How we can nail zero emissions by 2050: TVA-funded report says it's possible

There are four roads the Tennessee Valley region could take to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, but it would take effort from industries, communities and scientists, not just the Tennessee Valley Authority, to do so.

That's according to the Valley Pathways Study, funded by the Tennessee Valley Authority and produced by the Baker School of Public Policy and Public Affairs at the University of Tennessee at Knoxville. It tracks carbon emissions in each sector of the economy, including TVA's coal and natural gas plants.

The Tennessee Valley — a region of 10 million people across Tennessee and portions of six other states that buy electricity from TVA — emitted 200 million tons of greenhouse gases in 2019, the study's baseline year.

Transportation was the single greatest source of emissions at 36%, followed by TVA's power system at 27% and agriculture and waste management at 16%, according to the study.

Between 2005 and 2019, carbon emissions in the region fell by 78 million tons, or 30%. In addition to TVA's cleaner grid, the agriculture sector saw a 39% emissions reduction after adopting no-till farming, which keeps greenhouse gases from escaping soil.

TVA, the nation's largest public power provider, wants its own power system to be net-zero by 2050. It already generates over half of its electricity from carbon-free sources like nuclear and hydroelectric dams and has slashed its emissions in half since 2005, thanks in large part to closing coal plants.

Even if TVA achieves its net-zero goal, the Tennessee Valley economy will still emit 150 million tons of carbon each year, the study said.

"If you're an industrial customer and you want to prove to your stakeholders that you're decarbonizing, one way of doing that is waiting on TVA to do it and just electrifying everything," Charles Sims, the study's lead researcher, told Knox News. "Obviously, the other option might be to do it yourself if you're not exactly sure of the time path that TVA is going to be doing it."

Sims became the Baker School's inaugural TVA Distinguished Professor of Energy and Environmental Policy in November, after TVA gave a $1 million endowment.

The study suggests four different strategies to reach that net-zero goal, including focusing on electric cars or low-carbon fuels. It does not recommend how TVA should make its power system cleaner, leaving that process up to a TVA-led plan coming later this year.

The Baker School gathered representatives from across the economy, including from Ford and Oak Ridge National Laboratory, to develop the study and get feedback.

"We helped support this study because we thought the results would be valuable, not to drive the outcome or the conclusions," Jeff Lyash, CEO and president of TVA, told Knox News.

TVA can think more long term as a federal utility than many private utilities, which must satisfy investors' short-term revenue expectations, Lyash said. But it also serves some of the poorest communities in the country, and the pathways study urged TVA to continue developing low-income communities and maintaining low energy costs.

Preliminary findings from the Valley Pathways Study, which began last year, were shared at the quarterly TVA Board of Directors meeting Feb. 14 in Johnson City.

Here's what the study means and what paths it outlines toward a cleaner 2050.

What does net-zero carbon emissions mean?

Aspirations to achieve net-zero emissions have become popular at the largest and smallest scales in the U.S., from the Biden administration's economywide goal for 2050 and tech giants like Google, which moved its net-zero goal up to 2030, to local power companies.

There is no single accepted definition of what "net-zero" means, but generally it means carbon and methane emissions are almost entirely eliminated, with a plan to remove the remaining emissions from the atmosphere using carbon capture technologies.

The four pathways outlined in the study are projected to lower non-TVA greenhouse gas emissions by between 70% and 90% by 2050, even as they each increase electricity demand. Power demand will rise anyway, since the region's population is projected to increase 22% by 2050.

Four pathways for Tennessee Valley to cut emissions by 2050

The community resiliency pathway puts the onus on local governments and organizations to increase the efficiency of homes, workplaces, and urban centers in order to lower energy demand. It assumes cities and individuals will weatherize their homes, build green spaces to capture carbon, change traffic patterns to reduce tailpipe emissions and source more food locally.

Though this pathway would cut carbon across many different areas, it ends up with the smallest reduction in non-TVA emissions, at around 70%.

The accelerated electrification pathway relies on more cars, trucks, and factories going electric. Electric cars are the single largest carbon reduction opportunity, the study said. This pathway must ramp up EV sales and EV charging networks to be successful. Though electrification comes with the highest energy demand, it reduces non-TVA emissions by more than 80%.

