NASCAR: 10 drivers most likely to make 2023 playoffs that didn't in 2022 | RYAN PRITT
With 15 drivers earning playoff entry via regular-season win in 2022, to go along with Ryan Blaney, who pointed his way in, it's difficult to imagine a wilder battle for the postseason that what we saw last season.
But with only Kurt Busch not returning from last year's postseason field, and with capable newcomers, veterans and plenty of teams and organizations with momentum, this year's playoff logjam could be even more crowded.
There are so many contenders, in fact, that we couldn't limit it to just 10 when listing drivers capable of crashing the party this season. So, in order from least likely to most likely, here is a list of the 10 drivers who weren't in the 2022 postseason that are capable of making the field in 2023 . . . plus a few honorable mention selections.
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Honorable mention — Ricky Stenhouse, Justin Haley, Ryan Preece
Stenhouse is always a threat at superspeedways, but it’s been longer since he won than you might think. The drought goes back to 2017, when he scored the only two victories of his career with one each at Talladega and Daytona. And after four-straight, top-10 finishes last season, he went the final 22 races in 2022 without a top 12.
Haley was certainly stronger in the second half of 2022 than the first, logging top-fives at Texas (third) and the Roval (fifth) in the final seven races. But outside of that, he wasn’t better than 12th over the final 17 races and unless he breaks through for a win, which certainly is possible, his consistency will have to improve to be a playoff threat.
Preece will replace Cole Custer in the Stewart-Haas No. 41 and the move was reportedly pushed by Tony Stewart. It’s hard to doubt the evaluation of a three-time, Cup Series champ and in part-time duty last season, Preece impressed, registering 11 top-10s in 13 combined Xfinity and Truck Series starts. But in terms of speed, Stewart-Haas was a bit behind the sport’s other premier organizations last year and Preece has never finished higher than 26th in the Cup Series point standings. It can happen, but Preece has a lot to prove in the sport’s top series before we can slot him into the top 10.
10. Noah Gragson, Petty GMS Motorsports
There are only three men to claim seven Cup Series titles; one is the late Dale Earnhardt Sr. and the other two —Richard Petty and Jimmie Johnson — are in Gragson’s corner. Talk about a nice pair of resources for a rookie to have. But with Johnson now invested in Petty GMS, which showed significant improvement in speed last year (more on that in a bit), Gragson figures to have every chance to succeed from the jump.
And all of that ignores Gragson’s obvious talent and the fact that he made he has experience, making 15 Cup Series starts in 2022. With eight wins last last in the Xfinity Series and 13 over the last three years, it was time for Gragson to make the leap and there were seemingly few places better to land.
9. Aric Almirola, Stewart-Haas Racing
A season that started with a promising three-straight, top-six finishes turned into a struggle, with just four top 10s the rest of the way. The 2022 season was supposed to be a farewell for Almirola, but at the request of long-time sponsor Smithfield, Almirola had a change of heart and instead, inked a multi-year contract extension.
Only half of Stewart-Haas’ contingent made the postseason with Almirola and Custer on the outside looking in. With five playoff appearances to his credit, Almirola’s absence was even more disappointing. He’s among the best in the business on superspeedways and is no slouch at the likes of Phoenix, Richmond and New Hampshire, where he scored a win in 2021. A victory at any of those or otherwise and a playoff berth would make another year of bringing home the Smithfield bacon a little more rewarding.
8. Michael McDowell, Front Row Racing
It started as a joke in my house and by the end of the season, it had become merely a repetitive observation.
“Death, taxes and Michael McDowell in the top 10.”
If 2021 was a step forward, 2022 was a leap for the pilot of the No. 34 Ford. McDowell has 28 top-10 finishes in a career that began in 2008 and 12 of them came last season. That was tied for 14th-most with Alex Bowman and was more than William Byron (11), Austin Dillon (11), Chase Briscoe (10), Bubba Wallace (10), Chris Buescher (10), Austin Cindric (9), Kurt Busch (8), Almirola (7) and Brad Keselowski (6) among others.
The 2021 Daytona 500 winner has always been a superspeedway threat and is among the best on road courses, but he also scored top-10s at Bristol (dirt), Charlotte, Pocono, and both Darlington races last season. McDowell put himself in position several times last year. It’ll only need to work out once in 2023.
7. Chris Buescher, RFK Racing
Realistically, drivers five-through-seven could’ve been arranged in any order. Buescher was one of four drivers that registered their first, 2022 win just a little too late as he picked up a victory at Bristol during the playoffs. No organization made more strides in raw speed than Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing over the course of the year, and that peaked with Buescher’s trip to Victory Lane.
Like McDowell, Buescher is always a threat at Daytona, Talladega and road courses but seems to be improving elsewhere with top-10s in 2022 at Atlanta, Dover and Richmond. But while McDowell is staring down the barrel at 40 (he’s 38), Buescher just turned 30 this fall and with Keselowski’s backing, his organization seems determined to become a major player in the Cup Series. Getting one or both of the team’s drivers into the playoffs would go a long way toward that.
