Nagy: Larger consequences of Russia winning or losing in Ukraine
One of my treats on visits back to Lubbock is the opportunity to engage with various civic groups on foreign policy topics; a few weeks back I had the honor to address the Lubbock Rotary on the “State of the World.” During the follow-on discussion, one of the questions went to the heart of our current policy of supporting Ukraine with arms and funding: i.e., whether the proposed $40 billion would detract from our own defense budget, and how long could we afford such generosity. Fair question — especially when a prominent geopolitical strategist like Henry Kissinger recently postulated that Ukraine should be prepared to cede territory to Russia to obtain peace and that the West should avoid embarrassing Russia in the interest of long-term stability.
To address the issue let’s first look at US funding for Ukraine. The $40 billion just approved by Congress brings total US support for Ukraine since the Russian invasion five months ago to about $54 billion. The additional funding will break out as: $19B for immediate military support; $39B to support US forces deployed to Europe; $16B in economic support to Ukraine and global humanitarian needs from conflict; and $2B to support NATO and US defense modernization. To put this in perspective, US Defense spending is about $800 billion per year — or about 10% of all federal spending. In contrast, spending for “international affairs” — diplomacy and development — is less than 1 percent of spending.
The $40 B is still a large chunk — but what happens if we don’t spend it? Realistically, there are two possible outcomes for Russian aggression: Russia either wins, or Russia loses. There is not an outcome with a Ukrainian “victory” with the country devastated, people killed and brutalized, infrastructure destroyed, and the economy in ruins. In case of a Russian victory, the consequences for the US (and the West) would be disastrous and produce a major geopolitical realignment: US global influence would decline dramatically; NATO would be deemed irrelevant; China would be emboldened, not just over Taiwan but also its overall global ambitions; Asian countries would recognize the mistake of backing the US and turn toward China; our traditional Middle East friends would start tilting toward China/Russia; Iran, North Korea, and other enemies would increase their hostile activities; and Russia would move on to its next targets – Moldova, the Baltics, former Soviet Central European satellites, etc.
On the other hand, a Russian defeat would have highly positive outcomes for US interests: NATO would be re-energized and strengthened; Russia would reevaluate its strategic direction and possibly jettison Putin and reengage with the West; China would become more cautious, less aggressive, and President Xi could lose power this Fall; and other global bad actors would take note and restrain their troublemaking.
In the lead-up to World War II, the international community had multiple opportunities to stop Hitler early in his scheme for world domination. In 1936 when Hitler ordered the German army into the Rhineland — which was supposed to stay demilitarized after WWI — their orders were to withdraw immediately if the French army moved in opposition; the French didn’t lift a finger. Neither did the world stop Hitler annexing Austria (1938), and even helped him dismember Czechoslovakia (1938) with the cowardly Munich Agreement. The resulting war ended up costing 40-50 million lives, incredible devastation, and the US had to spend $4 trillion to achieve victory.
We have stood by as Putin took a bite out of Georgia (2008), forcibly annexed the Crimea (2014), and some are now saying that we should allow him to have territorial concessions in Ukraine “for Europe’s long-term stability.” Poppycock! Appeasement does not work with bullies or tyrants — it didn’t stop Hitler, and won’t stop Putin; just the opposite. So “yes” — $40 Billion is a vast sum of money — but imagine how much more we’ll pay later if he wins now.
Ambassador Tibor Nagy was most recently Assistant Secretary of State for Africa after serving as Texas Tech’s Vice Provost for International Affairs and a 30-year career as a US Diplomat.
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Tibor Nagy larger consequences of Russia wining or losing in Ukraine
