NCAA Tournament committee’s projections for top 16 overall seeds don’t include Kentucky

Cameron Drummond
·5 min read
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About one month prior to Selection Sunday, the projected top 16 overall seeds for the 2024 NCAA Tournament have been revealed.

Saturday afternoon on CBS — just a few hours before the Kentucky basketball team scored an impressive road win over Auburn — the NCAA Tournament selection committee revealed the in-season top 16 overall seeds for the Big Dance.

The following teams were included in the reveal, with the following overall seeds and region assignments:

(The seeds listed are each team’s projected seed for the NCAA Tournament, which means that 1-4 equals a No. 1 seed in a region, 5-8 equals a No. 2 seed, 9-12 equals a No. 3 seed and 13-16 equals a No. 16 seed).

Midwest Region (Detroit):

1. Purdue.

6. Tennessee.

10. Baylor.

14. San Diego State.

East Region (Boston):

2. UConn.

5. North Carolina.

11. Iowa State.

16. Wisconsin.

South Region (Dallas):

3. Houston.

7. Marquette.

9. Alabama.

15. Illinois.

West Region (Los Angeles):

4. Arizona.

8. Kansas.

12. Duke.

13. Auburn.

Kentucky, obviously, is missing from this list.

The Wildcats are 2-2 against teams that cracked the top 16 overall seeds of the in-season projection: UK has wins over North Carolina and Auburn and losses to Kansas and Tennessee.

Of Kentucky’s six remaining regular season games, two will be against SEC teams (Alabama and Tennessee) projected to be top 16 overall seeds.

Prior to Saturday’s win over Auburn, Kentucky was projected as a No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament, per Bracket Matrix. This means UK was projected to be between a No. 25 and No. 28 overall seed in March Madness.

The final, official selections for the NCAA Tournament will be announced Sunday, March 17.

Kentucky basketball enters the final seven games of the regular season as a projected No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Silas Walker/swalker@herald-leader.com
Kentucky basketball enters the final seven games of the regular season as a projected No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Silas Walker/swalker@herald-leader.com

What does being a projected top 16 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament mean?

Teams that are projected to be a top 16 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament by the selection committee have had stellar regular seasons up to this point.

All of the teams included in Saturday’s projection have stacked up quality wins and (largely) avoided bad losses.

Those are two things Kentucky can’t lay claim to this season: UK owns a 3-5 record in Quad 1 games (per the NCAA NET rankings), and the Wildcats also have a Quad 3 home loss stemming from December’s shocking defeat to UNC Wilmington.

Saturday’s projection also reflected the conferences that are considered the best in college basketball this season.

The Big 12, which is ranked by KenPom as the clear best conference in the country, has four teams projected to be top 16 overall NCAA Tournament seeds.

The SEC has three teams included in the projection, but none are higher than a 2 seed.

Last season, UConn and head coach Dan Hurley were left out of the in-season projection of the top 16 overall seeds for the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies went on to win the national championship. Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports
Last season, UConn and head coach Dan Hurley were left out of the in-season projection of the top 16 overall seeds for the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies went on to win the national championship. Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports

How much movement will occur with the projected top 16 overall seeds?

There have been instances of the top 16 overall seeds shifting significantly between the in-season reveal and Selection Sunday.

For example, in 2018 the Oklahoma Sooners went from a projected No. 4 seed to an actual No. 10 seed after losing 10 of their final 14 games ahead of the tournament.

In 2019, Louisville was among the teams that dropped: The Cardinals went from a projected No. 4 seed to an actual No. 7 seed.

But there’s also been examples of continuity between the in-season reveal and what the actual NCAA Tournament bracket produced: In 2022, 15 of the 16 teams in the reveal remained a top 16 overall seed in the actual bracket.

How likely is it that UK basketball will be a top 16 overall seed?

How often have teams played their way into a top 16 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, despite being left out of the in-season reveal?

It’s happened, but it’s not common.

After five teams accomplished this in both 2019 and 2021, only one school has done so in 2022 (Arkansas) and 2023 (UConn, which won the national title).

A total of 16 teams have played their way into being a top 16 overall seed since the in-season reveal began in 2017, and 11 of those schools slotted in as a No. 4 seed in the actual bracket.

Kentucky will have some chances down the stretch of the regular season — specifically with games against Alabama and at Tennessee — to make its case for a top 16 overall NCAA Tournament seed.

The teams that have played their way into a top 16 overall seed on Selection Sunday have usually done well in March Madness. Of the 16 teams that have done this, 11 reached the Sweet 16 and three played in the national championship game (Michigan in 2018, Texas Tech in 2019 and UConn last season).

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