How some NASCAR bettors, DFS players are benefitting from lack of practice, qualifying

The two races on the NASCAR Cup schedule following the Drydene 400 feature a return to the sport‘s traditional rhythm of running practice and qualifying ahead of the main event. That means Sunday‘s race at Dover is the last chance of the month for a certain segment of bettors and DFS players to capitalize on the some of the oddness brought on by the COVID pandemic.

Only eight races this season are preceded by practice and qualifying, and according to some sharp bettors and DFS players, the rest of the schedule provides an even greater edge than they typically find in the markets.

All bettors and bookmakers are privy to practice and qualifying data, evening the playing field to a certain degree. Plus, oddsmakers are quick to move their lines after watching how teams perform on that week‘s track, eroding value from the numbers posted earlier in the week.

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“I absolutely loved last year with no practice and qualifying, and so far this year, with the races I bet that don’t have it, I still feel like I‘m going in with a really good edge,” said Zack White, a professional NASCAR bettor. “There’s just not as much competition in the marketplace either, because a lot of these at least somewhat sharp guys were reliant on having that practice data. …. There were a lot more sharps in the space in the practice and qualifying races prior to 2020 pandemic era. It’s taken quite a few of the sharps out of the equation.”

Micah Roberts, a former Las Vegas sportsbook director who now bets NASCAR and covers the sport from a betting perspective, says without practice and qualifying, a team‘s performance with that week‘s race package and its history at the track become more important handicapping tools. When analyzing Dover this week, for example, bettors should emphasize how well drivers do using the 750 horsepower, low downforce package.

“There‘s value to be found for guys that are sharp and understand that from the get-go,” Roberts said. “I don‘t know if every book does the full work like they would with practice, because most of the bettors would wait until after practice to bet matchups. Now you have to come fully prepared based on what teams do with a certain package.”

Sharps are also exploiting these advantages in DFS, a bettor who goes by the name “AbnormallyDist” (pro gamblers are often notoriously protective of their identity) said on a recent episode of the “Circles Off” sports betting podcast hosted by fellow pro Rob Pizzola.

With practice and qualifying, “there‘d be an obvious pick and you‘d just play the guy whose car was the best in qualifying, and it was easy for NASCAR touts (pick sellers) because there were obvious plays every week,” AD told Pizzola and his co-host. “Now that there‘s no practice, it‘s a little harder because you need to use some more advanced statistics. So the edge, I feel like in the last year, has gone through the roof, and it‘s been really profitable.”

Blake Phillips, another sharp NASCAR bettor, says the lack of practice and qualifying has reinforced his long-held belief that starting position isn‘t as correlated to finishing position as many recreational bettors may think.

“I’ve always thought that starting position wasn’t extremely valuable,” Phillips told NASCAR.com. “The guys that are gonna come out on top usually find a way through the field with these Cup races being as long as they are. You can see the correlation between starting and finishing position drop starting last year and going into this year. So, if anything, you can kind of identify some spots where some things may not be factored in the market, but I don’t think the effect is powerful enough to generate any easy money, per se.”

While Phillips believes the edge from no practice/no quals is more exploitable in DFS than in the betting market, he said there are advantages to be gleaned from a qualitative over a quantitative approach, a notion that should encourage NASCAR bettors who follow the sport closely but may not have the time, patience or mathematical or computer skills to build statistical models.

“There’s value to both (approaches), but being able to follow along and understand why certain drivers do better in certain situations can really help influence your bets and generate an edge that won’t necessarily appear just by looking at the stats,” he said.

Kyle Busch, for example, hasn‘t hid the fact that the lack of practice has made it difficult for his team to find the right setup.

“The drivers who are able to adjust on the fly during a race and improve over the course of the race with their crew chiefs are the ones who tend to see more success that you may not have expected, and the drivers who kind of need a lot of that data from practice aren’t getting it,” Phillips said.

RELATED: Power Rankings heading into Dover

The better teams benefit from this dynamic, Roberts agreed.

“Because there‘s no practice, they can‘t (screw) around on the setup coming out of the garage like they used to,” Robert said. “(They can‘t say) ‘we‘ll figure it out in the first practice, and we‘ll change a few things‘ — they‘ve got to do it during the race.”

Marcus DiNitto is a writer and editor living in Charlotte, North Carolina. He has been covering sports for nearly two-and-a-half decades and sports betting for more than 10 years. His first NASCAR betting experience was in 1995 at North Wilkesboro Speedway, where he went 0-for-3 on his matchup picks. Read his articles and follow him on Twitter; do not bet his picks.