NBC to look at fast-growing Dane County as predictor of 2024 presidential election

Hope Karnopp, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
·2 min read
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Dane County is increasingly important in determining election outcomes in Wisconsin, so much so that NBC is highlighting it as one of seven counties where voters will carry a lot of weight in deciding who wins the 2024 presidential election.

The southern Wisconsin county, which includes the University of Wisconsin-Madison, is home to a "core Democratic base" of college-educated voters, NBC senior political correspondent Steve Kornacki said Sunday on "Meet the Press."

"Activation, motivation, interest in elections is absolutely sky-high with this demographic," he said.

NBC embeds reporters in each of the counties to tap into how voters are feeling about the presidential race. A team of four journalists is assigned to Dane County and Kent County, Michigan, which includes Grand Rapids.

The other five counties are in the battlegrounds of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania — though Kornacki called Wisconsin "the swingiest of swing states."

NBC previously turned to Milwaukee County in 2020 as a predictor of Democratic turnout, interviewing Black leaders in Milwaukee about their support for then-candidate Joe Biden and the narrowing of a diverse primary field.

"It used to be that Milwaukee was where Democrats looked in Wisconsin for their big margins. Now they look as much, if not more, at Dane County," Kornacki said. "Every election, Democrats seem to get bigger and bigger margins out of Dane County."

More: Where Joe Biden won Wisconsin: Dane County and the Milwaukee County suburbs

More: In slow-growing Wisconsin, fast-growing Dane County packs a bigger and bigger political punch

In 2020, the last presidential year, turnout in Milwaukee County was about the same as in 2016, and turnout was down in wards where at least 50% of voters are Black.

A woman encourages voter registration during the Dane County Farmer’s Market on Saturday, Aug. 26, 2023, on the Capitol Square in Madison.
A woman encourages voter registration during the Dane County Farmer’s Market on Saturday, Aug. 26, 2023, on the Capitol Square in Madison.

Compare that to Dane, the fastest-growing county in the state, where voters cast 35,000 more ballots than they did in 2016. Madison alone contributed 16,000 more ballots for Democrats.

For context, Biden won Wisconsin by about 21,000 votes — showing the challenge for Republicans in Wisconsin to counter the strength of Democratic strongholds like Milwaukee and Dane County.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: NBC turns from Milwaukee to Dane County as predictor of 2024 election