National Hurricane Center revises forecast. What will Tropical Storm Philippe do?
The National Hurricane Center is tracking one system in the Atlantic basin: Tropical Storm Philippe.
Forecasts have changed for Philippe. Monday, the NHC was predicting Philippe could become a hurricane as it moves to the north. Today, expectations are that Philippe will remain a tropical storm.
But that may change again if Philippe runs into an area later this week that could support strengthening. It's currently running into wind shear, which inhibits development.
Philippe poses no direct threat to Florida at this time, according to the Florida Division of Emergency Management.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across Barbuda, Antigua, and Anguilla this morning. Strong gusty winds are also likely elsewhere in the Leeward Islands today.
We're currently in the middle of the busiest period of the Atlantic hurricane season. The season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, with the most-active period running from mid-August through mid-October.
The Atlantic has now generated enough Accumulated Cyclone Energy to officially meet NOAA’s definition of an above-normal #hurricane season. 2022 was classified as near-normal. 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021 were defined as above-normal, while 2017 and 2020 were extremely active. pic.twitter.com/kN9yvVfg0t
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 2, 2023
Through the end of September, the Atlantic has produced 81 named storm days, according to Colorado State University hurricane expert Philip Klotzbach.
"That's the 6th-most on record through 9/30, trailing (in descending order from most): 1933, 1995, 2005, 2004, 2020.
"The Atlantic has now generated enough Accumulated Cyclone Energy to officially meet NOAA’s definition of an above-normal #hurricane season. 2022 was classified as near-normal. 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021 were defined as above-normal, while 2017 and 2020 were extremely active."
Here's the latest information as of 11 a.m.:
Tropical Storm Philippe
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Location: 70 miles northwest of Anguilla; 1,160 southeast of West Palm Beach
Maximum wind speed: 45 mph
Direction: northwest at 10 mph
At 11 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 63.9 West. Philippe is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a northward motion late Wednesday through Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to pass just north of the British Virgin Islands today and then move away from the northern Leeward Islands beginning tonight. However, the strongest winds and heaviest rains will likely occur in the islands to the southeast of the center.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph, with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Philippe could begin to strengthen a bit late this week.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles, primarily to the east and southeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb
September look at the tropics: September saw 7 named storms in tropics, including 3 hurricanes
Forecast path: Spaghetti models for Philippe
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What else is out there?
There are two tropical waves in the far eastern and central Atlantic being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. Both are moving west.
More on Tropical Storm Philippe: Tropical Storm Philippe threatens Leeward Islands
Who is likely to be impacted?
Rainfall from Anguilla southward to Montserrat, including St. Kitts and Nevis, and the British Virgin Islands is expected to be 4 to 8 inches, with some areas seeing up to 12 inches.
The remainder of the Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands could get 1 to 4 inches. The U.S. Virgin Islands and northeast Puerto Rico are expected to get 2 to 4 inches of rain.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area and possible within the watch area today. Strong gusty winds are also likely elsewhere in the Leeward Islands today.
Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the VirginIslands, and Puerto Rico through midweek.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Tropical forecast over the next seven days
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
Noaa
Embedded content: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png?052051
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Tropics update from National Hurricane Center. Tropical Storm Philippe
