NC vaccine rates drop by more than half. Will mask mandates linger well into summer?

COVID-19 vaccine doses administered in North Carolina have gone down by over half over the last three weeks, stalling the possibility of the indoor mask mandate being lifted by June.

Gov. Roy Cooper has said that two-thirds of adults in the state would need to be at least partially vaccinated for the indoor mask mandate to be lifted.

As of Tuesday, just under 50% of adults across the state are at least partially vaccinated.

In the week of April 5, over 680,000 people in North Carolina received a dose of the vaccine, with over 336,000 of those being first doses of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, both of which require two doses to be effective against the virus.

This past week, administered doses were under 337,500, with just 92,000 of those being first doses, according to the state Department of Health and Human Services.

To get to two-thirds of the adult population with at least one dose, 1.3 million more adults in the state would have to get the first dose, a figure the state could reach in a month if vaccine numbers return to the early April level and stay there.

DHHS Secretary Dr. Mandy Cohen told The N&O in an interview Tuesday that the state has the supply to reach two-thirds of all adults by June but unvaccinated people have to be willing to take the vaccine.

“It’s really up to North Carolina about when we reach that,” Cohen said. “I’m hoping we can reach it as soon into the summer as possible, but it may take longer than that.”

In a press conference last week, Cooper announced the easing of some restrictions, including dropping the mask mandate outdoors, following guidance from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

He said he expects to lift nearly all pandemic restrictions by June 1 if the rate of new cases, hospitalizations and the percentage of tests returning positive, among other metrics, continue on a downward trajectory.

The metrics plateaued in late April but have started to slightly decrease over the past few days, according to DHHS data.

Cohen said state officials anticipate that the indoor mask mandate will remain in place going into June, given the current vaccination rates.

“We’re shifting from a place where folks were seeking out vaccine,” Cohen said. “Now we have to do more work to make sure folks know vaccine is here. It’s available. It’s free. It’s safe and effective.”

NC vaccine hesitancy

According to a poll from Elon University in early April, one in five North Carolinians do not plan to get the vaccine, The N&O reported.

Most experts say that to achieve herd immunity, when enough people are immune to make spread unlikely, 70% to 90% would need to be vaccinated, according to a report from The New York Times.

That could make vaccine hesitancy a barrier to herd immunity in North Carolina.

Cohen, though, said herd immunity isn’t a knowable figure. She said the focus right now is to get as many people as possible vaccinated.

“We know these vaccines are safe and effective. They protect not just the individual,” Cohen said. “We want to make sure that you are protecting yourself with the vaccine, but the more people who get vaccinated, the less places this virus can go to spread.”

West Virginia is offering $100 to those ages 16 to 35 that get vaccinated, according to a report from CBS News.

Cohen said that North Carolina is considering incentive programs like this, specifically in partnerships with private businesses.

“We’re talking to a number of folks,” Cohen said. “Whatever it takes to get folks vaccinated and for us to turn the corner on this pandemic and put it in our rearview mirror, we’re willing to look at.”