NC abortion restrictions, other issues hang on one Democrat? GOP district redraw likely

Abortion thought at one point to have faded from voters' minds, proved instead on election night to be a potent mobilizer around the country, including in Asheville and Buncombe County were those at the polls named restrictions on the procedure as motivation in picking their candidates.

Alysha Harris, 39, a supporter of a woman's right to choose abortion who lives in West Asheville, equated Republican dominance as curtailing access.

“I just felt like, I had to do it. I had to get out here and try to make sure that the Republicans don’t take over,” Harris said.

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“Normally I would go into this and look at all the candidates on both sides and see who I agree with more, but it’s become so divided at this point, it’s hard to do that anymore.”

Chris Dunham, 73, of Montford, was also motivated by abortion restrictions, but in the opposite way.

"That's one thing that's brought this country down," he said of abortion rights. Dunham said people should "vote the Republicans into office and get the Democrats out as soon as possible."

In their election night gains North Carolina Republicans came up one seat short of being able to override Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper's veto − but that still leaves the door open for major legislative changes, a General Assembly expert told the Citizen Times Nov. 9.

Those actions by the newly strengthened GOP ranks in the state House and Senate could include new abortion restrictions, passed if any Democrat is absent, as well as a redraw of congressional and General Assembly districts to expand anticipated majorities in the U.S. House and state legislature, said Eric Heberlig, UNC Charlotte political science professor.

"The close margins means that Republicans will have an incentive to wait until a Democrat is sick or out of town before bringing veto override votes to the floor. So there will be some gamesmanship," Heberlig said, adding "And Democrats will have to have perfect attendance."

Redistricting changes cannot by law be vetoed by the governor. The main barrier has been the courts, but an election night flip in the N.C. Supreme Court from Democrat to Republican changes the calculus.

That could lead to a veto-proof majority in the next election with major legislative repercussions on a range of issues, from taxation to school spending.

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In state House races for districts covering parts of Buncombe County, all three winners were Democrats ― Eric Ager in the 114th District covering the east of the county including East Asheville; Lindsey Prather in the 115th in the county's southwest and South and parts of West Asheville; and Caleb Rudow, the only House incumbent, in the 116th including north and west Buncombe and parts of West Asheville.

In the upper house races, incumbents Democrat Julie Mayfield and Republican Warren Daniel split the two seats that represent Buncombe. Mayfield won the 49th District composed of Asheville and west Buncombe, while Daniel took the 46th covering east Buncombe as well as McDowell and Burke counties.

Statewide all 50 state Senate seats and 120 state House seats were up for election this year. A supermajority is three-fifths of each body. Republicans, who already hold a majority, appeared to have won 30 Senate seats, enough for a supermajority there. In the House, the latest count was 71 seats, just one shy of three-fifths.

General Assembly members make $13,951 a year with a $104 daily per diem. For additional expenses, legislators receive $559 a month.

Daniel, who has served six terms in the Senate, starting in 2011 has supported tax and regulation cuts for businesses, a voter ID law, gun rights, and anti-abortion policies.

Responding to the Citizen Times Nov. 10, he declined to answer questions about abortion or redistricting. He said priorities are yet to be hammered out in meetings with elected party members.

"That said, this week’s election results were a clear indication that the Republican platform of lower taxes, expanded parental choice, job creation, and quality education is one that resonates with North Carolinians," Daniel said. "I look forward to working with my colleagues in the Senate and House to build on North Carolina’s reputation as one of the best states in the nation."

Mayfield, finishing her first term after being elected in 2020, was central to passing a clean energy solutions bi-partisan compromise bill and has introduced bills to reduce the General Assembly's power over local governments such as Asheville City Council of which she was a member.

Because of different views on abortion among Republicans, Mayfield said she did not think North Carolina would see a strict ban, though the majority legislators are feeling pressure to enact some kind of measure reducing access.

"I think this will be an interesting battle within the Republican party and between the House and Senate, whose leaders have articulated very different visions for the future of abortion in N.C.," she said. "Their base will demand some action, but there is a variety of views within their caucus."

About new districts, Mayfield said because the congressional map was imposed by a court, it was known those lines would be redrawn. She was unaware of how the non-court imposed General Assembly maps would be redrawn, "but I would not put it past the Republican leadership to figure out a way to do that too given the changes to the N.C. Supreme Court.  If they can gerrymander the maps without interference from the courts, they will secure power for decades to come."

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Moving abortion legislation forward could happen either by waiting for a Democrat's absence − or pulling one over to their side, Heberlig said.

"Republicans will put a lot of effort into finding some restrictions that at least one Democrat is willing to vote for," the the political science professor said.

Redistricting, is something the N.C. and federal Constitution says must happen every decade following the census so that members of Congress and the General Assembly represent roughly the same number of people. But court battles over lines drawn to advantage one party over another − a process known as gerrymandering − have led to new maps appearing in multiple years.

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N.C. Republicans have now brought a case to the U.S. Supreme Court challenging the ability of judges to stop gerrymanders. But with the Republican takeover of the state Supreme Court, they will certainly move forward with new congressional maps and likely General Assembly maps, Heberlig said.

"The governor cannot veto these.  And a GOP-majority court is unlikely to overturn them as the current N.C. Supreme Court has done, so the Republicans may get their vote-proof majority in 2024 by drawing more Republican-friendly House districts."

Joel Burgess has lived in WNC for more than 20 years, covering politics, government, and other news. He's written award-winning stories on topics ranging from gerrymandering to police use of force. Got a tip? Contact Burgess at jburgess@citizentimes.com, 828-713-1095, or on Twitter @AVLreporter. Please help support this type of journalism with a subscription to the Citizen Times.

This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: N.C. abortion restrictions, other issues hang on one Democrat?