National Hurricane Center: Hurricane Idalia brings 5% flash flood risk to Pensacola

Benjamin Johnson, Pensacola News Journal
Updated ·3 min read

As Hurricane Idalia continues moving toward Florida, the National Hurricane Center now has the Pensacola and Escambia County area within the flash flood zone.

According to the three-day flash flood risk zone map, Escambia and Santa Rosa counties have between a 5% and 15% risk of flash floods beginning Wednesday morning.

Despite our area being a flash flood risk, Idalia's projected path still puts Pensacola clear of the hurricane's landfall and storm surge.

Idalia to miss Pensacola: Tropical Storm Idalia not forecast to hit Pensacola, but will bring dangerous rip currents

NHC also shows portions of Pensacola Beach, Gulf Breeze, Navarre and southeastern portions of Santa Rosa County have a %5-10% chance of tropical-storm-force wind speeds as Idalia moves along its current projected path.

For winds to be considered at tropical storm strength, the storm must average 39 mph for one minute.

What are the flash flood risk categories?

The risk categories and their graphics, created in conjunction with the National Weather Service and National Centers for Environmental Prediction, estimate the probability that an area will receive enough rainfall that exceeds the flash flood guidance.

The National Hurricane Center's flash flood risk map places Pensacola in the marginal category of at least a 5% risk as Hurricane Idalia continues to move toward Florida's Big Bend.
The National Hurricane Center's flash flood risk map places Pensacola in the marginal category of at least a 5% risk as Hurricane Idalia continues to move toward Florida's Big Bend.

Here are the risk categories:

  • Marginal: at least 5%

  • Slight: at least 15%

  • Moderate: at least 40%

  • High: at least 70%

Pensacola's marginal risk of flash flooding from Hurricane Idalia may also be increased due to a small weather system moving toward the Panhandle.

NWS forecaster Steve Miller told the News Journal that the weather front moving toward Pensacola brings an 80% to 90% chance of storms and rainfall Wednesday.

What other risks does Hurricane Idalia bring to Pensacola?

Miller also said Idalia could bring dangerous rip currents and surf levels, along with making boating extremely difficult.

"As Idalia moves into the Gulf, we'll see increased swell, and that's going to bring a high risk of rip currents along area beaches with a good chance of rough surf," Miller told the News Journal. "A small craft advisory has been issued."

Small craft advisories are issued winds more than 23 mph and sea waves more than 7 feet.

Estimated arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds from Hurricane Idalia 11 a.m. Aug. 29, 2023.
Estimated arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds from Hurricane Idalia 11 a.m. Aug. 29, 2023.

Escambia County Public Information Officer Andie Gibson said the county is still monitoring Idalia and will be ready to respond if the path changes but they are not currently activating. She also gave the same warning about "dangerous rip currents" around Escambia County beaches with Idalia moving in.

Santa Rosa County Emergency Management noted on its Facebook page that, "Aside from the marine/coastal impacts, additional tropical-related impacts from Hurricane Idalia are not anticipated for the rest of the area at this time."

Where is Hurricane Idalia now?

Hurricane Idalia's outer bands approached the Florida Peninsula late Tuesday morning, and was clocking 85 mph winds as it picked up its northerly pace. Residents of Florida's Gulf coast and Big Bend areas were urged to prepare for their final storm plans, whether those are evacuating or preparing their property.

Live updates: Hurricane Idalia storm surges up to 15 feet now forecast for part of Florida Big Bend

At least 22 Florida counties were under some kind of evacuation orders early Tuesday. Here are some other developments Monday morning:

  • Storm surge from the Ochlockonee River to the south to Yankeetown in the north are expected to increasingly, from south to north, range from 6 to 15 feet, the National Hurricane Center predicted in its 11 a.m. update. For comparison, Hurricane Ian brought 10-15-foot storm surges to Lee County last year.

  • Sarasota and Manatee counties are expecting more than 4 feet of storm surge as Hurricane Idalia roars by.

  • State capital Tallahassee is now under "very rare" hurricane threat.

  • The Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore was spotted in Cedar Key, one of the spots forecasters believe may see major impacts from Idalia.

Check here for updates on the path and intensity of Hurricane Idalia as it approaches Florida's coast.

John Gallas of USA Today contributed to this report.

This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Hurricane Idalia brings flash flood risk to Pensacola