Nagy: When U.S. Embassies have to evacuate, being prepared for 'worst-case' scenarios
As our nation waited with bated breath last week to learn whether the evacuation of our diplomats from embattled Khartoum, Sudan would succeed, I thought back to a similar event in 1997 when, as US Ambassador to Guinea, our embassy was instrumental in evacuating Americans from next-door Sierra Leone. Such happenings are thankfully rare but occur often enough so that our 256 diplomatic establishments around the world must be prepared for potential “worst-case” scenarios.
Each US Mission (embassy or consulate) maintains an Emergency Action Plan (EAP), updated frequently, which includes A-Z details on who does what and how, when certain things happen. It also includes contingencies for potentially dangerous scenarios, based on local conditions, whether political (election violence, anarchy, coup, war), accidental (plane crash, blackout), or natural (volcanic eruption, tidal wave, cyclone). The EAP also outlines responsibilities and coordination between the Mission, the US Department of State in Washington, and Department of Defense elements which might be needed to support an evacuation. Missions also have an Emergency Action Committee (EAC) – usually chaired by the Deputy to the Ambassador – which convenes whenever events arise that require emergency planning and responses. The EAC advises the Ambassador on what steps to take, when.
Most instances of politically induced violence are like a heating pot of water, with advance warnings for each temperature rise – so missions can monitor the worsening situation and react to each stage. This involves warnings to US citizens through the Department of State website to avoid travel there, advising Americans in-country to leave while commercial travel is possible, and drawing down embassy staffing to essential personnel. This is also true for certain natural cataclysms like volcanoes or approaching storms.
But events like the Sudan conflict are exceptions. While the US has been concerned with Sudan’s stability since 2019 when the military ejected a long-term dictator and established a haphazard “transitional government” first with civilians, then without – the outbreak of conflict on April 15 between two military factions came without warning. However, the US Mission was not unprepared - due to the ongoing unstable political and economic environment, our Khartoum Embassy was already at minimal staffing, document holdings were no doubt kept to a minimum, and our diplomats were there mostly without family, ready to draw down further or evacuate. And for quite a long time the US State Department Sudan travel advisory for American citizens was “do not go there.”
When fighting erupts suddenly, like it did across Sudan, Embassies establish open lines with Washington to keep the US government informed of unfolding events and advise on courses of action, take an accounting of the welfare and whereabouts of Embassy staff, activate the in-country “warden” network of US citizens who are the point persons for communicating with Americans throughout the country. The first information Washington always wants to know is the status of American citizens in a country – since their safety is every Ambassador’s first priority.
If a crisis is short term – a few days – then “sheltering in place” is usually the best option. But if the situation deteriorates – with intensifying combat, a breakdown of law and order, targeted violence against foreigners, unavailability of water, food, electricity, or other essentials – then there will be immediate planning for a NEO (noncombatant evacuation operation) by the US military.
As with each crisis, each NEO will be different and there will be multiple factors, many quickly changing. Issue One is whether the environment is “permissive” (cooperation from combatants) or “non permissive.” Other considerations include: is the airport operational; will it require navy support; should it be over land; where can people gather to be evacuated; etc.? And what is the status with neighboring countries – will they assist US efforts as Djibouti and Ethiopia did in this case – or are they hostile to the US? In the Sudan case, there were two “organized” military forces fighting each other, and even though both agreed not to open fire on US forces conducting the evacuation, command/control was uncertain, so there was a high degree of risk. Thanks to God it went well, without casualties or hostile fire.
But in such situations, left behind are the local Embassy staff who have provided long and loyal service to the US Government, and who now face the dangerous environment. While the US “suspends” operation of the Embassy, the local staff will be the ones to keep the lights on (if possible). Unfortunately, in some circumstances they may be specifically targeted for having worked for Americans.
Also left behind in Sudan are many American citizens – in the country despite the official Travel Advisory. Of the estimated 16,000, most are likely dual national Sudanese-Americans, who are either permanent residents or there for family reasons. A much smaller number of non-Sudanese Americans are there to pursue professional or personal interests. Given the size of Sudan (about Alaska and Georgia combined) and the situation on the ground, so far it has been impossible to launch a rescue effort for all Americans in the country who might wish to leave. But Washington is keeping track of all US citizens asking for evacuation, and I am certain there is ongoing planning for possible further operations, including the potential to use US naval vessels to evacuate Americans who can reach Port Sudan. This case still has not ended and acute dangers remain.
For me, the Sudan evacuation reinforces a belief built up over my long diplomatic career, that if traveling overseas I would much rather be an American citizen than a citizen of any other country – because we are better prepared to help our citizens in danger than anyone else. The most important lesson to remember is before traveling abroad, read the State department information on where you are traveling, and if there is a warning to not go there, please don’t.
Ambassador Tibor Nagy was most recently Assistant Secretary of State for Africa after serving as Texas Tech’s Vice Provost for International Affairs and a 30-year career as a US Diplomat. Follow him on Twitter @TiborPNagyJr
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Nagy: When U.S. Embassies have to evacuate
