Hurricane Lee weakening but still considered 'large and dangerous cyclone'
Hurricane watches, tropical storm watches and warnings, and storm surge watches have been issued for several areas in New England as Hurricane Lee approaches, according to the last advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
While Lee continues to weaken — it's now a Category 1 storm — becoming a post-tropical cyclone within 60 hours, right now it is a "large and dangerous cyclone while it approaches eastern Eastern New England and Atlantic Canada into the weekend," NHC forecasters said.
The storm started making its expected turn to the north Wednesday night. AccuWeather forecasters advised residents in the path to complete their preparations by Friday.
Highlights from 2 p.m. advisory
Hurricane conditions and coastal flooding are possible in portions of eastern Maine, southern New Brunswick, and western Nova Scotia on Saturday, and a hurricane watch is in effect for that area.
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.
The center of Lee is expected to approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday.
There is the potential for life-threatening storm surge flooding in portions of southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and Nantucket, late Friday and Saturday, where a storm surge watch is in effect.
Dangerous surf and rip currents are affecting much of the East Coast of the United States.
By the time Lee makes landfall in North America, it will have traveled close to 3,000 miles since birth last week over the central Atlantic, according to AccuWeather.
Lee holds the title of the strongest hurricane during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. Winds hit 165 mph Sept. 8. Just 24 hours earlier, Lee was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds before it underwent rapid intensification.
Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical system's sustained winds increase by 35 mph or more in 24 hours. Lee more than doubled down that criteria, which is extremely rare, according to AccuWeather.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Margot was weakening early this morning, with winds dropping to 75 mph. But it strengthened a bit for the 11 a.m. advisory.
Invest 97L in the central Atlantic is expected to become a tropical depression over the next couple of days.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 2 p.m.:
Forecast path: Where is Hurricane Lee going?
Lee is expected to approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday, and move across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting Hurricane Lee will make landfall near coastal Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, with an outside chance for landfall as far west as Down East Maine, this weekend.
Hurricane Lee projected path: Lee expected to bring big surf, dangerous currents to US East Coast
Impact of Hurricane Lee on Florida, US East Coast
Hurricane Lee is expected to produce widespread heavy surf and rip currents along the entire U.S. East Coast this week, according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger.
"This massive windfield will expand further even as maximum winds decline, and that will drive heavy surf, rip current, and beach erosion impacts along the Florida East Coast north of Palm Beach between today and Sunday," Truchelut said Tuesday.
"Large swells from northward-moving Hurricane Lee will cause seas to build to between 5 and 8 feet near the coast and up to 10 feet well offshore through tonight. A small craft advisory is now in effect for all east central Florida Atlantic waters," according to the National Weather Service Melbourne.
"Expect breaking waves in the surf zone to build to between 6 and 8 feet north of Sebastian Inlet this afternoon and 4 to 7 feet between Sebastian and Jupiter Inlets. The larger breaking waves will spread south of Sebastian Inlet after sunset. Minor beach erosion will be possible around the times of high tide."
AccuWeather forecasters recommended preparation for Lee should be completed by Friday from eastern New England to New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. High winds, heavy rain and coastal flooding can be expected over the weekend.
Lee is a very large hurricane.
"Even if the eye of Lee stays to the east of Cape Cod, Massachusetts, the sprawling storm will bring dangerous and damaging conditions to much of eastern New England as well as the Maritime Provinces of Canada as it moves northwestward," according to AccuWeather.
Residents can expect winds to increase and seas to build. Coastal flooding or storm surge will spread northwestward into eastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes this weekend, AccuWeather said.
"Power outages and tree damage are likely. Some roads will become blocked by high water, trees and other dangerous debris and washouts.
Power outage tracker:Find out how widespread outages are at any given time
"The worst conditions on Cape Cod will occur late Friday night and Saturday as Lee tracks more than 100 miles to the east later Saturday morning," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
Florida impact: Hurricane Lee could cause Florida erosion, follow FSU football to Boston | Forecast
How to escape rip current: Graphics show how rip currents endanger swimmers
Hurricane Lee impacts: What to expect and when
Hurricane #Lee might be far from the US coast, but its waves and swell energy are sprawling. In addition, tides are already elevated around today's New Moon. pic.twitter.com/0WW7tFhunf
— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) September 14, 2023
Wind: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket on Friday afternoon.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area elsewhere in coastal New England and Atlantic Canada late Friday into Saturday.
Storm surge: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the wind watch areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surf: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the east coast of the United States, and are beginning to reach Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Rainfall: From Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches across portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. This could produce localized urban and small stream flooding.
Hurricane Lee: Forecast path and how strong is it?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Location: 710 miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts; 796 miles east of Jacksonville
Maximum wind speed: 85 mph
Direction: north at 14 mph
At 2 p.m., the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 68.4 West. Lee is moving toward the north near 14 mph and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. A turn toward the north-northeast and then northeast is forecast Saturday night and Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of Lee will pass west of Bermuda through this evening, approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday, and move across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday.
Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, but Lee is expected to remain a large and dangerous hurricane for the next couple of days.
Lee is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles.
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 957 mb.
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Watches and warnings in effect in anticipation of Hurricane Lee's arrival
A hurricane watch is in effect for:
Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border
New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,including Grand Manan Island
Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour
A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
Bermuda
Massachusetts coast from Woods Hole to Hull
Martha's Vineyard
Nantucket
A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Stonington, Maine
Block Island
North of Hull Massachusetts to Stonington Maine
New Brunswick from north of Point Lepreau to Fort Lawrence
Nova Scotia west coast from north of Digby to Fort Lawrence
Nova Scotia southeast coast from north of Medway Harbour toPorter's Lake
A storm surge watch is in effect for:
Cape Cod Bay
Nantucket
Hurricane Lee maximum sustained winds forecast
Prediction and timing of winds:
12 hours: 85 mph
24 hours: 80 mph
36 hours: 80 mph
48 hours: 75 mph
60 hours: 65 mph (post-tropical)
72 hours: 50 mph (post-tropical)
96 hours: 40 mph (post-tropical)
120 hours: dissipated
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Lee
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Hurricane Margot expected to gradually weaken
Location: 710 miles west of the Azores
Maximum sustained winds: 80 mph
Movement: north-northeast at 6 mph
At 11 a.m., the center of Hurricane Margot was located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 39.8 West. Margot is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph and a slower forward motion is expected today. Margot is forecast to meander within weak steering currents on Friday and make a small clockwise loop over the weekend.
Satellite-wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph, with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb.
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Margot
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Invest 97L: Showers and thunderstorms show some organization in association with a broad low pressure area located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and this system is very likely to become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 90 percent.
Formation chance through seven days: high, 90 percent.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Hurricane Margot poses no threat to land.
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from Invest 97L.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Tropical forecast over the next seven days
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
Noaa
Embedded content: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png?052051
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: NHC Hurricane Lee updates: Forecast path, spaghetti models, impacts
