Nagy: Post-Cold War world has ended -- what next?

Lost in all the bruhaha surrounding the Ukraine tragedy, Freedom House — which has been tracking the state of global democracy since 1972 — released its 2022 version of “Freedom in the World.” While Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked naked aggression is an event which has shaken civilized sensibilities, the Freedom report documents a process even more alarming in its scope: it portrays 16 years of democratic decline across the globe.

While this year about one in five people lived in a country rated as “free” — back in 2005 about one in two persons enjoyed that privilege. “Freedom House” points to two separate forces — external and internal — responsible for the backsliding. China and Russia, along with other autocratic governments, have for years systematically subverted global democracy much as the mob infiltrates and takes over communities — by bribes, cooption, strong arm tactics, and the big lie. Last year the Chinese and Russian Ambassadors to the US, portraying unbridled chutzpah, actually wrote a joint op-ed for the conservative National Journal claiming their systems were also “democratic.”

But even more destructive have been the national politicians across the globe willing to weaken and even destroy the very state institutions which brought them to power, just to maintain their privileged positions. Between Putin thumbing his nose at the rules-based world order with his “I’ll take what I want, and you can’t stop me” attitude, and the hollowing out of global democracy, we can sadly say RIP to the Post-Cold War world.

How different it was to be! We recall the halcyon days when the Iron Curtain came down as symbolized by the citizens of the two Berlins pounding down the Wall, or political scientist Fukuyama declaring the “End of History” in his famous 1992 treatise. It would be “Pax Americana,” under a benign superpower — or at least as benign as possible given human failings — to lead a world ever more peaceful and more prosperous thanks to global trade, whose citizens would benefit from ever increasing freedoms and scientific advances.

Only a few miscreants were left out, cowering in the shadows: Cuba, Venezuela, Iran and North Korea. Even when the dream was shattered by 9/11, the world stood by America — until our adventures in Afghanistan and Iraq became endless. We also tried to bring China, a rising behemoth, into the global rules-based family, believing that giving it membership in institutions such as the World Trade Organization would moderate its authoritarianism and mercantile leanings. Instead, we were shocked to learn that we let the wolf into the henhouse, and instead of the institutions changing China, China has a long-term plan to imprint global institutions with its own characters.

So now we awake — realizing that the nightmare wasn’t a dream; we are in it; now what? America does have choices. One is easy — but would end badly. We can play turtle — pull in our head, saying the world is not our problem; we are not the global 911 response. However, Fortress America would be no fortress, but a prison. While the world would not immediately become the Sino-centered globe President Xi intends to create, it would quickly devolve into a multi-polar world with major (China, Russia, the EU) and minor (Iran, Turkey, India, Brazil) powers exerting regional influence and coming into occasional conflict with each other.

Or, we can follow the path the US Administration has chosen in responding to Russia’s current aggression (maybe Biden has learned from his Afghan disaster). By using the full power, prestige and influence of the United States to mobilize and lead that part of the world which remains committed to international order, we can get back on the road to a more optimistic future.

But this will require considerable effort and — most importantly — a unity among Americans that this is our correct path. Defense and Diplomacy will have to work together, and both have been neglected. “Diplomacy without force is but prayer” is one of my favorite quotes from former Wyoming Sen. Wallop; it’s absolutely true. And some of our global corporations and tech titans may have to accept lower profits by forgoing investments in China, Russia, and other countries which are trying to subvert the globe. Right now, we have a choice — are we ready to reverse democracy’s decline and continue to have the US Dollar as the world reserve currency, or are we comfortable contemplating the nightmare world of George Orwell’s “1984?” Time to re-read the book and decide!

Ambassador Tibor Nagy was most recently Assistant Secretary of State for Africa after serving as Texas Tech’s Vice Provost for International Affairs and a 30-year career as a US Diplomat.

This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Tibor Nagy post-Cold War world has ended -- what next?