National Bank of Ukraine anticipates decrease in currency outflow due to migrants

The NBU expects a 28% reduction in the outflow of foreign currency from Ukraine by migrants
The NBU expects a 28% reduction in the outflow of foreign currency from Ukraine by migrants

Ukrainians residing abroad continue to contribute significantly to the currency outflow; however, a 28% reduction is anticipated in 2024, decreasing from $18 billion to $13 billion, NBU deputy chief Serhiy Nikolaychuk said during a press briefing on Jan. 25.

“In 2022, this outflow was nearly $20 billion. Last year, it slightly decreased to around $18 billion,” he said.

“This year, we expect significant reductions in these travel-related import volumes, approximately down to $13 billion, primarily due to the adaptation of our migrants abroad. Partly, this is also associated with changes in the tax residency of our migrants.”

Regarding the volume of settlements of Ukrainian banks with international payment systems, from April onwards, this volume is approximately $35 million, said another deputy chief of the NBU, Yuriy Heletiy.

Read also: Ukraine’s estimated international currency reserves to decline by end of 2024 – NBU forecast

“So, we do not see any spikes,” Heletiy noted. Regarding the migration forecast, Nikolaychuk reported that next year, as security risks decrease, the NBU expects the return of around 400,000 individuals.

NBU head Andriy Pyshnyi noted that despite the forecasts laid out by the NBU for 2023, predicting “some return of the migration flow that left Ukraine,” this did not happen. On the contrary, a certain outflow was recorded.

“Similarly, the forecast for 2024 takes a cautious approach to the return of the migration flow to Ukraine, primarily due to security risks, but also, notably, the assimilation factor, the adjustment of our citizens to the life they are starting to build abroad,” said Pyshnyi.

According to UN data, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe was estimated at 5.939 million by the end of last year, and globally at 6.343 million.

It was previously reported that the European Union officially extended temporary protection for Ukrainian refugees until March 2025.

Read also: Working in wartime – a discussion with National Bank of Ukraine Governor Andriy Pyshnyi

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