National Hurricane Center tracking system expected to become tropical depression next week
A new tropical depression could form next week as a tropical wave moves toward the Caribbean, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Chances for development over the next seven days continue to increase and now stand at 80 percent.
Forecasters also continue to track Tropical Storm Sean.
Sean is expected to weaken into a post-tropical remnant low over the weekend.
Elsewhere, Typhoon Bolaven is heading toward Alaska — yes, you read that right — and the size and power of the storm could affect weather across the U.S. next week, according to AccuWeather.
As of Thursday night, winds were estimated to be at least Category 4 strength of 130 mph or higher. Some satellites estimated Bolaven's strength at Category 5, with sustained winds of up to 180 mph.
"This would make Bolaven the second-strongest storm on Earth this year, after Typhoon Mawar late last spring," AccuWeather reported.
After bringing heavy rains and strong wind gusts from south-central Alaska to the Alaskan Panhandle, what's left of Bolvean will be taking a ride on the jet stream and that will affect weather patterns across the lower 48 states, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
Warmer, drier weather can be expected across the western U.S. late next week while the east coast of the U.S. could see cooler temperatures, with stormy, rainy and windy days in store for the Northeast over the Oct. 20-22 weekend.
"It's a fascinating connect-the-dots type of pattern," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg.
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"What happens in another part of the world really does have an impact on what happens at home."
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 5 p.m.:
Tropical Storm Sean: Where is it and where is it going?
Location: 1,235 miles west of Cabo Verde Islands
Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph
Movement: west-northwest at 12 mph
Pressure: 1006 mb
At 5 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Sean was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 42.5 West. Sean is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph. A turn toward the northwest is expected later this evening, and this motion should continue the next day or so. Sean is then expected to turn back toward the west-northwest by Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph, with higher gusts. Additional weakening is anticipated. Sean will likely become a post-tropical remnant low over the weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Sean
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What else is out there and how likely is it to strengthen?
Invest 94L: A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by the end of the weekend while the disturbance begins to move westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Additional development is expected after that, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle portion of next week as the system moves steadily westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: high, 80 percent.
Spaghetti models for Invest 94L
Who is likely to be impacted?
No direct threat to Florida from Tropical Storm Sean or Invest 94L are expected over at least the next five to seven days, according to the Florida Division of Emergency Management.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Tropical forecast over the next seven days
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
Noaa
Embedded content: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png?052051
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Tracking the tropics: NHC update on Invest 94L, Tropical Storm Sean
