Will NC “inevitably” see runoffs after the Mar. 5. primary?
RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) – The primary campaign season could extend into May this year with some races having drawn so many candidates that political experts describe a runoff as “inevitable.”
For a candidate to win the primary outright on Mar. 5, they must win at least 30 percent plus one vote. If no candidate reaches that threshold, the second-place finisher has the ability to request a runoff that would occur on May 14.
“Runoffs were made for elections like this one,” said Chris Cooper, a politics professor at Western Carolina University.
Cooper noted Republicans are much more likely to see runoff elections this year than Democrats, as several GOP races feature crowded fields with no clear frontrunner.
Republicans in the General Assembly recently redrew the state’s Congressional districts, leading to several open seats that heavily favor the GOP and are likely to be decided by who wins the primary.
Among the races he’s watching is the lieutenant governor’s race, which has drawn 11 Republican candidates compared to three Democrats.
The 13th Congressional District in the central part of the state has 14 Republican candidates running. The 6th district in the Triad and the 8th district east of Charlotte both have six Republican candidates in the race.
“For good or bad, I think we’re all used to right now this time being election. We’re hoping we’re gonna get a break until November. And, I think these runoffs are gonna be a rude awakening,” said Cooper. “And, I would expect to see big money spent on get-out-the-vote efforts. It’s not gonna be much about persuasion. It’s gonna be about mobilization of people you already know are on your side.”
The last statewide runoff election was in 2012. That year, Republicans had runoffs for lieutenant governor, insurance commissioner, secretary of state and superintendent of public instruction. Democrats had a runoff for labor commissioner.
Cooper noted turnout would likely be down significantly from the Mar. 5 primary. In 2012, the runoff occurred in July and drew just over 200,000 voters, state election data shows.
Sometimes second-place candidates choose not to proceed with a runoff. That happened in 2020 in the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor. Former state Rep. Yvonne Lewis Holley received the most votes but fell short of 30 percent. Former state Sen. Terry van Duyn, who finished second, declined to request a runoff.
Patrick Gannon, a spokesperson for the N.C. State Board of Elections, said the last time his agency surveyed counties about the cost of a statewide election, it was about $17 million.
“However, a second primary wouldn’t be as much because there will not be as many ballot styles, as many workers, or as many early voting sites. Not sure that we can be more precise than that on cost,” Gannon said.
North Carolina allows unaffiliated voters to choose which party’s primary they want to participate in. However, they must stick with that party when it comes time for a runoff.
David Capen, a political consultant, recently surveyed Republican voters about the lieutenant governor’s race and found no candidates reaching the 30 percent threshold.
While his survey showed Hal Weatherman with 21 percent of the vote, Capen noted several candidates were all within the margin of error.
“That race is inevitably going to go into a runoff,” said Capen. “Especially in these crowded fields, this is where it comes and helps to play nice during the first primary election so that you can mobilize voters who are maybe supporting other candidates, that those candidates are going to want to come and endorse you.”
While former President Donald Trump has endorsed in some primary races in North Carolina, there are some competitive races where he has not weighed in, including in the 13th Congressional District.
Cooper said, “If he’s gonna get in, he needs to do it soon. Over 200,000 people have already cast their ballot in the North Carolina primary. We have early voting going on while we’re talking right now. So, if he wants to get in and influence the outcome of the election, time’s a-wastin’.”
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