NBA GMs don't think Memphis Grizzlies can match last season. Here's why they could be wrong | Giannotto

They don’t think the Memphis Grizzlies will be as good this season as they were last season.

Once you sift through all the praise and perceived slights, that’s what the NBA's general managers are telling you right now. You should thank them.

The NBA’s annual GM survey pegged Memphis as the No. 5 team in the West, behind the Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors, Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets. Only 3% of the responding GMs believe Memphis can be the No. 2 seed again. Only 6% of the responding GMs had Memphis finishing within the top four.

They voted Ja Morant the fastest and most athletic player in the NBA but not one of the best point guards. They voted the Grizzlies the second-most fun to watch team in the NBA, but voted Cleveland to have the most promising young core. They hardly mentioned the Grizzlies; just enough for them to feel disrespected.

None of it is particularly surprising or nonsensical. Well, except maybe the best point guard part.

The Clippers have Kawhi Leonard back, Golden State is defending champion, Phoenix had the NBA’s best record last season and Denver will have a healthy Jamal Murray again. Cleveland traded for Donovan Mitchell.

Memphis, meanwhile, won’t have Jaren Jackson Jr. to start the season, and it replaced De’Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson this offseason with five rookies and a 35-year-old who won’t be able to play until after the all-star break (Danny Green).

But there’s one key distinction often overlooked when discussing the Grizzlies' immediate prospects, and it perhaps helps inform the strategy taken by the front office in recent months.

These Grizzlies, in their fullest form, haven’t really played all that much together. While these other teams are getting stars back, or made splashy moves, Memphis should get back some starting lineup continuity.

It was a stat mentioned last year at times, but it bears repeating a couple weeks out from the start of this season.

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The starting lineup most would project Memphis to use when completely healthy – Morant, Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, Jackson and Steven Adams – played just 11 games and 109 minutes together during the 2021-22 regular season. They had the best NET rating of any five-man lineup the Grizzlies used for greater than 40 minutes.

So when Memphis played its ideal starting five, it was even better than what its record showed last year. What happens if that entire starting five plays more than 13% percent of the season?

The answer can’t be known until Jackson returns from the foot injury he suffered in an offseason workout. Whether that’s this month, next month, or even December or January is unknown, although Jackson suggested during the team’s media day he planned on being back on the shorter end of that time frame.

“We haven’t had a big chance to play together, but you know, we’re all close, we’re all tight. We believe in everybody on this team. Regardless who’s in, who’s out, we’re going to make the most of it,” Bane said this week. “I’m definitely looking forward to getting healthy and playing alongside all those guys, but in the meantime guys will be ready and they’ll step up, I’m sure.”

Last year, it was alternating injuries to Morant and Brooks that largely kept Memphis from playing with its complete starting lineup for much of the season. How the pecking order sorts out with everyone on the court for longer stretches bears watching upon Jackson’s return, particularly as it pertains to Brooks and his well-documented shot selection issues.

But it stands to reason that the Grizzlies can out-perform expectations once more simply by being out on the court together more. The pieces should fit together. They did last year, just with a limited sample size.

So maybe the NBA's GMs just didn't see it.

You can reach Commercial Appeal columnist Mark Giannotto via email at mgiannotto@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter: @mgiannotto

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Why NBA GMs are wrong to think Memphis Grizzlies can't match last year