Nagy: President Xi’s Party Congress – What's next for China?

Every five years China’s Communist Party (CCP) holds a conclave with several thousand delegates to plot the country’s path forward, select top leaders and make major decisions affecting the country.

This year’s 20th Party Congress, starting Oct 16, .may be the most momentous this century for China, the US and the world. In some respects, China is more powerful than it has ever been in 4,000 years of history. It has the world’s largest population and second biggest economy, and it may overtake the US in a decade; it has become the world’s factory (just about everything is “made in China”); it now has the second most powerful military (with Russia’s Ukraine debacle); and it has spent trillions of dollars tying the world to China through its hyper-ambitious “Belt and Road Initiative,” which has poured concrete and laid railroads across the globe. For the last ten years China’s current leader, President Xi Jinping, has overseen China’s remarkable rise and has plotted an even more ambitious future – with China replacing the US as the world’s leader and the globe’s American constructed post-World War II rules-based international system with a “China-deciding what goes” model.

When Xi came to power in 2012, there was global optimism about his leadership. One of my trips to China while Vice Provost at Texas Tech – to seek partnerships with Chinese universities - came shortly after Xi’s selection and we visited Fujian province, where Xi had been governor. Our Chinese interlocutors spoke positively about his governorship, and there was already evidence of his intent to stamp out corruption across the board (which had become a serious national problem). But Xi also used his anti-corruption campaign to eliminate political enemies and begin the rise which put him at the center of China’s byzantine political structure with greater and greater powers.

Now, ten years later, the mask has finally come off, and behind the benevolently smiling Xi is a wolf with snarling fangs. It’s clear that Xi’s prime directive is to maintain the CCP’s paramount position through total control of China’s population and the insertion of the Party as a dominant force into every facet of Chinese life – economic, cultural, social, educational, informational, etc. One feature of this control-freak approach is China’s “Great Firewall” which totally censors and controls the internet. Another is implementation of “smart cities,” which scan and follow ordinary citizens about their business, and which China hopes to export around the world, with all data flowing through China. But the most egregious example has been China’s gross mistreatment of millions of Uighurs in Xinjiang province for simply following their own culture and religion.

The wolf is also out of the sheep’s clothing in China’s international relations. Gone is the phrase “one country, two systems,” regarding Hong Kong’s supposed freedoms, now crushed under Chinese jackboots. Chinese sabers have been rattling across the region – most especially against Taiwan for daring to seek a democratic path – but also threatening any nation that dares to challenge China’s outlandish claims in the South China Sea. India has also been victimized by China’s aggression along the disputed Kashmir border, with Indian troops killed by Chinese soldiers. I have also seen first-hand China’s strong-arm tactics across Africa in using its influence to cajole Africans to support China’s positions across the board.

Now Xi is expecting this Party Congress to abandon almost 50 years of tradition and name him to a third five-year term as China’s supreme leader. He is also shamelessly promoting a “cult-of-personality” which Chinese leaders abandoned after the destructive rule of Mao Zedong – China’s first communist ruler. China’s collective leadership decided after Mao to limit leaders to two five-year terms exactly to avoid the types of habits Xi is re-introducing.

But not everything has gone Xi’s way. His “zero Covid” policy has paralyzed Chinese cities, slowed the economy, and angered citizens. His taking down China’s leading entrepreneurs has stymied creative industries and eliminated huge sums from China’s stock market. And his regime’s approach to China’s real-estate market basically created a pyramid scheme which has collapsed and left hundreds of thousands with homes paid for but never built, resulting in unheard of demonstrations by angry victims. But Xi’s biggest miscalculation might have been backing Putin’s adventurism. By publicly supporting Putin on the eve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Xi made a massive strategic miscalculation, and there is no way China’s reputation will emerge unscathed immaterial of the war’s outcome.

Xi will likely get everything he wants from the 20th Party Congress – another five-year term (which may lead to others), honorifics not lauded on Chinese leaders since Mao, his handpicked choices for new senior party positions, and an official “vision” for China in line with his own goals. But while this Congress appears to be coming at the very apex of Chinese power, the road from here may quickly take a downhill turn.

Ambassador Tibor Nagy was most recently Assistant Secretary of State for Africa after serving as Texas Tech’s Vice Provost for International Affairs and a 30-year career as a US Diplomat. Follow him on Twitter @TiborPNagyJr

This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Nagy: President Xi’s Party Congress – What's next for China?