Nate Silver: A ‘McConnell moment’ for Biden could give Trump a second term

Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, argued Monday that President Biden’s age is a legitimate concern for voters in the 2024 election, warning that former President Trump could be one “Biden-has-a-McConnell-moment” away from a second term.

“If the expert class doesn’t understand that Biden’s age is both a real concern for voters and a valid concern, they’d better be prepared for a getting second Trump term instead,” Silver wrote in his newsletter.

“This election is probably going to be close, and Trump might be only one Biden-has-a-McConnell-moment away from winning,” he added.

The reference to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) comes in the wake of the GOP leader’s second public freeze-up in just more than a month. McConnell stared ahead for about 30 seconds while taking questions from reporters last Wednesday.

In late July, the 81-year-old senator similarly froze for about 20 seconds during his weekly press conference at the Capitol, before being escorted away.

While there is not massive age gap between Biden and Trump — currently 80 years old and 77 years old, respectively — Silver noted that their age difference is “potentially meaningful,” pointing to population-level data.

“The age of Biden and Trump during their potential second terms corresponds to [the] infection point at which the risk of death begins to increase meaningfully every year,” Silver wrote.

“So again, if voters are diagnosing the candidates just based on population-level data — or perhaps based on their personal experience of being around aging parents and relatives — it’s hardly crazy for them to think the age gap between Biden and Trump is relevant,” he added.

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