NCAA Tournament Best Bets: Upset picks, fun props and future wagers for March Madness

The NCAA Tournament is arguably the best time of year for sports betting.

With first round games getting underway on Thursday, many Sunflower State residents are about to experience the thrill of not only watching games all day long but also winning or losing money on them.

With so many betting options this week, Kansas State beat writer Kellis Robinett is here to share his favorite wagers ahead of March Madness. His picks went 44-35-1 (a profitable 55%) during college football season. Now it’s time to see what he can do with basketball.

Best Bets

No. 9 West Virginia (-2.5) vs. No. 8 Maryland: Force Maryland to play away from home and the Terrapins simply aren’t very good. The only team they have beaten in a neutral or road environment since November is Minnesota (twice). Maryland is 2-12 in its past 14 games that weren’t played in College Park. If the Mountaineers are truly anywhere as good as college basketball statisticians like Ken Pomeroy and Bart Torvik think they are, they should absolutely win this game by more than one possession. Pick: West Virginia.

No. 12 Drake (+2.5) vs. No. 5 Miami: Don’t be surprised if Drake pulls off a classic No. 12 seed upset against Miami. The Hurricanes have been a profitable team to bet on this season, going 18-14 against the spread. But I think they are vulnerable in the first round against an opponent that is well coached and features Tucker DeVries surrounded by a bunch of seniors. If Miami forward Norchad Omier is unable to play with an injury it wouldn’t surprise me if the Bulldogs close as favorites here. Pick: Drake.

No. 16 Northern Kentucky (+19.5) vs. No. 1 Houston: It’s always a little scary to lay this many points, but the Cougars are a good team to back as a big favorite. They are 10-5 against the spread as 20-point favorites this season. Houston, which ranks fourth nationally in offensive rebounds, should have its way against a Northern Kentucky team that ranks 334th nationally in defensive rebounds, with or without Marcus Sasser. Pick: Houston.

No. 10 Penn State (+2.5) vs. No. 7 Texas A&M: The Aggies were criminally under-seeded in this tournament. Buzz Williams led Texas A&M to 26 victories and a 15-3 record in the SEC with a balanced team that ranks inside the top 30 in both offense and defense. As long as the Aggies grab offensive rebounds and get to the foul line, which they have done all season, they should take care of business against a Penn State team that went 10-10 in the Big Ten. Pick: Texas A&M.

No. 13 Furman (+5.5) vs. No. 4 Virginia: You probably know that Virginia has one of the best defenses in the entire country. Did you also realize that Furman has one of the best offenses in the nation? The Paladins (great mascot) rank first nationally in two-point shooting at 59.1%. They also shoot 34.4% from three-point range and rarely turn the ball over. This game figures to feature a slow pace and lots of half-court offense. It will be hard for Virginia to pull away for a comfortable win. The Cavaliers are on upset alert. Pick: Furman.

Other games worth considering

No. 9 Auburn (-1) vs. No. 8 Iowa: The wrong team seems favored here, even though the game is in Alabama.

No. 11 North Carolina State (+5.5) vs. No. 6 Creighton: Bad matchup for NC State. The Bluejays could win by double digits.

No. 10 Utah State (-2) vs. No. 7 Missouri: I think the Aggies are getting a little too much love.

No. 12 VCU (+5) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s: Give me the points in a slow, defensive battle.

No. 12 Oral Roberts (+6.5) vs. No. 5 Duke: You know you want to bet against the Blue Devils.

Fun ways to back to the Big 12

Just about everyone agrees that the Big 12 was the strongest conference in all of college basketball this season. Why not make a few bets that back that assertion?

Draft Kings has set the over/under win total for the league at 11 1/2 in the NCAA Tournament. The over has good odds at +115.

With seven teams in the field and all seven of them favored in the first round, it wouldn’t take all that much for the Big 12 to reach the over. Quick reminder: A Big 12 team has advanced to the championship game in three straight tournaments.

BetMGM is also offering a bet on which conference will advance the most teams to the Sweet 16. You can get the Big 12 for even money on that one.

Quick side note: I also like the Big East going over it’s win total of 7 1/2.

Bet this 80-to-1 long shot to win it all

If you’re looking for a long shot to back in the futures market, might I suggest throwing a couple dollars at San Diego State?

The No. 5 seed Aztecs are getting 80-to-1 odds at the moment (BetMGM) and they have several qualities that suggest they have a shot at making a Cinderella run through the NCAA Tournament.

Typically, the team that wins this event has lots of balance on both offense and defense, allowing it to win in a variety of different ways. San Diego State ranks 40th nationally in offense and 5th nationally in defense.

It is also limiting opponents to 29.2% shooting from three-point range this season. That could be a game-changer should San Diego State meet Alabama in the Sweet 16.

Placing even $1 on the Aztecs would give you an underdog to root for throughout the tournament. Betting a little more would give you some intriguing opportunities to hedge if San Diego State ends up in the Final Four.

Fade this No. 1 seed

I don’t think Purdue will make it very far in this bracket.

Even as a No. 1 seed, I don’t like its chances of advancing to the Sweet 16 with Florida Atlantic or Memphis waiting for the Boilermakers in the second round.

Fortunately, there is a bet out there that allows me to fade Purdue regardless of who it plays in the Round of 32. At Draft Kings, you can get Purdue as the first No. 1 seed to be eliminated at +240. At FanDuel, you can get Purdue to miss the Sweet 16 at +152.

Or you can just wait until later in the week and bet on Florida Atlantic or Memphis to upset Purdue. It’s good to have options.

Best pick for the Final Four

Marquette is a good team to back in the East Region.

The Golden Eagles are +425 to reach the Final Four at Draft Kings, which means you can more than quadruple your money if they win four games in March Madness.

I like their path. No. 2 Marquette is a big favorite over Vermont. It will also be favored over Michigan State or USC. I don’t see that changing in the Sweet 16 against Kansas State, Kentucky, Montana State or Providence. And I already said I think Purdue is going down early.

Shaka Smart has been to a Final Four before and he has this team rolling. The Golden Eagles have won nine straight games and are coming off a Big East Tournament championship.

Sunflower Showdown rivalry bet

If you’re the type of person who likes to cheer against Kansas or K-State you’re going to like this bet.

Draft Kings is letting bettors place money on which team will advance further in the NCAA Tournament. The Jayhawks (-300) are favored to have more success than the Wildcats (+235). But the Jayhawks ended up in a stronger region than the Wildcats.

If nothing else, it’s a fun rivalry bet.