laws which require us to eliminate or reduce our development and security assistance. We may also sanction the coup leaders. Other Western countries usually do the same. This, of course, gives a boost to the terrorists and invites the new regime to turn to Russia for military help, or to China for economic deals. And if Wagner mercenaries come into Niger as they have into Mali, they will only be effective in terrorizing innocent Nigeriens and increase the extremists’ appeal. In addition, they will likely get their hands on Niger’s uranium – which can then end up in North Korea or Iran’s bomb making; a scenario which would threaten US national security. Another really bad result would be the expanding terrorist threat to countries along Africa’s Atlantic coast – e.g., Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, etc. – where the US has significant interests. And of course, the increased violence and instability would launch new massive waves of refugees and migrants towards neighboring countries and Europe.

So yes, the coup in Niger matters to all of us. And this time we need to end the theater and apply maximum pressure – to include providing material support to an ECOWAS military operation if needed – to eject the generals and return the government to the democratically elected President. That is clearly in America’s interest.

Ambassador Tibor Nagy was most recently Assistant Secretary of State for Africa after serving as Texas Tech’s Vice Provost for International Affairs and a 30-year career as a US Diplomat. Follow him on Twitter @TiborPNagyJr

This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Tibor Nagy, How a coup in Niger matters to folks in West Texas