National Hurricane Center tracking Hurricanes Lee, Margot, Invest 97L. See expected impact
The National Hurricane Center continues to track two hurricanes and a system expected to soon become a tropical depression, according to the latest advisory.
Hurricane Lee is expected to reach the coast of Maine, New Brunswick, or Nova Scotia in about four days.
It's impacts will be felt much farther away due to its size. Wind, rain and coastal flooding are expected in New England and Atlantic Canada because of it's broad wind field, NHC forecasters said.
Indirect impacts of dangerous surf, life-threatening rip currents and coastal erosion are expected from Florida to Maine.
Farther east in the Atlantic, Hurricane Margot is expected to gradually weaken during the next few days.
And a system of low pressure identified as Invest 97L moving into the central Atlantic is expected to become a tropical depression by the weekend.
Highlights from 11 a.m. advisory
Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall and high surf are expected in Bermuda beginning early Thursday.
The risk of wind, coastal flooding and rain impacts are increasing for portions of New England and Atlantic Canada.
Watches may be required for some of these areas later today or tonight.
Lee is likely to remain a large and dangerous hurricane into the weekend.
Seas are forecast to reach 6 to 8 feet well offshore from Cape Canaveral northward late this afternoon, and up to 10 feet by late tonight.
Dangerous surf and rip currents are affecting portions of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coast, and these conditions are forecast to spread northward across New England and Atlantic Canada later today.
By the time Lee makes landfall in North America, it will have traveled close to 3,000 miles since birth last week over the central Atlantic, according to AccuWeather.
Lee holds the title of the strongest hurricane during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. Winds hit 165 mph Sept. 8. Just 24 hours earlier, Lee was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds before it underwent rapid intensification.
Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical system's sustained winds increase by 35 mph or more in 24 hours. Lee more than doubled down that criteria, which is extremely rare, according to AccuWeather.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 11 a.m.:
Forecast path: Where is Hurricane Lee going?
"Landfall is most likely in Nova Scotia, Canada, this weekend, but any waver in the track caused by non-tropical weather systems such as the high pressure to the east and the approaching jet stream could pull the hurricane westward toward New England or push it farther east toward Newfoundland and Labrador," said AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno.
At this time, AccuWeather meteorologists expect a high risk to lives and property from damaging winds and flooding on much of Nova Scotia, Down East Maine and southwestern New Brunswick from Saturday to Sunday.
However, some risk from direct impacts from Hurricane Lee extends as far to the west as Rhode Island and includes all of eastern Massachusetts, southeastern New Hampshire, and central and coastal Maine.
The stretch of coastline along Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts, will likely have a moderate risk of impacts, mainly from coastal flooding.
Hurricane Lee projected path: Lee expected to bring big surf, dangerous currents to US East Coast
Impact of Hurricane Lee on Florida, US East Coast
Hurricane Lee is expected to produce widespread heavy surf and rip currents along the entire U.S. East Coast this week, according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger.
"With gales already covering an extent of open ocean greater than the distance between Jacksonville and Miami, be grateful Lee will pass over 700 miles east of Florida.
"This massive windfield will expand further even as maximum winds decline, and that will drive heavy surf, rip current, and beach erosion impacts along the Florida East Coast north of Palm Beach between today and Sunday," Truchelut said Tuesday.
A high risk of numerous life-threatening rip currents continues at all central Florida Atlantic beaches, according to the National Weather Service Melbourne.
"Additionally, moderate swells form major Hurricane Lee will spread into the surf zone, producingbreaking waves as high as 4 to 5 feet by this afternoon, especially from Cape Canaveral northward. Entering the ocean remains strongly discouraged!
"Seas will continue to steadily build today through tonight as moderate to large swells from distant major Hurricane Lee spread across the local Atlantic. Seas are forecast to reach 6 to 8 feet well offshore from Cape Canaveral northward late this afternoon, and up to 10 feet by late tonight. Seas will build to between 5 and 7 feet closer to the Volusia and Brevard coasts, and well offshore south of Sebastian Inlet late this afternoon, and up to 8 feet late tonight.
"Small craft operation over the local Atlantic will become increasingly dangerous, especially over the open waters well offshore and near inlets. Small craft advisories will be in effect for most of the local Atlantic waters through tonight."
Coastal flooding at times of high tide is likely along portions of North Carolina's Outer Banks and southeastern Virginia this week, with a peak possible Friday, according to AccuWeather.
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How to escape rip current: Graphics show how rip currents endanger swimmers
Hurricane Lee: Forecast path and how strong is it?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Location: 430 miles south-southwest of Bermuda; 794 miles east of West Palm Beach
Maximum wind speed: 115 mph
Direction: north-northwest at 9 mph
At 11 a.m., the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 67.2 West. Lee is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph. A turn toward the north is expected by tonight, followed by an increase in speed on Thursday and Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Lee will pass west of Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night and then approach the coast of New England or Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph with higher gusts. Lee is a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next fewdays, however, Lee is likely to remain a large and dangerous hurricane into the weekend.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb.
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Hurricane Lee maximum sustained winds forecast
Prediction and timing of winds:
12 hours: 110 mph
24 hours: 105 mph
36 hours: 100 mph
48 hours: 90 mph
60 hours: 85 mph
72 hours: 80 mph
96 hours: 60 mph
120 hours: 40 mph
A Category 5 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of at least 157 mph.
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Lee
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Hurricane Margot growing stronger
Location: 795 miles west-southwest of the Azores
Maximum sustained winds: 90 mph
Movement: north-northwest at 7 mph
At 11 a.m, the center of Hurricane Margot was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 40.4 West. Margot is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph and this motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. Then, Margot is likely to stall or meander within weak steering currents into the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours.
Satellite data indicated that Margot's hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb.
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Margot
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Invest 97L: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are showing some signs of organization.
This system's low-level circulation is gradually becoming better defined, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend as the low moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 70 percent.
Formation chance through seven days: high, 90 percent.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Hurricane Margot poses no threat to land.
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from Invest 97L.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Tropical forecast over the next seven days
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
Noaa
Embedded content: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png?052051
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: NHC Hurricane Lee updates, tracker, impacts expected. Margot to weaken
