Here’s who national experts predict will win KC Chiefs-Miami Dolphins playoff game

Before Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback, the Chiefs’ all-time playoff record was 9-18. With a win Saturday night over the Miami Dolphins in an AFC Wild Card game, the Chiefs will get to .500 in postseason games for their history.

Mahomes has an 11-3 record in playoff games and in addition to trying to get the Chiefs to .500, he’ll try to guide Kansas City to its first victory over Miami in the postseason.

Miami is 3-0 all-time against the Chiefs in playoff games. Here’s a look back.

The Dolphins beat the Chiefs 27-17 on Dec. 31, 1994 as Dan Marino outdueled Joe Montana. The Chiefs lost a heartbreaker on Jan. 5, 1991 when Miami scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns and won 17-16.

But that wasn’t the worst playoff loss to the Dolphins. On Christmas Day in 1971, Miami scored a touchdown late in regulation, survived a missed field-goal attempt by the Chiefs in the dying seconds and won 27-24 in double overtime. The Dolphins also blocked a field-goal attempt in the first overtime in what remains the longest game in NFL history.

Can the Chiefs get that first playoff win over Miami? Here are who 78 national experts are predicting will win the game, which kicks off at 7:10 p.m. and airs on KSHB (Ch. 41) in Kansas City and streams on Peacock.

A 24-17 Chiefs win is the prediction from the Sporting News’ Vinnie Iyer. Here is an excerpt from his story: “When the teams played in Germany in Week 9, there was little offense from Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa as the Chiefs held on for a 21-14 victory. Miami’s struggles are real as injuries to Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert have thrown off the mojo. There’s a chance they return to help, but of late, the Dolphins have been easier to stop if a team can contain Tyreek Hill. Hill’s former team can do that with its strong all-around corner play led by L’Jarius Sneed, while Chris Jones and the pass rush limit Tagovailoa’s time to throw downfield.”

A 24-20 Chiefs win is the projection from the Arizona Republic’s Jeremy Cluff. Here is what he wrote: “The Chiefs may not be as good as they were last season, but they still have the experience factor and the Dolphins only have one win against a team with a winning record all season.”

A 23-22 Chiefs victory is the prediction for the Associated Press’ Rob Maaddi. This is part of what he wrote: “Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs (11-6) sure missed Hill this season. Mahomes couldn’t overcome mediocre wide receivers and Kansas City slipped to a No. 3 seed. Mahomes will still most likely have to play his first career road playoff game at some point if the Chiefs advance but they’re home Saturday night and it’ll be cold.”

The Chiefs will win 30-21, says the Los Angeles Times’ Sam Farmer. Here is a snippet from his story: “The Chiefs have their shortcomings but it’s really hard to bet against them at home, particularly when it’s expected to be bitterly cold. Missing all those edge rushers, the Dolphins aren’t going to be able to sign guys off the street who will keep Mahomes under wraps. Kansas City’s defense creates some turnovers.”

All eight writers at CBS Sports believe the Chiefs will win: Pete Prisco, Jared Dubin, John Breech, Ryan Wilson, Tyler Sullivan, Dave Richard, Will Brinson and Jamey Eisenberg. Prisco sees a 26-19 final score. This is from his story: “The Dolphins will go into Arrowhead a banged-up team, especially on defense. They will be down their top three pass rushers. That’s a problem against Patrick Mahomes, even if the Chiefs offense has struggled this season by comparison to past Mahomes teams.”

All seven NFL coaches/executives polled by The Athletic see the Chiefs winning. “I can’t pick against Kansas City — at home, in the playoffs,” an executive told the Athletic. “Miami is beat up, as well.”

Picking the Chiefs are all eight USA Today writers: Jarrett Bell (31-17 final score), Chris Bumbaca (24-19), Nate Davis (20-7), Safid Deen (30-17), Tyler Dragon (26-21), Victoria Hernandez (23-17), Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz (30-20) and Lorenzo Davis (26-14). Here is what Deen wrote: “The Dolphins are hobbled with injuries to key contributors to their 11-win season and must go on the road to play the defending champions. Sure, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have struggled offensively but they’ll have more than enough to beat Miami at home.”

The Chiefs are the pick for three of five writers at NFL.com: Ali Bhanpuri (22-17 final score), Brooke Cersosimo (26-23), Dan Parr (23-18), Gennaro Filice (23-17) and Tom Blair (23-17). Here is what Filice wrote: “A laser light show in September, Miami hobbled into January as a severely diminished outfit. Adding insult to a devastating wave of injuries: The team from Miami must open the playoffs in Kansas City, where the forecasted temperature for Saturday night has been teetering around ZERO degrees. Welcome back, Tyreek! All that said, the Chiefs enter this postseason looking as beatable as we’ve ever seen them in the Mahomes era. Kansas City started the season at 6-1, but since Week 8, the Chiefs are 5-5 with an offense in this span that ranks 26th in scoring, one spot below the Steelers. We all keep asking the same question: Can K.C. flip the switch? Maybe, maybe not. But I’m not even sure Miami’s house has power.”

Nine of the 10 members of the Dallas Morning-News think the Chiefs will prevail: Dana Larson, Damon Marx, Craig Miller, Newy Scruggs, Kevin Sherrington, Michael Gehlken, Joey Hayden, David Moore and Calvin Watkins. Picking Miami is Tim Cowlishaw.

Three of four panelists at “Good Morning Football” see the Chiefs winning.

Eight of nine writers at the Athletic picked the Chiefs: Nick Kosmider, Tashan Reed, Chad Graff, Zack Rosenblatt, Zak Keefer, Zac Jackson, Ben Standig and Larry Holder. Taking Miami is Mark Kaboly.

The Chiefs are the choice for Pro Football Talk’s Chris Simms (24-20 final score) and Mike Florio (23-17).

SiriusXM’s Rich Gannon and Bruce Murray picked the Chiefs.

Nine of the 10 experts at ESPN have the Chiefs winning: Stephania Bell, Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Jeremy Fowler, Jason Reid, Kimberly Martin, Dan Graziano, Lindsey Thiry and Seth Wickersham. Going with the Dolphins is Moses Moody.

All nine SB Nation writers see the Chiefs winning: James Dator, Debbie Emery, Jeanna Kelley, Brandon Lee Bowton, Jared Mueller, RJ Ochoa, March Schofield, Pete Sweeney and Matt Warren.