6. Erik Jones, Petty GMS Motorsports
Jones too was a winner but too late last season, holding off Denny Hamlin to claim a win at Darlington. It gave the No. 43 car its 200th victory, Jones his second Southern 500 and the organization some vindication after a strong season in which Jones registered 13 top 10s, eight more than in 2021. That improvement was evident from the start with Jones leading 52 laps and finishing third in the season’s second race at Auto Club.
The win in one of the sport’s crowned jewels was a feel-good subplot in a year full of them. After being cast aside by Joe Gibbs Racing at age 24 after the 2020 season, Jones was tossed a life raft by Petty and now, with improved performance, the addition of Johnson and the arrival of a young, talented teammate in Gragson, Jones may be in position to resume the trajectory his career seemed destined for just a few, short years ago.
5. Brad Keselowski, RFK Racing
While Buescher collected the organization's only win, Keselowski was better late in the season too, highlighted by a fifth-place run at Homestead. Next season will mark 11 years since Keselowski’s lone Cup Series title in 2012, but he’s still a competitor and proving his mettle as a driver-owner would certainly be a feather in the cap.
Keselowski’s biggest strength as a driver may be his versatility. Among his top-10 active tracks in terms of average finish, there are short tracks (New Hampshire, Martinsville, Richmond), 1.5-mile tracks (Las Vegas, Kansas) and, unique courses like Pocono, Michigan and Darlington. If given the equipment, Keselowski can win anywhere. He himself, will go a long way in ensuring that happens.
4. Ty Gibbs, Joe Gibbs Racing
From the intentionally wrecking a teammate to winning an Xfinity championship and losing his father just hours later, it’s hard to imagine a more extreme gamut of emotions in an eight-day span.
How did it all affect the 20-year old? That remains to be seen.
What we do know is that Gibbs is a supreme talent and will be sitting in one of the sport’s fastest hotrods, the No. 18 Toyota which was vacated by Kyle Busch, who is off to Richard Childress Racing. Perhaps more importantly, he made 15 Cup Series last year
Gibbs won 11 races in just 51 Xfinity Series starts and a series crown in his only year of full-time competition. Those wins came on an array of tracks as well. It’s not a matte of “if” with Gibbs, it’s “when”.
Here's betting the wait won’t be long.
3. Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing
The heat around Wallace may never cease but any criticism involving his ability was likely silenced for good by a win at Kansas.
There was nothing fluky about it, as Wallace led 58 laps and held off car owner Hamlin for the win. Like Jones and Buescher, the win was too late for a 2022 playoff entry, but if the victory and strong finish that included four top 10s in the final 10 races are any indication, it may just be a sign of things to come. With Hamlin and Michael Jordan leading the way, resources won’t be a problem and with the addition of Tyler Reddick, the organization seems positioned for long-term success.
Wallace still has growing to do, as evidenced by an incident with Kyle Larson at Las Vegas that led to a one-race suspension. And while he seems destined to always make headlines, may just start making postseason appearances this year as well.
2. AJ Allmendinger, Kaulig Racing
It’s been quite a trip to get all the way back to a full-time, Cup Series ride for the 41-year old. From a 2012 drug suspension, through an up-and-down tenure with JTG Daugherty Racing and multiple stints in the Xfinity Series, it’s been a winding road, to say the least. But when it comes to winding roads, “the Dinger” is a ringer and they’re the reason he’s a great bet to make the playoff field in 2023.
Counting the inaugural race on the Chicago Street Course, there are five road courses in the regular season, and nobody has been better at having to turn both ways than Allmendinger. Ten of his 15 Xfinity Series wins, and both of his Cup Series victories have come on road courses. He was leading on the last lap a year ago at COTA before Ross Chastain ruffled the first of a pillow’s worth of feathers, giving Allmendinger the bumper and scoring his first win.
Allmendinger has improved on ovals as well and has claimed Xfinity wins at Atlanta, Las Vegas, Michigan, Bristol and Talladega. But if it involves turning right, chances are Allmendinger will be left holding a trophy and a ticket into the Cup Series postseason.
1. Martin Truex, Joe Gibbs Racing
Martin Truex may as well have been Martin Short in the movie “Pure Luck” in 2022. It took an almost unfathomable 15 different winners over the first 26 races, a miraculous turn of events in favor of Austin Dillon at the regular-season finale at Daytona and a remarkably consistent point season from Ryan Blaney to keep the 2017 champion out of the playoffs. It won’t happen again. It can’t. I’d bet my DraftKings balance on it if I could. (Seriously, sports betting is still illegal here? What gives?)
After kicking around retirement, Truex made the decision to return in 2023 and he didn’t return just to follow up the 2022 season with similar results. Truex is motivated, he can still wheel it, he’s still in one of the sport’s premier rides and the racing gods owe him one. Not only will he make the postseason field, he’s a legitimate championship threat and the clear number one on this list.
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR Cup Series: 10 drivers to make 2023 playoffs who missed in 2022
