What NASCAR drivers are facing at the 2020 Charlotte Roval

One race is left standing between NASCAR’s defending champion and his early exit from the postseason. Kyle Busch is the first driver below the eight-driver cutoff in points to advance to the next round and is still winless in 2020 heading into Sunday’s elimination race at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

While hope is never lost for any driver, especially not Busch, the conditions teams are facing for the Roval 400 will be — much like everything else this year — challenging.

“Strategy-wise, there’s only so much you can do,” No. 19 Toyota driver Martin Truex Jr. said.

That’s because in addition to the traditional trials of a road course elimination race sandwiched within a mostly oval schedule, this could be the year Cup teams put on the rain tires. There is a 70 percent chance of rain Sunday afternoon for NASCAR’s Cup races at the course in Concord, N.C., according to the National Weather Service and AccuWeather.com.

The rain will provide a new challenge for top teams. Wet weather tires, supplied by Goodyear, have never before been used in an official Cup competition.

“I think if it does rain, boy, all Hell is gonna break loose,” No. 14 Ford driver Clint Bowyer said. “There’s a lot of unknowns. I can say that. Unknowns for all of the above. Look out if it rains.”

“More importantly, we know it’s gonna rain if we race,” Bowyer said, referring to NASCAR’s many weather-related delays and postponements for events this season.

Bowyer, who announced Thursday his retirement from racing to transition to broadcasting after his 15th full-time Cup season ends this year, is sitting 38 points below the playoff cutoff. He, along with Busch and Austin Dillon (tied at -21), as well as Aric Almirola (-48), are the four drivers below the bubble and facing elimination prior to the Roval.

Bowyer said he wants to win at Charlotte, but he’ll settle for a second place finish.

“If you finish second, more than likely you’re gonna add stage points to it and somebody is gonna have trouble,” Bowyer said. “You gotta look into this thing as an opportunity and that’s what I’m looking at.”

Other playoff drivers are seeking to build their points cushion before the checkered flag. Those drivers include Joey Logano (+21), Alex Bowman (+22), Truex Jr. (+32), Brad Keselowski (+41) and Chase Elliott (+44). Kurt Busch (win at Las Vegas) and Denny Hamlin (win at Talladega) are locked in, and Kevin Harvick needs only eight points to lock in his spot to the next round.

Busch, who has four road course wins but finished 32nd and 37th at the latest Roval races, said his mentality this weekend is to “race it out” and stay out of trouble.

“But that’s hard to do on such a tight circuit with a lot of stuff going on and a lot of guys making desperation moves,” Busch said. “And us needing to make some desperation moves as well most likely.”

Busch had a solid early run, but a poor finish at the latest road course race at Daytona, which was another first-time experience at a course for the series earlier this year. Busch was chasing down eventual winner Elliott late in the race, but he was forced to exit when his No. 18 Toyota had a brake issue. He finished 37th.

“We’re taking some of that similar philosophy there in order to see if we can’t improve on how our cars drive at the Roval,” said Busch, who will start ninth on Sunday. He said he’s been using the simulator rig to prepare for the race, as have drivers on other teams.

But regardless of where any team or driver finishes this weekend, the bright spot of the challenges is that they’ll serve to help prepare the field for what will become more normalized next season: Namely, more road course racing. With six road courses on the Cup Series schedule in 2021, including at Charlotte, weather-related challenges could also become a regular hurdle and drivers, some of whom have never competed in the rain, will gain experience as their teams build a notebook.

Stewart-Haas Racing Xfinity driver Chase Briscoe, who is leading the series in wins with eight, said he would “love” for it to rain since he’s already locked into the next round. The Xfinity Series raced on rain at Road America earlier this year and Briscoe finished third. He said that the unknown variables could mix up the playoff running order, and that from a fan perspective, the event could be more fun to watch.

From a driving perspective, he said the experience helps.

“(Road course) laps, just in general, is huge,” Briscoe told the Observer. “And that rain experience is invaluable. I don’t think you can put a price on it because it’s so hard to get rain practice in, whether that’s in a race condition or practice or whatever.”

“On the Xfinity side, we’ve done it a couple of times,” said Briscoe, who is a suspected candidate to replace Bowyer in the No. 14 seat next season. “And if I’m able to move up to the Cup Series, and say it rains in one of those six road races next year, if I have rain experience, that’s going to pay dividends just because it is so different than what we do in the dry (conditions).”

For other drivers and teams, however, the forecast looks bleaker. Busch didn’t deny that the weekend brings a make-or-break moment. He’s aware of the historical, elemental and mathematical factors he’s up against this weekend.

“Having Talladega and the Charlotte Roval both in the same round for us is (the) worst case scenario that’s absolutely possible,” Busch said. “So it’s a tough round for us with this team, especially this year.”

But the outcome doesn’t have to be as bleak as the forecast.

“Anything can happen.”