Nagy: Will global democracy make a comeback in 2023?

Democracy had already been taking a battering around the world when COVID-19 stepped into the ring to add its own blows. According to Freedom House – which does an annual state of global democracy report – 2022 was the 16th year of decline, with 2020 showing the largest number of countries (75) where democracy worsened, and 2021 with the fewest (25) where it improved.

Indeed, dictators and autocrats everywhere were taking advantage of COVID to intensify their authoritarian practices. Then Biden’s shameful retreat from Afghanistan in 2021 brought to power one of the most despicably tyrannical regimes in history, and Putin’s naked aggression against Ukraine’s struggling democracy this February appeared to deal another body blow. To continue democracy’s pummeling, China’s Communist Party gave leader Xi Jinping an unprecedented third term in October – meaning he can be dictator for life and continue encumbering the Chinese people with ever greater controls on their lives.

The dismal result of all this is that currently only 20% of the world is rated “free” – vs 46% in 2005 – while 38% is “not free.” And the largest number of countries (42%) teeter between the two poles; neither totally free nor enslaved. What a letdown from the heady days following the downfall of the Soviet Union when democracy was supposed to triumph globally ushering in a new utopian world order signifying “the end of history.”

Of course, to discuss “democracy” we need to define it – not a simple task given varying expert views and countless works on the subject. But one of the most articulate definitions comes from “Bridge Man,” the courageous Chinese citizen – now being compared to the world famous “Tank Man” of Tiananmen Square - who risked all by hanging a sheet over a bridge in Beijing on the eve of Xi’s coronation. His simple message says it all: “We want reform, not cultural revolution. We want freedom, not lockdowns. We want dignity, not lies. We are citizens, not slaves.” While the authorities quickly took down the banner, and China’s legions of censors still aggressively delete any mention on social media, his message is resonating among ordinary Chinese – who have had enough. This simple, yet death defying, act exemplifies what dictators everywhere dread – that despite spending immense resources and technology to control the actions, speech and thought of citizens, the spark for freedom and liberty survives in the human soul and at some point bursts forth to challenge the despot.

This year has shown some other dramatic examples of the embers of democracy finally getting some oxygen to burn brighter. Putin’s attempts to snuff out Ukraine’s fledgling democracy certainly didn’t go as planned. Not only did the Russians not march into Kyiv in triumph, but they’ve been defeated on front after front in Ukraine, discredited around the world, sanctioned economically, and Putin has managed to unite the West like it hasn’t been in decades. Perhaps of equal significance, the shine is off Czar Putin among the Russian people, and he loses more support each day. We’ll see if anything dramatic happens in 2023, but Putin losing power is no longer unrealistic. And in recognition of Ukraine’s courage, Time Magazine named President Zelensky and the “Spirit of Ukraine” its “Person of the Year.”

The Ayatollahs’ clerical dictatorship in Iran is another example how extreme brutality does not guarantee a regime’s stability. Simply stated, Iran’s young people – who have no memory of the Shah’s despotism – are fed up with the clerics’ corruption, hypocrisy, religiosity, and unreasonable rules. They are educated and plugged in to how young people elsewhere live. The case of one young woman, murdered by the religious police for not wearing her headscarf correctly, was enough to set the nation ablaze. And despite the most brutal response, the embers are spreading, not dying.

China, Russia, and Iran all illustrate the “dictators’ dilemma” – in the face of popular unrest does a dictator respond with the stick or the carrot? Too much stick threatens greater discontent, while the carrot may indicate weakness to the populace and fuel greater demands. Chinese leader Xi is apparently selecting the carrot without saying so, in response to recent popular discontent, by reducing COVID restrictions. But this may result in massive infections and resultant deaths, risking even greater popular outrage. It appears the Ayatollahs may also be offering carrots – there is talk of abolishing the hated Religious Police, and a former Iranian President has even told students their “protests will be heard.” But Iranian youth say they will continue with resistance as their demands have now escalated to downing the sclerotic regime. Putin, meanwhile, appears to favor the stick, by further clamping down on dissent and ramping up military conscriptions. But he faces not only Russians’ growing unhappiness over what the war has wrought, but also hardcore nationalists who favor even greater tyranny and more aggressive warfare.

So, how should the US encourage these embers to glow even brighter? While it’s tempting to loudly endorse and embrace the resistors to these autocrats, an American stamp on these movements would hurt, not help. Each of these nations has a deep vein of nationalism, which the dictators would tap into by blaming the US for flaming discontent as a way to defeat their nation. Instead, we should consistently call for universal respect of people to peacefully demonstrate and petition their governments, but go no further. Democracy is an incredible force on its own, and there is a sense that its spark has again been lit in the world, and the fires will burn brighter into 2023.

Ambassador Tibor Nagy was most recently Assistant Secretary of State for Africa after serving as Texas Tech’s Vice Provost for International Affairs and a 30-year career as a US Diplomat. Follow him on Twitter @TiborPNagyJr

This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Nagy: Will global democracy make a comeback in 2023?