Nagy: The harsh world of 2022 as seen from Central Europe
Each year my wife Jane and I go back to Hungary to see the family I left behind as a refugee and to get an appreciation of how different the world looks when seen from Budapest as opposed to Washington, D.C. (or Lubbock).
The change from 2021 to 2022 has been the most dramatic since the Iron Curtain came down in 1989, and this time it’s not for the better. Russia’s invasion of next-door Ukraine has had a monumental impact on all facets of Hungarian life, as it has on other Central European states. While Americans may feel like the Ukraine war has made our lives more difficult, our hardships have been miniscule compared to what Central Europeans are facing.
(Much like the difference between how the chicken and pig are affected by being included in bacon and eggs!)Imagine your utility bill next month increasing by a factor of four or more.
For members of my family, this means paying up to 50% of their monthly income for gas and electricity. And forrestaurants and other businesses it means turning off grills when not in use and every otherdevice which uses energy.
Meanwhile, overall inflation is running at well over 20% making many essentials simply unaffordable. Business owners told me there is no way they can pass all costs on to customers and may just have to close.
Governments are already mandating strict temperature controls for winter, and people are prepping for the worst – those who can are stockpiling wood in case there are periods when no energy is available.
Some apartment blocks are even planning for communal cooking fires if electricity fails.
But so far the hardships have not dimmed Central Europe’s determination to help Ukrainians. Each day some 5,000 to 10,000 Ukrainians – mostly women and children, as men remain to fight the Russians – arrive in Hungary, having quite an impact on a population of 9 million.
In response, Hungary and other Central European nations have established strong support systems to make the refugees as comfortable as possible while they await an end to the war so they can go home.During Trump’s presidency, the U.S. and Hungary enjoyed mutually collaborative relations.Unfortunately, the Biden administration, instead of applauding the support Hungary is giving to Ukrainians, is focused on criticizing Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban and his “illiberal” policies and accommodationist approach to Russia – to the extent that current bilateral relations can best be described as toxic. US liberals are apoplectic over Hungary’s conservative and traditionalist views, without fully understanding Central Europe’s complex history.
Unlike the U.S., Central European nations have had to fight numerous wars to maintain their national existence and save their national identities, and some – like Poland – simply disappeared from the map for long periods. And much of the region endured occupation by the Ottoman Turks for long periods, which included forced conversions to Islam – so wanting to safeguard a JudeoChristian heritage is understandable.
Thus, while a socially progressive, multi-cultural, multiethnic, non-sectarian society might make sense for the US (and not all Americans even agree with that), that does not mean that it’s the default setting for all the world. If Hungarians – and others - want to pursue another model, they should have the freedom to do so.Hungary’s cooperative relations with Russia are more problematic (and I’m not objective, having lived and suffered under Russian occupation as a child).
But here again, as with many African countries which have not supported US sanctions against Russia, nations choose their own relationships based on their own interests – not those of America. If the US really wants Hungary to cut its ties with Russia, most especially in the energy sector, then the correct and most effective approach would be to work collaboratively and offer alternatives, instead of simply shouting displeasure through a megaphone. And let’s remember, it was our ally Germany’s decades-long cozy relations with Russia and willingness to become hooked onRussian energy which is a major cause of Europe’s current energy crisis.So, Central Europe, given its proximity to the war, enters the Fall with a great deal of uncertainty and anxiety. This became observable in mid-September when temperatures plunged over 24 hours from the balmy 80s to the chilly and wet 50s, with the reality of the coming cold winter on the horizon. Everyone hopes for a quick end to the war, but also accepts that Russia cannot be allowed to win – else Putin will go for an even bigger goal in the next round.
Europeans also fear Putin’s willingness to use battlefield nuclear weapons and the potential spread of radiation but hope that his generals will not execute such orders, or that Russian nukes – given years of neglect and corruption – will simply not function. Meanwhile, for the US to support Central Europe’s will to hold as “frontline” states against Putin’sexpansionist goals, we must focus on areas of mutual interest, instead of on what we don’t like.
Ambassador Tibor Nagy was most recently Assistant Secretary of State for Africa after serving as Texas Tech’s Vice Provost for International Affairs and a 30-year career as a US Diplomat. Follow him on Twitter @TiborPNagyJr
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Nagy: The harsh world of 2022 as seen from Central Europe
