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NBA DFS: How to attack Friday night's slate

ariel epstein
Betting analyst
·3 min read

There are 11 games on the NBA slate Friday, which gives daily fantasy a ton of options. Between back-to-backs pouring over from Thursday to crazy season-long trends, there are three players that could make a huge difference in your DFS tournaments tonight.

$38 Charlotte Hornets PG LaMelo Ball

The Charlotte Hornets are getting the Los Angeles Lakers on the second leg of a road back-to-back. Los Angeles has had five back-to-backs this year, allowing 26.8 points per game to point guards in those spots. There was one game where Oklahoma City’s point guard Shai Gilgeous Alexander put up 11 points; however, Terrance Mann came off the bench for OKC and scored 19. If you add Mann into the averages instead of Gilgeous-Alexander, point guards are averaging 28.4 PPG against the Lakers on the second leg of a back-to-back. It also helps that Ball puts up 21.2 PPG, 7.9 rebounds and 8.4 assists against bottom 10 defenses. The Lakers are bottom 10 in points, rebounds and assists allowed to opponents. When up against a bottom-10 defense against assists, Ball’s assists average goes up to 11.2 per game. With the potential for 25+ points and a double-double, Ball is worth the $38 Friday night.

LaMelo Ball #2 of the Charlotte Hornets reacts after being called for a technical foul during a game against the Atlanta Hawks on Jan. 23. (Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)

$31 Houston Rockets C Christian Wood

The Houston Rockets are hosting the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday night. With Portland ranking bottom 10 in points allowed, naturally you look to the Rockets' leading scorer, Christian Wood. The Blazers have played really poorly against centers recently. In the last 10 games against Portland, here are the numbers for some centers and big men.

Dallas Mavericks C Kristaps Porzingis: 22 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist
Minnesota Timberwolves C Karl Anthony Towns: 17 points, 17 rebounds, 2 assists
Toronto Raptors PF Pascal Siakam: 28 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists
Miami Heat C Bam Adebayo: 20 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists
Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic: 20 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists
Brooklyn Nets PF Kevin Durant: 28 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists
Sacramento Kings C Alex LenL 16 points, 10 rebounds, 0 assists

With centers playing well against Portland in addition to Wood averaging 19.9 PPG versus bottom-10 defenses, I’m playing the Rockets’ center tonight.

$13 Atlanta Hawks SG Bogdan Bogdanovic

This trend against the Boston Celtics has been one of my favorites all year. The Celtics have been bottom 10 all season in points allowed to guards. When you look game by game, it’s mostly to shooting guards. I’m not including the last Kings vs. Celtics game in my metric because the Kings just didn’t feel like showing up. Let’s start the trend prior to that disaster. In the 10 games before the Kings matchup, shooting guards were averaging 20.9 PPG against Boston. There have been six matchups between Bogdanovic and a bottom-10 defense versus guards. He averaged 16.2 PPG in those spots. For a Hawks team that’s heating up plus the Celtics trend of struggles against shooting guards, Bogdanovic makes for a great value play.