Nashville mayoral campaigns say city feels less safe. But is crime on the rise?

Election campaigns typically feature three "staples:" education, the economy and crime.

At least, that's what John G. Geer has gleaned over decades of studying political science and public policy. Geer, dean of Vanderbilt's College of Arts and Science, is also known in Nashville as the co-director of the Vanderbilt Poll.

Crime is particularly unifying, he said. Residents worry about it for all of the obvious reasons, and candidates talk about ways to reduce it.

"There's nobody who's pro-crime, right?"

Geer's observation rings true with a trip to the mailbox.

Metro Nashville's historic courthouse is pictured engulfed in photoshopped flames in one Alice Rolli ad, surrounded by local television station headlines reporting rampant criminal activity. A red box in the center proclaims "ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!"

Before he suspended his mayoral campaign, Jim Gingrich sent out a lookalike mailer picturing yellow police tape similarly surrounded by clips of crime-focused headlines. "Jim Gingrich is as sick of this as you are," it read.

Matt Wiltshire, who has been endorsed by the Fraternal Order of Police and Davidson County Sheriff Daron Hall, distributed ads promising to "take action to restore security in our city."

"Many Nashvillians don't feel safe anymore," his flyer states, echoing sentiments Wiltshire and other candidates have shared in several mayoral forums.

Has crime in Nashville truly reached a fever pitch? Crime rate data spanning 1963 to mid-2023 suggests otherwise.

While Metro Nashville Police Department data shows violent and property crime have seen upticks over the last few quarters, the crime rates for both are significantly down compared to peaks in the 1990s.

But crime data is nuanced, and measuring people's perceptions of crime, even more so.

"There are times when people just feel less safe even if, in fact, the statistics don't bear it out," Geer said.

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'Would (you) be afraid to walk alone at night?'

There are indications that Nashvillians may feel less safe.

In the 2023 Vanderbilt University Nashville Poll, 96% of participants said "reducing crime" should be a priority for the next Nashville mayor. Of those, 64% said crime reduction should be a "top priority," coming in second only to improving public education at 74%.

Another poll question probed Nashville residents' perception of safety:

"Is there any area near where you live — that is, within a mile or so — where you would be afraid to walk alone at night?"

In 2023, 63% of poll participants said yes, up from 46% in 2018 — a notable increase, according to Geer. Zoomed out, the jump presents as a climb over a few years: In 2019, 59% of respondents agreed, and by 2021, that group had grown to 63%, dipping slightly to 60% in 2022.

Survey data presents patterns that can offer a glimpse into general sentiments, but explaining the reasoning behind people's perceptions is more complicated. Further study may show whether particular groups (say, women, people within a certain age range or people of various racial groups or ethnicities) express safety concerns more acutely than others.

When examining survey data, Geer looks for trends over time, trying to add in some context.

"Think about our community after Covenant," he said. "It shook the foundations of this community, and people felt not only a deep, deep loss, but also, they were fearful for their kids. That's only natural. Sometimes a big event — a horrible event in this case — can shape people's perceptions in lots of ways that play a role."

What the data shows

Crime can be reported and measured in a multitude of ways, but participating police departments throughout the country use the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program to establish a general baseline.

Created in 1930 to collect standardized police report data, the UCR program identifies "Part I" offenses as the most serious crimes, thus the most likely to be reported to police. Offenses are divided into violent crimes (homicide, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault) and property crimes (burglary, larceny and motor vehicle theft). UCR reporting follows a "hierarchy rule" in most cases: For situations with multiple offenses committed at the same time and place, the crime is entered only as the highest-ranking offense.

Crime is typically measured in rates — here, in incidents per 100,000 people — to control for population fluctuations over time.

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According to crime rate data collected by MNPD from 1963 through 2021 (the most recent year with full rate calculations available), Nashville's total crime rate for the aforementioned offenses peaked in 1996 at 11,147 offenses per 100,000 people. The city has grown significantly since then, but its overall crime rate has gradually fallen. In 2021, it landed at 5,080 offenses per 100,000 residents.

Property crime makes up the majority of offenses reported each year, and its rate closely mirrors the overall crime rate. Larceny (theft) has consistently out-ranked auto theft and burglary since the mid-1970s.

Violent crime in Nashville also saw a high in 1996 with a rate of 1,963.2 offenses per 100,000 people. Nashville saw its lowest rate since in 2019 (1,105.2 offenses per 100,000 people), followed by an uptick landing at 1,243.2 offenses per 100,000 people in 2021. Aggravated assault offenses account for much of the recent uptick in violent crime.

