NASCAR Power Rankings: How the eight remaining playoff drivers stack up

Nick Bromberg
·College football and motorsports writer

As half of the playoff field has been eliminated it’s time to assess the final-round chances of the remaining eight drivers in the playoffs. With Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick having accumulated so many playoff points through the first 32 races of the season the next three races could be a fight among six drivers for two spots. Who will take those two spots?

8. Aric Almirola (4,006 points)

Almirola is not only fourth among four Stewart-Haas drivers in this list, he’s last among the eight remaining playoff drivers in our eyes. Getting to the third round is a huge achievement for a No. 10 team that had never made the playoffs with a new driver who had never made the playoffs. If you had Almirola alive at this point in the playoffs at the beginning of the season you were in a small minority.

But we think his run ends here. Almirola has struggled on restarts at times and it’s easy to see how a late-race restart can decide who makes the final round.

Chance of advancing: 20 percent

7. Kurt Busch (4,015 points)

It feels like Busch has been scraping and clawing a bit in the playoffs after entering the final 10 races on such a strong run. Busch had eight-straight top-10 finishes before the postseason and has gone 21st, 18th, fifth, fifth, 14th and 18th. Of course, that 14th came at Talladega where he ran out of gas while leading, but restrictor plate races don’t matter given that Martinsville, Texas, and Phoenix are up next. Busch hasn’t finished in the top 10 at Martinsville since getting his first win at SHR in 2014. That could be a problem.

Chance of advancing: 30 percent

6. Clint Bowyer (4,015 points)

Bowyer returns to the scene of his first Stewart-Haas win at Martinsville. That’s got to be a confidence booster. He was ninth at Texas and sixth at Phoenix earlier in the season so three more top-10 finishes could be enough to advance. But like Busch we are a little hesitant about Bowyer’s chances to advance to the playoffs. Maybe that says more about the big three and the emergence of Chase Elliott than it does about the No. 14 team.

Chance of advancing: 30 percent

5. Joey Logano (4,015 points)

Logano winning at Martinsville to partially avenge the 2015 robbery by Matt Kenseth would be a dramatic storyline this weekend. Logano has never won at the paperclip though he’s been very good there recently. Phoenix may end up being the more pivotal track. Logano hasn’t finished inside the top 10 there since winning the 2016 fall race to advance to the final round. Logano may be the second-youngest driver remaining in the playoffs but he and his team have some of the most playoff experience. That could be vital.

Chance of advancing: 40 percent


4. Chase Elliott (4,018 points)

Elliott’s success at Kansas makes him the fourth-best bet to make the final four at Homestead. He ran well at both Martinsville and Phoenix a year ago in the playoffs and there’s no reason to expect that he won’t again in 2018. While Kansas and Texas are very different 1.5-mile tracks, the Kansas victory gives us reason to think Elliott can improve upon the 11th-place finish he had at TMS in the spring.

Chance of advancing: 55 percent

3. Martin Truex Jr. (4,038 points)

Truex battled to finish fifth at Kansas after finishes of 15th and 23rd in the first two races of the second round. It’s easy to think that Furniture Row has fallen off in the playoffs but it’s worth remembering that Truex got taken out while leading at the Roval, was running in the top 10 at Dover when he got caught in Aric Almirola’s crash and got caught in a late crash at Talladega as well. The No. 78 team is good enough to make it to Homestead again though the run of bad fortune will have to stop immediately.

Chance of advancing: 65 percent

2. Kyle Busch (4,055 points)

Busch escaped the madness of Martinsville a year ago to win the fall race and clinch a spot in the final four. Can he do it again? He’s the only member of the remaining eight playoff drivers to win a fall race at Martinsville. Bowyer, his brother Kurt and Kevin Harvick have all won in the spring. None of the other four drivers have gotten a grandfather clock. It may be like splitting hairs at this point but you can call Busch the favorite on Sunday.

Chance of advancing: 80 percent

1. Kevin Harvick (4,054 points)

Harvick takes the top spot despite having one less point than Busch because of his 2017 fall win at Texas and his success at Phoenix, which is not a new track. Don’t let anyone tell you it’s a new track. Moving the start/finish line should not do anything to screw up Harvick’s advantage at the 1-mile oval. He’s still the guy to beat and it’s not going to surprise anyone if he goes out and wins at Martinsville either. We’re not betting against the guy who has made the final round in three of the four elimination playoff seasons.

Chance of advancing: 80 percent

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Nick Bromberg is a writer for Yahoo Sports.

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