NBA draft lottery history: How the Houston Rockets have fared

As the 2020-21 NBA regular season winds down, the biggest prize for the Houston Rockets likely involves maximizing their draft odds.

With 14 games left, the Rockets (15-43) are effectively a lock to have their NBA-leading streak of eight consecutive playoff berths come to an end. That means that for the first time since 2012, the Rockets will be among teams anxiously awaiting the results of the 2021 draft lottery.

For Houston, the stakes are higher than most teams. Due to the Chris Paul-Russell Westbrook trade in July 2019, the Rockets will lose their first-round draft pick to Oklahoma City unless it is in the draft’s top four.

The good news for the Rockets is that as of now, they’re easily among the NBA’s three worst teams by record. If they finish in the bottom three, they would maximize their odds at a top-four pick. The bad news for Houston is that because of the NBA’s revised lottery weighting system — designed to discourage teams from intentionally losing games — the chances of staying in the draft’s top four are only 52.1%, at best.

Effectively, that makes it a virtual coin flip for whether Houston will get a chance to draft a top prospect such as Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, or Jalen Suggs. If Houston doesn’t finish in the top four, Oklahoma City has the right to swap Miami’s draft pick for the Houston one. As of Tuesday, Miami was projected to finish at No. 16, per Tankathon.

With the high stakes of the June 22 draft lottery in mind, here’s a look back at Houston’s previous experiences with the NBA lottery and how the Rockets have fared, relative to the percentage odds at the time. The draft lottery began in 1985, so we are reviewing outcomes from the nine non-playoff seasons completed by the Rockets over that span.

In all, the Rockets have stayed “true to seed” eight times and moved up once. They have never fallen. That’s a trend that Houston would love to continue into 2021, since their final record will almost certainly be within the range (top four) that would have the Rockets retaining their pick.

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1991-92 season (42-40)

AP Photo/Don Ryan

Projected draft spot (based on record): No. 11 Odds of moving up: 1.8% Odds of moving down: 0.0% (best record among non-playoff teams) Odds of staying put: 98.2% Outcome: Stayed at No. 11, drafted Robert Horry

1999-00 season (34-48)

AP Photo/Don Ryan

Projected draft spot (based on record): No. 9 Odds of moving up: 6.1% for a top three pick Odds of moving down: 12.6% Odds of staying put: 81.3% Outcome: Stayed at No. 9 and drafted Joel Pryzbilla, who was traded to Milwaukee for Jason Collier (No. 15) and a future draft pick

2000-01 season (45-37)

Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Projected draft spot (based on record): No. 13 Odds of moving up: 1.8% for a top three pick Odds of moving down: 0.0% (best record among non-playoff teams) Odds of staying put: 98.2% Outcome: Stayed at No. 13 and drafted Richard Jefferson, who was traded as part of a package of rookies for Eddie Griffin (No. 7 overall)

2001-02 season (28-54)

AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee, File

Projected draft spot (based on record): No. 5 Odds of moving up: 29.4% for a top three pick Odds of moving down: 44.6% Odds of staying put: 26.0% Outcome: Jumped to No. 1 (only an 8.9% chance) and selected Yao Ming This season showed how much one extra loss can mean. Houston finished one game worse than No. 6 Cleveland (29-53), and that small boost to their lottery odds meant being able to draft a Hall of Famer.

2002-03 season (43-39)

AP Photo/Elise Amendola

Projected draft spot (based on record): No. 13 Odds of moving up: 1.8% for a top three pick Odds of moving down: 0.0% (best record among non-playoff teams) Odds of staying put: 98.2% Outcome: Stayed at No. 13, lost pick to Memphis as part of the Steve Francis trade (The Grizzlies selected Marcus Banks and traded him to Boston)

2005-06 season (34-48)

AP Photo/Jason DeCrow

Projected draft spot (based on record): No. 8 Odds of moving up: 10.0% for a top three pick Odds of moving down: 17.6% Odds of staying put: 72.4% Outcome: Stayed at No. 8, drafted Rudy Gay, who was traded to Memphis for Shane Battier Houston finished one game ahead of Minnesota (33-49), which was able to draft a perennial All-Star in Brandon Roy at No. 6 overall. (However, Roy was then traded by the Timberwolves to Portland.) In many ways, it was the opposite of the 2002 scenario, in that the Rockets felt the pain from winning one too many games.

2009-10 season (42-40)

AP Photo/Pat Sullivan

Projected draft spot based on record: No. 14 Odds of moving up: 1.8% Odds of moving down: 0.0% (best record among non-playoff teams) Odds of staying put: 98.2% Outcome: Stayed at No. 14, drafted Patrick Patterson

2010-11 season (43-39)

AP Photo/Pat Sullivan

Projected draft spot based on record: No. 14 Odds of moving up: 1.8% Odds of moving down: 0.0% (best record among non-playoff teams) Odds of staying put: 98.2% Outcome: Stayed at No. 14, drafted Marcus Morris

2011-12 season (34-32)

AP Photo/Julio Cortez

Projected draft spot based on record: No. 14 Odds of moving up: 1.8% Odds of moving down: 0.0% (best record among non-playoff teams) Odds of staying put: 98.2% Outcome: Stayed at No. 14, then traded up to No. 12 to draft Jeremy Lamb. Milwaukee took John Henson with Houston's original pick.