NATO Summit and Russia: what will be put on Putin's table, and what will Ukraine gain

Russia closely followed the decisions at the Vilnius summit.

In some respects, the NATO summit in Vilnius was successful. Turkey lifted their veto on Sweden's accession. The North Atlantic Alliance has become stronger. The Baltic Sea has become NATO's inland sea. Russia is blocked near Kaliningrad and in the Gulf of Finland. It is safe to say that Russia no longer has a Baltic Fleet. More precisely, it does not need it as an instrument of aggression. It will no longer play any role. This is lamentable news for Putin and Russia. The fleet is one of the centers of gravity for the Russian government and has always been.

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However, there is one point. Some people in the Kremlin are determined to go all the way. That is, to a nuclear conflict. They are seriously considering the use of tactical and strategic nuclear weapons.

The fact that there was no formal invitation to Ukraine, no open invitation in the final declaration, could be perceived by this wing of Armageddon, as they say, the nuclear wing, as weakness. They can submit proposals, saying, let's now press both the West and Ukraine; they are afraid of us.

They might not have been impressed by Ukraine's non-invitation to NATO.

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In the European press, in Germany, and even in America, there were phrases before the summit and now after the summit that, if you pulled them out and put them on Putin's desk, you would get the impression that the United States blinked in this duel of views, in this global confrontation. There is a risk that the Kremlin will misinterpret this signal.

However, unlike the statements of Russian leaders, when they constantly lie, American leaders are cautious about their words, weighing them carefully. When Biden spoke after the G7 meeting, he said that NATO is more united than ever before in history and that "we have not wavered one iota in our commitment to help Ukraine defend itself, to help Ukraine win its independence, and to prevent Russia from continuing to wage this war."

Although this is a verbal statement, it is potent. Yes, this may be a statement by a president entering the election campaign. Still, he says that the US will support Ukraine and that he is not making decisions based on electoral calculations.

So I am still determining what they will put in Putin's folder. Either he will be given press clippings or quotes from Biden's statement.

Even though NATO did not extend Ukraine a formal invitation, we received an unprecedented document - a joint statement by the G7 in Vilnius at the NATO summit.

Let's just compare the texts.

The Budapest Memorandum simply enshrined the principles: not to attack, not to use economic blackmail, to respect territorial integrity, and perhaps to hold some consultations in the event of a crisis. That is a rather vague general document.

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If we look at the G7 statement, it is very clear. It immediately includes the phrase: "In the event of a future armed attack by Russia, we intend to immediately hold consultations with Ukraine to determine the appropriate next steps." That is, each of the G7 countries is starting bilateral consultations on concluding international agreements on long-term, permanent, and economic support for Ukraine.

I emphasize once again: this is a unique document. The G7 has never signed such a document on the security of a single country. This is an outstanding achievement.

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We had a controversial date - December 5, 1994, when the Budapest Memorandum was signed. July 12, 2023, is a new stage, and our government and diplomacy have a lot of hard work ahead of them.

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