NASCAR odds for Southern 500 at Darlington: Avoid Chase Elliott, consider Kevin Harvick
After a decade of wayward thinking, NASCAR brought the Southern 500 back to Darlington and Labor Day weekend in 2015 and since then has found yet another way to apologize for past sins: They made it the opener of the 10-race Cup Series playoffs.
It’s a funky track and, frankly, not a great fit for all racers, but some feel right at home on the egg-shaped Lady in Black.
Among them: Kevin Harvick, who was reeling a bit up until a month ago, when he won two straight races to clinch a playoff spot and now heads into Darlington as the odd-board’s favorite to . . . huh? What’s that?
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Harvick ain’t the Darlington favorite? Nope, he’s at +2,000, sharing the 11th rung of the odds board with Christopher Bell.
While you’ll get some variation here and there, it seems Kyle Larson is the betting favorite Sunday. DraftKings had Kyle at +600, meaning a $100 wager would get you a $600 payoff (my math says a $10 bet gets you $60).
That’s pretty strong stuff for a guy who’s never won at Darlington. Larson was among those wrecked out of this year’s spring race, but before that he had three straight runner-up finishes there. So he seems guaranteed to sniff the lead.
Then it gets odd.
Tyler Reddick feeling the DraftKings love
Tyler Reddick is next at +700 and Chase Elliott next at +800, along with Joey Logano, who won earlier this year at Darlington. Denny Hamlin, who like Harvick has a record of winning at Darlington, is at +900.
Yes, Reddick was second to Logano in the spring, but remember, a nine-car wreck in the late laps took out some potential contenders. And prior to that, Reddick was a mid-packer at Darlington.
And frankly, you can’t be too sure what’s going on behind the scenes — it sure seems as if team owner Richard Childress isn’t wanting to hasten Reddick’s exit to 23XI, which is currently slated for 2024.
Can you say awkward?
Chase Elliott doesn't have the Lady In Black's number
And Chase? Yeah, everybody loves Billy Clyde Elliott and yes, he’s DraftKings’ favorite to win the championship, but it won’t be due to his prowess at Darlington. He was fifth there in the spring and has finished no better than fourth in 11 career starts, half of which he finished outside the top 10.
You should probably stay away from him at Darlington, along with Kyle Busch (contract issues sap horsepower — true story … well, maybe) and Ross Chastain. Ross The Boss hasn’t been the same since they hung a reckless label on him a couple months back.
From this angle and for the price, the best bet might just be Daniel Suarez, who’s 16th on the DraftKings board at +4,000.
And then there’s Erik Jones at +6,000. “That’s about right,” you might say. But hear me out.
His first six career Darlington starts included six top-10s, four top-5s, and a win in the 2019 Southern 500. In three starts since then, it’s been comfortably outside the top 10, but that’s after his move to the Petty team, which this year has stepped up its production a bit.
Jones was running pretty well in the spring before he was gobbled up by the big wreck mentioned earlier.
Who to bet on in the NASCAR Darlington race
Anyway, let’s sum up . . .
You do what you want with your own gambling budget, but here’s what’s being considered from this precinct:
No: Chase Elliott at +800.
No: Ross Chastain at any price.
Probably not: Kyle Busch at just +1,000.
Maybe: Daniel Suarez at +4,000, but let’s see where the numbers go after qualifying.
Yes: Kevin Harvick at +2,000.
Yes: Erik Jones at +6,000 just to put a big potential payoff in the chamber.
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR Cookout Southern 500 odds: Rethink that Chase Elliott bet
