NC’s changing demographics could be bad news for Republicans in November

The COVID-19 pandemic and the George Floyd protests have shifted the dynamics of the 2020 election and may now combine with demographic changes to push North Carolina from purple to blue in November.

The state’s changing electorate is documented in a report by Jessica Stanford of Carolina Demography, part of the Carolina Population Center at UNC-Chapel Hill. The report, “NC Demographic, Workforce and Voter Registration Trends,” is not good news for North Carolina Republicans.

The report shows that most of the state’s growth is in demographic groups that tend to vote Democratic: urban residents, minorities and newcomers with college degrees. And now those groups are intensely motivated to vote after four years of President Trump’s stirring racial resentments, bungling the pandemic response and calling for the military to put down protests.

Wayne Goodwin, the state Democratic Party chairman and a candidate to reclaim his former office of state insurance commissioner, said this fall will see a surge in Democratic voters. “They truly believe this is the most important election of their life,” he said. “And it is. It’s not just a slogan.”

The GOP’s dominance in North Carolina since the 2010 election was founded on solid support among white voters in rural areas and outlying suburbs. But that Republican foundation is eroding as an overall share of the electorate. The state’s population growth is increasingly centered in urban areas, the Hispanic population is rising – especially the share of Hispanics eligible to vote – and almost all of the state’s population increase is coming from people moving into the state, many of them from blue Northeastern states.

From 2020 to 2030, people moving into North Carolina will account for 85 percent of the state’s growth, the report says, and the great majority of the new arrivals will live in urban areas.

Meanwhile, the state’s population is growing more diverse. Between 2013 and 2018, the state’s Hispanic population increased by 22 percent, those who describe themselves as multi-racial grew by 30 percent and the number of Asians rose by 44 percent. The state’s white population grew by 4 percent.

Rebecca Triplett, the director of Carolina Demography, said the demographic changes may not necessarily translate into shifts in election outcomes. She noted that North Carolina’s rural population is still larger than that of any other state except for Texas and rural voters tend to have a higher turnout.

The Republican turnout advantage may not be there this November, with younger urban and minority voters spurred by the Floyd protests and fierce opposition to President Trump. However, the pandemic’s effect remains a wild card. It could generate a backlash against the president’s handling of it, but it could also create obstacles to voting that will depress turnout.

Goodwin thinks November’s results will bring a major shift in the state’s politics since Trump carried the state and Republicans kept control of the state legislature. More young people are eager to vote, he said, and much of the Republican advantages through gerrymandering have been erased by the courts.

“What we were seeing in 2016 was, in my opinion, the last gasp of Republican majorities,” he said.

Of course, Democrats made a similarly confident claim against Trump in 2016. But this time, national events and population trends are aligning in their favor.

Barnett: 919-829-4512, nbarnett@ newsobserver.com