The low-carbon breakthrough pathway relies on advanced fuel technologies more than electrification. These technologies are still mainly in the lab, such as small modular nuclear reactors, hydrogen fuel cells, and grid-level battery storage. These technologies lower electricity demand, but they would not reduce transportation emissions much, resulting in a decrease of non-TVA emissions under 80%.

The combined scenario pathway pulls actions from each of the other three pathways with a focus on electrification. It achieves the greatest decrease in transportation-related emissions, since it combines electrification with low-carbon fuels. Sims, who led the study, said it's the most likely pathway, given the economy's diverse needs. Emissions would decrease nearly 85% in this scenario.

Companies in the Tennessee Valley need help knowing which clean energy technologies to invest in, and Sims said they'll be able to come to the Baker School for advice on what carbon cutting measures fit them best.

"The study itself is not the end game. The study is the first step," Sims said. "We want to know from folks what other information they need. I'm under no illusions that we're gonna do this one study in six months and we're going to provide all the information everyone needs to get to net zero."

Sims said he's a "technology agnostic" who doesn't care which method a company or individual uses. The study was intentionally made simple to be accessible to leaders across the valley who can use it to make decisions.

"At the end of the day, I need my grandma to understand what we're doing here," Sims said. "If we're gonna get buy-in, we need to make it transparent and understandable to the general public and not try to show off with the most sophisticated models."

Study leaves cleaning TVA grid up to, well, TVA

The Baker School and TVA now have twin planning processes that will inform each other, as UT focuses on non-electricity emissions and TVA focuses on making its grid cleaner.

TVA's long-term planning process, revised every five years, is set for an update in 2024.

TVA is partnering with the Environmental Protection Agency, White House Climate Office, local power companies, and ORNL on this year's plan. Like the Valley Pathways Study, the plan will take population growth and electrification into account to set TVA's goals, said Lyash.

The working group invited to help TVA with its planning includes representatives of environmental advocacy groups like the Sierra Club and the conservative ClearPath Foundation.

Still, advocacy groups have criticized TVA's planning process as less transparent than other utilities. Calling TVA a "self-regulated federal monopoly," the Knoxville-based Southern Alliance for Clean Energy hosted a "People's Hearing" on Jan. 25 in Nashville to protest TVA's lack of public hearings.

The group called on TVA to create more opportunities for public feedback to shape its plans, and received a letter from the agency outlining its process of listening sessions and public webinars.

"The lack of transparency and accountability is likely to lead to further investments in new fossil fuel infrastructure, which will expose people in the Tennessee Valley to the risks associated with higher bills and more power outages in the future," said Maggie Shober, research director for the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy.

The organization said TVA rapidly expanded its natural gas plants beyond what its 2019 plan predicted, investing in the fossil fuel despite criticism of its effect on the climate.

U.S. Rep. Steve Cohen, Democrat from Tennessee, announced he would introduce a bill in Congress to increase the transparency of TVA planning. Cohen said the federal agency has "no process for meaningful public input," but did not say when he would introduce the legislation.

The Southern Alliance for Clean Energy sent a brief of its hearing to TVA, including expert testimony calling on the agency to accelerate its clean energy efforts. At the Feb. 14 board meeting, Lyash said some public calls for a cleaner grid did not take electricity affordability into account, given the steep cost of emerging clean energy technologies.

“Many people advocate for TVA to invest in the type of generation that they think is best, and there’s strong views here,” Lyash said. “While we want to hear from a diversity of voices, at the end of they day, TVA has got to develop practical, diverse solutions that meet growing energy demand in real-world conditions."

TVA plans to phase out its remaining four coal plants and add 10,000 megawatts of solar power by 2035. It will invest $15 billion over the next three years to expand generation capacity and $3 billion to improve its transmission system by 2028.

A draft of TVA's integrated resource plan is expected in late March or early April. The full Valley Pathways Study is available at baker.utk.edu/valley-pathways-study.

Daniel Dassow is a growth and development reporter focused on technology and energy. Phone 423-637-0878. Email daniel.dassow@knoxnews.com.

Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe.   

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: TVA-funded carbon emissions report says we can reach net-zero by 2050