The National Hurricane Center has launched a new hurricane forecasting model to help meteorologists predict more accurately what tropical systems will do.

Called the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, the new model came online in late June and will work in tandem with other models this hurricane season before taking over as the primary model next year.

Experimental runs of the system from 2019 to 2022 showed a 10-15% improvement in track predictions compared to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s existing hurricane models, according to the announcement. The new model is as good as current models at predicting storm intensity, but NOAA says it is better at predicting “rapid intensification.”

“With the introduction of the HAFS forecast model into our suite of tropical forecasting tools, our forecasters are better equipped than ever to safeguard lives and property with enhanced accuracy and timely warnings,” Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said in a statement. “HAFS is the result of strong collaborative efforts throughout the science community and marks significant progress in hurricane prediction.”

The system will have several updates over the next four years, and by 2027, NOAA estimates the new system will reduce mistakes by nearly half when compared to 2017 models. It is also the first new major forecast model using NOAA’s updated weather and climate supercomputers, which were installed last summer.

“The moving nest is like a high-definition TV that allows us to zoom into areas of a hurricane such as the eyewall and bands of intense rain,” Sundararaman “Gopal” Gopalakrishnan, senior meteorologist and leader of the modeling team, said. “With a resolution down to 1.2 miles or 2 kilometers in a model with a general resolution of 7 miles or 12 kilometers, we can better predict wind speeds and precipitation amounts.”

Gopalakrishnan said in the future, the model will also allow forecasters to track multiple hurricanes at once.

Eliza Noe, eliza.noe@virginiamedia.com