NASCAR Championship Odds: Chase Elliott still favored, but let's look at bigger paydays

The great reset is upon us, Chase Elliott is still the odds-makers’ choice, but in a year unlike any other in memory, you have to consider everyone who has moved on to the Round of 12.

And we’re here to tell you where the biggest payoff might be sitting on the grid.

First, some basics. Four drivers have pulled behind the playoff wall: Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Tyler Reddick and Austin Dillon.

That leaves the not-so-dirty dozen below — a list headed by Chase, and why not? Buoyed by bonus points, he begins the next three-race blast of playoff races with a 31-point cushion between himself and ninth place, which will be the next cutoff in three weeks.

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In order to eventually win the Cup championship, of course, you have to get past the Round of 12. When you give a guy that kind of head-start, it plays on the odds.

At +275, however, the Chase favoritism seems a tad misguided. But the odds-makers have no expertise, they’re just gathering wagers and adjusting their thermostat accordingly. If more people start betting Denny Hamlin, who’s next at +400, his number will shrink and Chase’s will grow.

But you’re not here for Vegas 101, are you?

Nope, let’s look for a potential payday. Let’s slide down the scoring pylon, with a few stops along the way to ponder the situation.

Chase Elliott +275

Denny Hamlin +400

Kyle Larson +650

Chase’s payoff just isn’t enough to get these juices flowing. His status as favorite has to include some measure of heart over head — he is, after all, the Peoples’ Choice.

Hamlin is running well, damn near every week, with occasional bad luck his only issue. He’s never won a championship, and joins Mark Martin on the front row of best modern racers with an empty spot in the trophy case. I like his chances, but I say that every year, and at just +400, which is 4-to-1 odds, I don’t like those chances enough.

Kyle Larson keeps getting some love, which is probably the natural thing for the most recent champ. This is the exact time of year when he flipped the switch last year and went into dominant mode, but given how the Next Gen car has upended the status quo, that might as well be 20 years ago.

Joey Logano +800

Ross Chastain +900

Christopher Bell +900

Ryan Blaney +900

Well, it sure starts to get more interesting here, doesn’t it?

Logano was starting to round into form and look like a good investment, but then he finished 17th and 27th the past two weeks. He does sit second in the standings, however, with a 16-point cushion over ninth place, which gives him a jump on the Round of 8. Of the second-tier favorites, he’s probably the best pick.

But Christopher Bell just won’t go away. He finished top-5 in each of the past three weeks and is gaining believers with each lap, it seems.

Ross The Boss shook off his late-summer slump the past two weeks but will it hold up? And Ryan Blaney? As always, we’re awaiting a lift-off that’s still in a holding pattern.

William Byron +1200

Alex Bowman +2500

From late spring through summer, Billy The Kid was lost. Mediocre, to put it nicely. Forget contending for wins, he couldn’t even find the top 10 with a GPS. Then the playoffs start and he goes 8th, 6th and 3rd. But that +1200 would  likely have to double for a load of potential buyers to kick his tires.

Bowman’s summer mirrored Byron’s. These are Hendrick cars, too. His +2500 should be more enticing, but it’s not. Not this year.

Austin Cindric +5000

Chase Briscoe +5000

Daniel Suarez +5000

Now we’re talking payday.

I don’t think any of these three will eventually hoist the big trophy at season’s end. But this year, nothing is out of the question.

Back to an earlier thought: If you’re gonna be this year’s champ, the next order of business is getting through the next three weeks and into the Round of 8.

Of these three longshots, Austin Cindric is set up best to do that. After this week at Texas, the next two stops are a road course (Charlotte Roval) and a superspeedway “plate race” (Talladega).

Along with being a natural road-course ace, Cindric has quickly adapted to the quirks of pack-racin’ at the monster tracks (he won this year’s Daytona 500 and finished third a few weeks back at Daytona’s Coke Zero 400).

If Cindric indeed makes the Round of 8, and perhaps a couple of favorites stumble and fall out of the playoffs, his odds will obviously shrink and you might wish you’d chipped in a wee bit of laundry money way back when — as in now.

Just a thought.

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Updated NASCAR title odds: Chase Elliott favored, 2022 has been nuts!