Nashville's murder rate dipped to its lowest at 6.4 offenses per 100,000 people in 2013. By 2021, it had risen to 14.8 offenses per 100,000 people (the highest rate was 20.7 offenses per 100,000 people in 1973).

Metro police have flagged gun theft from vehicles as a pressing concern over the last few years. As of July 20, 693 guns had been stolen from vehicles in Nashville, representing 80% of the guns reported stolen this year, according to a news release. In July 2022, 782 guns had been stolen from vehicles.

The department has urged people to secure weapons and valuables and lock their doors (and, importantly, remove the keys) before leaving their vehicle unattended.

"Just like guns taken from vehicles … stolen autos are also routinely involved in criminal activities, including carjackings and robberies," the release states.

In 2021, guns were involved in 85.3% of murders recorded by police, according to data available through the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation. Firearms were involved in 46.7% of that year's recorded aggravated assaults — almost equivalent to all other types of weapon combined.

Words of caution

Crime data, too, comes with caveats.

Comparing crime across cities and counties is tricky business, offering an incomplete picture at best, and harmful or misleading perceptions at worst, according to the FBI.

Many factors can influence the volume and type of criminal offenses in any given place: population density, economic conditions and climate, just to name a few.

Not all crimes are reported to police, with situations influenced by varying levels of trust in law enforcement and community attitudes toward crime. Characteristics of a police force — the number of personnel and available resources, and how aggressively the force pursues crime — can also impact crime reporting.

"One city may report more crime than a comparable one, not because there is more crime, but rather because its law enforcement agency, through proactive efforts, identifies more offenses," according to an FBI guide on variables affecting crime.

Where mayoral candidates stand

Mayoral candidates have largely refrained from taking distinctly bold approaches to policing and public safety this campaign season.

They tend to agree on the basics: The mayor's job, first and foremost, is to ensure residents feel safe in their community. Metro's police department must be appropriately resourced, with oversight and accountability. Crime victims should be centered in care and services as they navigate the legal system.

At a mayoral forum hosted by Tennessee Voices for Victims in May, several of the 11 mayoral candidates summed up their approaches to crime reduction:

• Alice Rolli said she would shift to a "victims justice system" and seek improvement in low crime clearance rates through expanding Nashville's police force, attracting personnel by offering competitive pay and respect and support for the "difficult decisions … that we ask them to make every day." The crime prevention agenda is the education agenda, she said.

• Matt Wiltshire attributed Nashville not feeling "as safe as the city I grew up in" in part to a "disconnectedness amongst our community" that allows more opportunity for crime. He said officers need appropriate compensation, respect and resources to ensure their mental health is taken care of. He would invest in public education and summer programming for children to deter them from criminal activity.

• Vivian Wilhoite said she would take a holistic approach encompassing perpetrators, victims' rights, police enforcement, rehabilitation and neighborhood engagement to strengthen communities. She would invest in education and continue work supporting juvenile court system services. She would also invest in competitive pay for officers, teachers and school staff and Metro employees — "that covers all things when it comes to saving our neighborhoods."

• Sharon Hurt referred to her experience working with victims and said she aims to "restore hope and prosperity on every block." She would offer incentives to officers, possibly including housing incentives, and recruit officers from local colleges. She'd initiate a reading literacy program to "give our kids a pipeline to prosperity and not … prison."

• Freddie O'Connell said supporting safety entails appropriate investments in law enforcement, confidence in the criminal legal system and new, creative crime prevention efforts, including working with social service providers and community members. He cited MNPS-supported program Community Achieves, which brings support services to families, faculty and staff in schools with great need, as an example for future progress.

• Heidi Campbell emphasized support and sufficient equipment for Metro's police force, in addition to employing "smart policing" using lighting and traffic technology to promote safety. She would support more robust after-school programs for children and youth crisis intervention organizations like the Oasis Center. Officers should be supported by social services and mental health support "so … they're not expected to deal with every single issue that citizens have," she said.

• Jeff Yarbro cited his experience working with crime victims to strengthen domestic violence laws and modernize stalking laws. With a "fully-staffed, well-trained and well-compensated" police force as a baseline, he would seek down payment assistance programs to help officers remain in Nashville. He'd support efforts to "make sure every child is known" in schools, and send specifically trained professionals to respond to mental health crises and other issues so police "can focus on the work they're trained to do."

Natisha Brooks, who was not present at the forum, has previously said she supports $70,000 starting salaries for police officers with stipends for living in Davidson County. She supports mental health clinics throughout the county. She proposed hiring security companies to address crime and security concerns in light of Davidson County's officer shortage.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Nashville mayoral campaigns: City feels less safe. What does data show?